A Propensity Score Adjustment for Multiple Group Structural Equation Modeling

In the behavioral and social sciences, quasi-experimental and observational studies are used due to the difficulty achieving a random assignment. However, the estimation of differences between groups in observational studies frequently suffers from bias due to differences in the distributions of covariates. To estimate average treatment effects when the treatment variable is binary, Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983a) proposed adjustment methods for pretreatment variables using the propensity score. However, these studies were interested only in estimating the average causal effect and/or marginal means. In the behavioral and social sciences, a general estimation method is required to estimate parameters in multiple group structural equation modeling where the differences of covariates are adjusted. We show that a Horvitz–Thompson-type estimator, propensity score weighted M estimator (PWME) is consistent, even when we use estimated propensity scores, and the asymptotic variance of the PWME is shown to be less than that with true propensity scores. Furthermore, we show that the asymptotic distribution of the propensity score weighted statistic under a null hypothesis is a weighted sum of independent χ² ₁ variables. We show the method can compare latent variable means with covariates adjusted using propensity scores, which was not feasible by previous methods. We also apply the proposed method for correlated longitudinal binary responses with informative dropout using data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA). The results of a simulation study indicate that the proposed estimation method is more robust than the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method, in that PWME does not require the knowledge of the relationships among dependent variables and covariates.     

How do 8‐month‐old infants recognize causality in object motion and that in human action?1

Abstract: In Experiment 1, 8‐month‐old infants were first habituated to the event in which a moving object collided with another behind an occluder, then they were shown the two test events with no occluder: the contact event, in which the two objects actually collided, and the non‐contact event, in which the second object started to move without contact with the first. The infants looked at both events for an equal amount of time. In Experiment 2, in which the first object was a human actor, however, infants looked at the non‐contact event reliably longer than the contact event. In Experiment 3, in which both objects were human actors stood face‐to‐back, infants looked at the non‐contact event longer, whereas in Experiment 4, in which human actors faced toward each other, infants looked at both events equally. In Experiment 5, in which the first actor told the second to go, 10‐month‐old infants looked at both events for an equal amount of time. These results suggest that 8‐ and 10‐month‐old infants appreciate different causal principles between objects and humans, and that, in doing this, they may acknowledge the possibility of communication between humans.     

因果错觉的实验研究

本研究分别从可控情境和不可控情境两方面探讨了在工具性条件反射中,人对因果关系的认知的特点。结果发现：1．在可控情境下。延迟反馈可能导致被试的因果错觉;2、在不可控情境下,被试同样表现出因果错觉：迷信和控制幻觉,并且这种现象具有一定的普遍性;3、提供恰当的外部线索能有效地帮助被试消除已经形成的因果错觉。     

Multiple causal pathways in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder – Do emerging executive and motivational deviations precede symptom development?

The multiple causal pathways model on the etiology of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is well established. However, developmental implications of the model are not yet sufficiently analyzed. The model implies that critical neural and neuropsychological deviations from normative development precede secondarily developing ADHD symptoms. Cognitive, “cool” inhibitory control (CIC) and reward-related, “hot” functions (RRF) are regarded as neuropsychological basic deficits that indicate independent causal pathways. Both functions involve top-down control networks that undergo major normative developmental changes in the preschool period. We formalized the following assumptions in a path model: (a) CIC and RRF predict change in ADHD symptoms in the preschool period, (b) the reverse is not true, and (c) CIC and RRF independently contribute to this prediction. A community-based sample of 125 (71 boys) preschoolers was assessed at at age 4 and 5 years. At each assessment wave, CIC and RRF were measured by a battery of age-appropriate valid tasks. ADHD symptoms were measured by a clinical parent interview. Evaluation of model fit using manifest maximum likelihood parameter estimation clearly supported the hypothesized path model while controlling for gender of child and maternal education level. Thus, regarding the basic deficits of CIC and RRF, the results add evidence on the developmental implications of the multiple causal pathways model. Our findings point to the potential significance of these early emerging characteristics as indicators of risk and as targets for preventive interventions.     

儿童在因果知识领域内的选择性学习

儿童的选择性学习是目前认知发展领域的热点问题。儿童在因果知识领域内的选择性学习(即选择性因果学习)对于回答儿童如何获取知识这个经典问题具有重要意义。儿童的选择性因果学习表现在对他人解释的辨别、评估与采纳上。他们会主动向可靠的信息提供者寻求解释, 并在接收回答后表现出选择性跟进反应。对于他人的回答, 年幼儿童不仅能根据言语线索辨别出解释性陈述, 还能依据解释的结构特征选择更好的陈述加以采纳, 年长儿童甚至可以从不同模式的解释中灵活地学习更适宜的因果知识。未来研究应深入关注解释的其它特征在儿童选择性因果学习中的作用, 进一步探讨选择性因果学习的认知机制。     

关于pCI与因果判断的实验研究

本研究通过三个实验,检验了pCI公式对人类因果判断预测的准确性。实验结果发现,被试的判断与pCI的预测趋势基本一致,但（a＋d）／n的预测似乎更加准确;被试的判断较pCI而言波动较小,且可能在开始判断时需要一段时间形成自己的判断标准或方法,之后的判断与精密的数学计算有共同之处;不同个体判断方式有比较大的差异,但是仍能归为一些类型。     

The Logic of Causal Explanation An Axiomatization

Three-valued (strong-Kleene) modal logic provides the foundation for a new approach to formalizing causal explanation as a relation between partial situations. The approach makes fine-grained distinctions between aspects of events, even between aspects that are equivalent in classical logic. The framework can accommodate a variety of ontologies concerning the relata of causal explanation. I argue, however, for a tripartite ontology of objects corresponding to sentential nominals: facts, tropes (or facta or states of affairs), and situations (or events). I axiomatize the relations and use canonical models to demonstrate completeness.     

Causal Inference from Descriptions of Experimental and Non-Experimental Research: Public Understanding of Correlation-Versus-Causation

The human tendency to conflate correlation with causation has been lamented by various scientists (Kida, 2006; Stanovich, 2009), and vivid examples of it can be found in both the media and peer-reviewed literature. However, there is little systematic data on the extent to which individuals conflate correlation with causation. In three experiments, we presented people with one of four research vignettes generated from the combination of two independent variables: whether the vignette described an experimental or non-experimental design, and whether it revealed a positive or negative association. Upon reading their vignette, participants selected inferences that could be drawn from the findings. Participants drew causal inferences from non-experimental vignettes as often as they did from experimental vignettes, and more frequently for causal statements and directions of association that fit with intuitive notions than for those that did not. We discuss our findings in relation to other biases in human thinking.     

What Influences Subjective Well-Being in Russia?

The relationship between subjective well-being and domain satisfactions is studied in this paper. In the past, different models have been specified. The most commonly used model is the bottom-up model where domain satisfactions affect subjective well-being. The more recent top-down model suggests a reversed relationship. Finally, there is the suggestion that the correlations between these variables can be spurious due to the effect of personality characteristics. Empirical research has shown that different models fit different domains. All three possibilities are evaluated for three domains on the basis of data from the Russet panel. The relationships found are quite different from those found in other studies, thus we conclude that the models may not only vary by domain, but also by country. This result is in line with the idea of a hierarchy of values suggested in older literature.