De‐escalation after repeated negative feedback: emergent expectations of failure

Research on willingness to make marginal investments (e.g., the escalation and sunk cost literatures) has often focused on project completion decisions, such as the “radar‐blank plane.” This paper discusses a fundamentally different type of marginal investment decision, that of couples deciding whether to continue infertility treatment in the face of repeated failures. Two experiments based on this context show that when people face multiple independent chances to achieve a valued goal but are unsure about chances of success, premature quitting or “de‐escalation” is the norm. Repeated negative feedback appears to induce individuals to see each successive failure as more and more diagnostic. As a result, even a short series of failed attempts evokes beliefs that future attempts will also fail. These emergent expectations of failure, generated by causal attribution processes, associative learning, and/or discounting of ambiguous information, appear very compelling and induce people to forgo profitable marginal investments. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

学习障碍儿童社会技能缺失成因假说

研究者一直试图探讨学习障碍与社会技能缺失之间的联系,从而揭示导致学习障碍儿童社会技能缺失的原因。这一研究领域出现了四种假说：因果假说、共存假说、相关假说和同病率假说。     

用不同外部表征方式集中呈现信息条件下的因果力判断

在分别用文字陈述、表格和图形三种外部表征方式集中呈现因果信息的条件下,用直接估计因果力大小的实验范式考察单一因果关系因果力估计的特点,检验概率对比模型,效力PC理论和pCI规则。让287名大学生被试估计不同化学药物影响动物基因变异的能力。结果发现,对单一因果关系因果力估计具有以下4个特点：⑴不对称性：在预防原因条件下的因果力估计较多符合效力PC理论,而在产生原因条件下的因果力估计一般符合概率对比模型;⑵文字陈述、表格和图形三种信息外部表征方式,不影响产生原因条件下的因果力估计,但影响预防原因条件下的因果力估计。在预防原因条件下,与文字陈述和表格表征相比,图形表征会促使更多被试按效力PC理论来做因果力估计;⑶没有被试使用pCI规则;⑷被试估计因果力所使用的规则存在明显的个体差异。     

学前儿童朴素生物学理论及其获得机制

学前儿童朴素生物学理论发展的研究近20年来一直是儿童认知发展研究的热点。Carey等主张学前儿童的生物概念系统是从心理概念系统中分离出来的由一个系统到另一个系统的根本性概念转变,儿童还没有一个包含动植物的整合的生物系统。但另一些研究主张学前儿童能够对生物现象进行本体区分并形成内在一致的生物学因果解释,拥有朴素生物学理论,该理论是在一个概念系统（生物学概念系统）中逐渐的连续性变化过程。目前整合的观点认为儿童朴素生物学理论在童年早期就独立于心理学理论,但在分离一开始的一段时间里还要受心理学的影响。     

Where science starts: spontaneous experiments in preschoolers' exploratory play

Probabilistic models of expected information gain require integrating prior knowledge about causal hypotheses with knowledge about possible actions that might generate data relevant to those hypotheses. Here we looked at whether preschoolers (mean: 54 months) recognize “action possibilities” (affordances) in the environment that allow them to isolate variables when there is information to be gained. By manipulating the physical properties of the stimuli, we were able to affect the degree to which candidate variables could be isolated; by manipulating the base rate of candidate causes, we were able to affect the potential for information gain. Children’s exploratory play was sensitive to both manipulations: given unambiguous evidence children played indiscriminately and rarely tried to isolate candidate causes; given ambiguous evidence, children both selected (Experiment 1) and designed (Experiment 2) informative interventions.     

Philosophy and Science Dialogue: Mental Causation

This paper is a dialogue between Thalia Wheatley and Terence Horgan. Horgan maintains that philosophy is a broadly empirical discipline, and that philosophical theorizing about how concepts work treats certain intuitions about proper concept-usage as empirical data. He holds that the possibility of strong multiple realizability undermines the psychophysical identity theory. He holds that the concept of causation is governed by implicit contextual parameters, and that this dissolves Kim’s problem of “causal exclusion.” He holds that the concept of free will is governed by implicit contextual parameters, and that free-will attributions are often true, in typical contexts, even if determinism is true. Thalia Wheatley holds that the concept of multiple realizability hinges on the level of abstraction discussed and that neuroscientific data does not yet support multiple realizability of mental states from specific, high resolution brain states. She also holds that compatibilism redefines the concept of free will in ways that bear little resemblance to the common understanding―that of being free to choose otherwise in the moment. She maintains that this folk understanding is incompatible with the brain as a physical system and is not rescued by concepts of context and capacity.     

DIVINING “DIVINE ACTION” IN THEOLOGY‐AND‐SCIENCE: A REVIEW ESSAY

The topic of divine action has been central to the theology‐and‐science discussion over the last twenty years. Some tentative conclusions are currently being drawn in light of research initiatives that have been engaged on this topic. I review three recent books that have responded in some way to the ongoing discussion. These responses show that, notwithstanding the advances made in the conversation, much work remains to be done before a plausible theory of divine action emerges at the interface of theology and science.     

IMAGINATION'S GRIP ON SCIENCE

Abstract: In part because “imagination” is a slippery notion, its exact role in the production of scientific knowledge remains unclear. There is, however, one often explicit and deliberate use of imagination by scientists that can be (and has been) studied intensively by epistemologists and historians of science: thought experiments. The main goal of this article is to document the varieties of thought experimentation, not so much in terms of the different sciences in which they occur but rather in terms of the different functions they fulfil. I argue that thought experimentation (and hence imagination) plays a role not only in theory choice but in singular causal analysis and scientific discovery as well. I pinpoint, moreover, some of the rules governing the use of thought experiments in theory choice and in singular causal analysis, that is, some of the criteria they should meet in order to fulfil those functions successfully.     

Facets of the linear ordering polytope: A unification for the fence family through weighted graphs

The binary choice polytope appeared in the investigation of the binary choice problem formulated by Guilbaud and Block and Marschak. It is nowadays known to be the same as the linear ordering polytope from operations research (as studied by Grötschel, Jünger and Reinelt).The central problem is to find facet-defining linear inequalities for the polytope. Fence inequalities constitute a prominent class of such inequalities (Cohen and Falmagne; Grötschel, Jünger and Reinelt). Two different generalizations exist for this class: the reinforced fence inequalities of Leung and Lee, and independently Suck, and the stability-critical fence inequalities of Koppen. Together with the fence inequalities, these inequalities form the fence family. Building on previous work on the biorder polytope by Christophe, Doignon and Fiorini, we provide a new class of inequalities which unifies all inequalities from the fence family. The proof is based on a projection of polytopes. The new class of facet-defining inequalities is related to a specific class of weighted graphs, whose definition relies on a curious extension of the stability number. We investigate this class of weighted graphs which generalize the stability-critical graphs.