单一因果关系因果力判断研究述评

简单因果归纳包括自下而上的材料驱动的加工和自上而下的因果知识驱动加工两个方面。简单因果归纳的多数理论模型强调自下而上的材料驱动的加工,这些模型又存在联想解释与计算解释的基本区分。最后,概述了单一因果关系因果力判断研究的基本问题：因果力判断的主要影响因素和过程机制、研究的方法问题。     

Against the Vagueness Argument

In this paper I offer a counterexample to the so called vagueness argument against restricted composition. This will be done in the lines of a recent suggestion by Trenton Merricks, namely by challenging the claim that there cannot be a sharp cut-off point in a composition sequence. It will be suggested that causal powers which emerge when composition occurs can serve as an indicator of such sharp cut-off points. The main example will be the case of a heap. It seems that heaps might provide a very plausible counterexample to the vagueness argument if we accept the idea that four grains of sand is the least number required to compose a heap—the case has been supported by W. D. Hart. My purpose here is not to put forward a new theory of composition, I only wish to refute the vagueness argument and point out that we should be wary of arguments of its form.

Causal uncertainty during initial interactions

Causal uncertainty (CU) refers to persistent doubts people have about their ability to understand causes of social events. Although such confusion about social dynamics should affect social exchanges, previous research has been limited to the realm of social cognition (i.e., computer‐based studies exploring perceptions of hypothetical others). In three studies, we explored CU effects during real‐time social interactions with unacquainted conversational partners. We found that high CU participants perceived their conversations and conversational partners more negatively than did low CU participants and that these negative social perceptions stemmed from an inability to sufficiently reduce their cognitive uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Self-Esteem and Performance on Word Tasks

Abstract

The authors investigated word-task performance of 192 postgraduate Indian women, grouped according to high or low self-esteem, after different causal attributions for failure. The subsequent performance of the low-self-esteem (LSE) participants improved after reattribution training. When the LSE participants were induced to attribute their prior failure to external causes, the external attribution not only reduced their natural tendency toward self-blame but also broke the self-defeating cycle, thereby enabling them to improve their subsequent performance.     

La evaluación de la evidencia en la toma de decisiones complejas

Resumen

En esta investigación se analiza el papel de cómo se representa la evidencia en el proceso de decisión de un miembro de un jurado. Se presenta asimismo un modelo que incorpora una primera etapa inicial de procesamiento en la que se generan ciertas representaciones cognitivas de la evidencia bajo la forma de una historia. Esta etapa inicial viene seguida del cálculo de la decisión evaluando la bondad de ajuste de la representación de la evidencia (la historia) a los distintos tipos de veredicto. Cada uno de los sujetos, extraídos de listas de jurados, proporcionaba su veredicto sobre un juicio de asesinato que se presentaba filmado. A través de una entrevista en profundidad con cada uno de los jurados se obtenían los datos necesarios para el análisis de sus representaciones cognitivas de la evidencia del caso, de los tipos de veredicto presentados en las instrucciones del juez, y de los procedimientos que hubieron de seguir de acuerdo con la ley para llegar a un veredicto final. De acuerdo con nuestra hipótesis, hallamos que la evidencia del juicio se representaba bajo la forma de una historia. Además, las diferencias que se obtuvieron entre jurados respecto de sus representaciones cognitivas se correlacionaron con sus veredictos, aunque otros aspectos del proceso de decisión se correlacionaran (las representaciones de los distintos tipos de veredicto, y la aplicación de las instrucciones respecto del procedimiento para la evaluación de las pruebas). Terminamos concluyendo que una teoría apropiada de la toma de decisiones debe prestar atención a aquellos aspectos cognitivos de la tarea, como por ejemplo los que afectan a la representación de la evidencia.     

La influencia de las creencias causales en la construcción de inferencias predictivas y diagnósticas

Resumen

En este artículo se investiga la habilidad de los sujetos para evaluar el impacto de los datos dentro de un contexto causal. Las investigacion es realizadas sobre el razonamiento humano han mostrado que las teorías causales que las personas poseen sesgan con frecuencia su evaluación de la evidencia. En este experimento se analizan los juicios que emiten los sujetos sobre datos cuando tienen un esquema de razonamiento causal implícito (Cheng y Holyoak, 1985; Kuhn, Amsel y O'Loughlin, 1988) en contextos predictivos y diagnósticos (o abductivos). Para ello, se manipuló el tipo de información presentada a los sujetos, presentá ndole, a un grupo, datos consistentes con sus creencias causales previas y, a otro, datos inconsistentes con sus creencias causales. Los resultados obtenidos señalan que las teorías implícitas de los sujetos no fueron substancialmente modificadas por las condiciones experimentales, aunque sí fueron sensibles a la evidencia. Se discuten estos resultados desde un modelo de interacción creencias causales y datos en el ámbito de las inferencias predictivas y diagnósticas.     

Anaxagoras’s Qualitative Gunk

Are there atoms in the constitution of things? Or is everything made of atomless ‘gunk’ whose proper parts have proper parts? Anaxagoras (fifth-century BC) is the first gunk lover in the history of metaphysics. For him gunk is not only a theoretical possibility that cannot be ruled out in principle (as it is for modern gunk lovers). Rather, it is a view that follows cogently from his metaphysical analysis of the physical world of our experience. What is distinctive about Anaxagoras’s take on gunk is not only what motives the view, but also the particular type of gunk that he develops. It is qualitative gunk, rather than material gunk. Anaxagoras’s ontology was developed before matter was ‘invented’. It includes quality tropes only; they are gunky. The resulting metaphysical view – a world of qualitative gunk – is new, in the sense of being hitherto unexplored; and yet, it is derived from Anaxagoras’s writings. Drawing on Anaxagoras’s insights, this paper offers a sketch of what qualitative gunk ontology looks like; it explores what motives it; and it highlights the differences of qualitative gunk from material gunk.     

行为决策中的基线比例忽略：心理机制与影响因素

基线比例忽略是指个体进行决策和判断时不能充分利用或者忽略基线比例而偏好新信息的现象。该现象普遍存在于日常行为与决策的许多领域,尤其显著表现在临床医疗领域,因此对这一现象的研究具有重要的应用价值。目前,基线比例忽略的心理机制主要有双加工理论和因果贝叶斯框架等。基线比例忽略的影响因素主要包括认知能力、年龄、基线比例的表述形式等。未来的研究需要从基线比例忽略的神经机制、影响因素以及应用研究的拓展等方面着手。     

No time for powers

In this paper, I will investigate the compatibility of different metaphysics of time with the powers view. At first sight, it seems natural to combine some sort of powers ontology with a dynamical view of time, since the dynamic character of powers appears to account for the progression of time. Accordingly, it has been argued that a powers ontology, which is supposed to be inherently dynamic and productive, is incompatible with eternalism, which does not allow for any sort of real productivity. After having reviewed these arguments, I will argue that the powers view is not only incompatible with eternalism but also with the moving spotlight view and growing block theory. I will go on to argue that the specific notion of activity that the powers ontology provides is not straightforwardly compatible with presentism either.