基于因果关系归类中的实验效应

采用与Rehder实验相同的程序,考察了不同非典型特征值用语和基本比率信息表达方式对基于因果关系归类的影响.实验1结果表明,非典型特征值采用"正常"或典型特征值的相反值并不会对归类中的实验效应产生不同的影响.实验2结果表明,与将基本比率信息表达为具体明确的一个值"75%"相比,"A倾向于具有特征X"的表达方式会削弱一致性效应.突显因果位置效应.这些结果说明.改变两种实验效应强度的是Marsh和Ahn实验中采用的基本比率信息的表达方式而不是Rehder实验中的非典型特征值用语.     

Three indications for the existence of God in causal metaphysics

With the emergence of modern physics a conflict became apparent between the Principle of Sufficient Cause and the Principle of Physical Causal Closure. Though these principles are not logically incompatible, they could no longer be considered to be both true; one of them had to be false. The present paper makes use of this seldom noticed conflict to argue on the basis of considerations of comparative rationality for the truth of causal statements that have at least some degree of philosophico-theological relevance and can be taken to indicate (not prove) the existence of God. The paper’s comparatively modest aim is to establish belief in the existence of God as a rational metaphysical option, not as a rational obligation. In its final section, enriched causal considerations lead to an indication (not proof) of God as that which guarantees the unified continuance of the physical world.     

经验信息与共变信息对判断两原因共同作用的影响

本研究考察了被试在使用经验信息和共变信息进行两原因共同作用因果判断时所具有的特点。研究结果表明:(1)两原因的性质对于被试的选择有着显著影响。当两原因的可信度相等时,更多被试认为两原因都可以引起结果。(2)两原因都不出现时结果出现的概率P(e/~i~j)对于被试的选择没有显著影响。(3)两原因单独出现时结果出现的概率对于被试的选择有着显著的影响,但是这一变量是与两原因的可信程度共同产生影响的。     

Teachers facing school failure: the social valorization of effort in the school context

This paper describes two studies concerning teachers’ classroom interventions facing school failure. The role of two main variables is investigated: the lack of effort as a cause of failure students are held responsible for by teachers, and teacher’s social representations of intelligence. The first study (Study 1) explored the impact of “lack of effort” causal attribution for student’s failure on the intervention strategies adopted by 122 high school teachers. Study 2 analyzed the impact of social representations of intelligence, held by 202 high school teachers, on “lack of effort” causal inference and on behavioral interventions. Results highlight that teachers mostly choose more severe educational interventions with retributive purpose when failure is ascribable to an absence of effort expenditure by the student. Moreover, the findings support the role of teachers’ social representations of intelligence in failure explanations and in educational practices, showing that “lack of effort” attribution and practices with retributive purpose are predicted by the social representation of intelligence “as a gift”. Results are analyzed and discussed by considering the effort as a normative parameter of the school environment. This research was supported financially in part by MURST “University funds, 2004 (Ex 40%)”. Portions of these results were presented at the 8th International Conference on Social Representations, Rome.     

因果力比较范式下对效力PC理论的检验

在用图形方式集中呈现信息的条件下,用因果力大小比较的实验范式检验效力PC理论。233名大学生被试对不同化学药物影响动物基因变异的能力做大小比较判断。结果发现,对单一因果关系因果力大小的比较判断具有以下3个特点：（1）不对称性：在预防原因条件下的因果力判断一般符合效力PC理论,而在产生原因条件下的因果力判断一般不符合效力PC理论;（2）在同时变化协变值DP和结果基率P(E|~C)的产生原因条件下,多数被试使用DP规则。这与概率对比模型的预测相一致,而不支持效力PC理论;（3）在固定协变值DP而只变化结果基率P(E|~C)的产生原因条件下,多数被试使用变异比RP规则。这是目前所有的因果推理理论都不能解释的现象。     

关于pCI与因果判断的实验研究

本研究通过三个实验,检验了pCI公式对人类因果判断预测的准确性。实验结果发现,被试的判断与pCI的预测趋势基本一致,但（a＋d）／n的预测似乎更加准确;被试的判断较pCI而言波动较小,且可能在开始判断时需要一段时间形成自己的判断标准或方法,之后的判断与精密的数学计算有共同之处;不同个体判断方式有比较大的差异,但是仍能归为一些类型。     

New perspectives on the expression of quantity

The expression of quantity is central to many acts of communication, both formal and casual. Expressions of quantity, whether in numbers and percentages or in language, are used to convey information about frequency, certainty, risk, and degrees of association. It has typically been supposed that the many linguistic expressions that convey quantities are merely vague ways of indicating information that would be better conveyed by numbers and percentages, whenever possible. However, we show that such a view is too simplistic and is misleading. Language expressions can be more informative than numerical information alone. Language expressions carry built-in perspectives that affect the inferences and decisions made by listeners and readers. We also show that information presented through numbers (e.g., the depiction of fat content of foods) is not necessarily neutral, but also induces perspective. Failure to recognize effects of perspective may have led to some false conclusions about how people attribute causation.     

Reductionism and Antireductionism: Rights and Wrongs

Abstract: Scholars are divided as to whether reduction should be a central strategy for understanding the world. While reductive analysis is the standard mode of explanation in many areas of science and everyday life, many scholars consider reductionism a sign of “intellectual naïveté and backwardness.” This article makes three points about the proper status of antireductionism: First, reduction is, in fact, a centrally important epistemic strategy. Second, reduction to physics is always possible for all causal properties. Third, there are, nevertheless, reasons why we want science to discover properties and explanations other than reductive physical ones.     

The Logic of Causal Explanation An Axiomatization

Three-valued (strong-Kleene) modal logic provides the foundation for a new approach to formalizing causal explanation as a relation between partial situations. The approach makes fine-grained distinctions between aspects of events, even between aspects that are equivalent in classical logic. The framework can accommodate a variety of ontologies concerning the relata of causal explanation. I argue, however, for a tripartite ontology of objects corresponding to sentential nominals: facts, tropes (or facta or states of affairs), and situations (or events). I axiomatize the relations and use canonical models to demonstrate completeness.     

Causation in a New Old Key

I argue (1) that it is not philosophically significant whether causation is linguistically represented by a predicate or by a sentence connective; (2) that there is no philosophically significant distinction between event- and states-of-affairs-causation; (3) that there is indeed a philosophically significant distinction between agent- and event-causation, and that event-causation must be regarded as an analog of agent-causation. Developing this point, I argue that event-causation's being in the image of agent-causation requires, mainly, (a) that the cause is temporally prior to the effect, (b) that the cause necessitates (is sufficient with necessity) for the effect. Causal necessity is explained as a derivative of nomological necessity, and finally, via a definition of the causal sentence connective, the logic of event-causation is shown to be a part of temporal modal logic.