Naïve Realism,Hallucination, and Causation: A New Response to the Screening Off Problem

This paper sets out a novel response to the ‘screening off’ problem for naïve realism. The aim is to resist the claim (which many naïve realists accept) that the kind of experience involved in hallucinating also occurs during perception, by arguing that there are causal constraints that must be met if an hallucinatory experience is to occur, ones that are never met in perceptual cases. Notably, given this response, it turns out that, contra current orthodoxy, naïve realists need not adopt any particular view about the psychological nature of hallucinatory experience to handle the screening off problem. Consequently, room opens up for naïve realists to endorse whatever theory of hallucinatory experience seems to best capture the distinctive nature of such episodes.     

When does measurement error in covariates impact causal effect estimates? Analytic derivations of different scenarios and an empirical illustration

The average causal treatment effect (ATE) can be estimated from observational data based on covariate adjustment. Even if all confounding covariates are observed, they might not necessarily be reliably measured and may fail to obtain an unbiased ATE estimate. Instead of fallible covariates, the respective latent covariates can be used for covariate adjustment. But is it always necessary to use latent covariates? How well do analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) or propensity score (PS) methods estimate the ATE when latent covariates are used? We first analytically delineate the conditions under which latent instead of fallible covariates are necessary to obtain the ATE. Then we empirically examine the difference between ATE estimates when adjusting for fallible or latent covariates in an applied example. We discuss the issue of fallible covariates within a stochastic theory of causal effects and analyse data of a within-study comparison with recently developed ANCOVA and PS procedures that allow for latent covariates. We show that fallible covariates do not necessarily bias ATE estimates, but point out different scenarios in which adjusting for latent covariates is required. In our empirical application, we demonstrate how latent covariates can be incorporated for ATE estimation in ANCOVA and in PS analysis.     

Probabilistic Cause and the Thirsty Traveler

In this paper I start by briefly presenting an analysis of token cause and of token causal relevance that I developed elsewhere, and then apply it to the famous thirsty traveler riddle. One general outcome of the analysis of causal relevance employed here is that in preemption cases (early or late) the preempted cause is not a cause since it is causally irrelevant to the effect. I consider several variations of the thirsty traveler riddle. In the first variation the first enemy emptied the canteen and the second enemy threw it away. On this variation, the act of neither enemy comes out, on the analysis employed here, as causally relevant to, and thus not as a cause of, the fact that the traveler died, but the conjunction of the two acts is a cause of it. This version is a case of mutual preemption. I argue that it has the same structure as the voting paradox, which thus has an analogous solution. In the standard version, in which the first enemy added poison to the water in the traveler's canteen, the act of the second enemy (who threw the canteen away) comes out, on the analysis used here, as causally relevant to and as a cause of the fact that the traveler died, but the act of the first enemy comes out as neither. I also make a comparison with Lewis' accounts, and discuss alternative treatments of the puzzle such as those of Hart and Honore and of Gavison, Margalit, and Ullmann-Margalit.     

A Pragma-Dialectical Approach of the Analysis and Evaluation of Pragmatic Argumentation in a Legal Context

This paper answers the question how pragmatic argumentation which occurs in a legal context, can be analyzed and evaluated adequately. First, the author surveys various ideas taken from argumentation theory and legal theory on the analysis and evaluation of pragmatic argumentation. Then, on the basis of these ideas, she develops a pragma-dialectical instrument for analyzing and evaluating pragmatic argumentation in a legal context. Finally she demonstrates how this instrument can be used by giving an exemplary analysis and evaluation of pragmatic argumentation in a decision of the Dutch Supreme Court.     

因果变化模式与因果联结强度在幼儿因果推理中的作用

对93名幼儿进行了五种因果变化模式的因果推理题目的测试。结果表明:(1)在不同的因果变化模式下,被试进行因果推理的成绩存在差异,且在对于这五类题目的掌握上具有一定的顺序。(2)被试在同样因果变化模式题目的表现之间具有较高的相似性,而在因果联结强度相同的题目之间则具有显著的差异。(3)被试对于各题目回答的正确率并不随原因与结果联结次数的增多而提高。(4)即使是在观察到的刺激完全一致的情况下,被试的回答仍会因因果变化模式的差异及主试对于题目解释的不同而存在差别。     

Commentary: Prevention/Intervention Trials and Developmental Theory: Commentary on the Fast Track Special Section

Well-conducted prevention and intervention research has the potential to serve the dual ends of enhancing children's adaptive outcomes and elucidating important developmental processes and mechanisms related to change. Admirably, the Fast Track preventive intervention was conceived in accord with explicit developmental theory related to the development of conduct problems. Herein, I consider how the present reports of grade-3 outcomes allow examination of causal processes and developmental mechanisms related to the effects uncovered, featuring the constructs of prediction, moderation, and particularly mediation. The multifaceted, intensive nature of the Fast Track preventive intervention is at once a clinical strength and a liability in terms of isolating causal processes underlying child change. I also consider issues related to the random assignment of the investigation and to policies that may emerge from the findings. In all, research that aims to identify relevant developmental and causal processes must incorporate both experimental and nonexperimental paradigms that are conceptualized from the outset with explanatory purposes in mind.     

The perceptions of the causes of cardiac diseases: a taxonomy

Objective: This study verifies whether the open-ended question of the B-IPQ can collect causal attributions of patients with cardiac diseases, define the more frequent causal attributions reported, classify them and describe the relation between the classification of the causes and patients’ characteristics.

Design: A group of 2011 patients with cardiac diseases was recruited during the first week of cardiac rehabilitation.

Primary outcome measures: Every participant filled in the B-IPQ and the HADS. The qualitative and quantitative analyses of the text using T-LAB identified the most frequent causal attributions and their co-occurrences.

Results: Among the patients, 26% did not recognise any causal attribution. The likelihood that the patients did not provide an answer was increased in older patients, females, patients with lower levels of education and higher levels of depression. Smoking and stress emerged as the most important attributions, followed by genetics, metabolic syndrome, work and nutrition. Four thematic clusters were identified: ‘work and stress’, ‘metabolic syndrome and hypertension’, ‘displeasures and body care’ and ‘heredity and other related diseases’.

Conclusions: This study suggests a classification of the causal attributions in patients with cardiac diseases and identifies thematic patterns and unknown attributions. The themes identified can serve as categories for future closed-ended questions.     

A gradual reformation: empirical character and causal powers in Kant

According to Kant each person has an empirical character, which is ultimately grounded in one’s free choice. The popular Causal Laws interpretation of empirical character holds that it consists of the causal laws governing our psychology. I argue that this reading has difficulties explaining moral change, the ‘gradual reformation’ of our empirical character: Causal laws cannot change and hence cannot be gradually reformed. I propose an alternative Causal Powers interpretation of empirical character, where our empirical character consists of our mind’s causal powers. The resulting picture of empirical character allows for moral change and Kantian weakness of will.     

Religiosity and the formulation of causal attributions

Researchers have suggested that religious individuals engage primarily in intuitive over analytic processing. We investigated a connection between specific aspects of religiosity and the attribution of causation to social and physical events. College undergraduates completed measures of religiosity online and were asked to determine the causes of events that varied in type, outcome, and likelihood, as well as the personality characteristics of the protagonist. Individuals with greater intrinsic religious orientation, fundamentalism, who viewed God as loving, who were more dogmatic, and had an external locus of control were more likely to attribute supernatural phenomena to events compared to those lower in those traits. Supernatural causation was invoked more often when the character of the protagonist and the outcome of social event matched in valence (both positive or both negative) than when they did not match (e.g., character positive, outcome negative). Individuals low and high in religiosity showed similar reasoning, but individuals higher in religiosity were more likely to attribute supernatural causes for positive outcomes and characters in physical scenarios, consistent with their view of God as benevolent.