Improving judgmental forecasts with judgmental bootstrapping and task feedback support

This study examines the utility of two widely advocated methods for supporting judgmental forecasts—providing task feedback and providing judgmental bootstrapping support. In a simulated laboratory based experiment that focused on producing composite sales forecasts from three individual components, we compared the effectiveness of these two methods in improving final judgmental forecasts. In the presence of cognitive feedback task, feedback led to better forecasts than providing judgmental bootstrap forecasts. Simply providing bootstrap forecasts was of no additional benefit over a control condition. This was true in terms of the Brunswik Lens model measures of achievement, knowledge, and consistency, and in terms of forecast accuracy. This occurred both in stable environments and when special events (unusual one‐time events requiring adjustments to the forecasts) arose. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

任务价值研究的回顾与展望

文章阐述了以往研究者对任务价值及内部结构的界定,回顾了任务价值研究的历史,介绍了任务价值研究的现状,讨论了目前任务价值研究中存在的问题和未来的发展趋势。     

中国文化中自尊结构的内隐社会认知研究

本研究同时运用外显的自陈式量表和自行设计的内隐联想测验(IAT)及Go/No-go联想任务(GNAT)来研究中国大学生的自尊结构,结果表明：(1)运用内隐联想测验和Go／No-go联想任务来测量内隐自尊是敏感的;(2)中国文化中自尊是一个双重的结构：包括一个内隐的成分和一个外显的成分。(3)自尊在内隐和外显两个层面上都不存在性别差异。     

有关条件推理中概率效应的实验研究

通过预备实验选取了四种不同条件概率的条件规则和四种不同前后件概率组合的条件规则作为实验材料,以大学生为被试,考察了两种概率因素(条件概率和前后件概率)对条件推理的演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)以及变通形式(四卡问题)的影响。结果表明,两种概率因素对四种条件推理的影响都非常显著,研究进一步证实了人们对四种推理的认可程度主要与范畴前提的概率成正比的结论;但概率因素对四卡问题的解决影响不明显。     

同时线索化条件下儿童返回抑制的容量

返回抑制是对先前注意过的目标再次做出反应的时候反应时延长的一种现象。返回抑制具有一定的生物学意义,忽略已经注意过的位置(或客体),使得有机体可以更加有效的注意新的内容。基于这一点,返回抑制现象应该可以在多个已经注意过的位置出现,这便是返回抑制的容量问题。在本研究中,采用同时呈现的线索化方式,考查8岁、10岁儿童在不同的实验任务——觉察任务和辨别任务——中的返回抑制容量。结果发现觉察任务中,10岁组儿童和8岁组儿童最多在5个线索化位置上出现返回抑制,但8岁年龄组的返回抑制容量缺乏稳定;辨别任务中,10岁年龄组只在一个位置上出现返回抑制,而8岁年龄组并没有明显返回抑制现象出现。年龄因素和任务类型对儿童返回抑制容量都产生了一定程度的影响。     

汉语无关联词因果复句的命题表征项目互换效应

采用句子—图画验证任务探讨了汉语无关联词因果复句的命题表征项目互换效应。结果表明 ,汉语无关联词因果复句的项目表达顺序为“结果→原因”时 ,所形成的命题表征中项目发生互换 ,其结果为“原因→结果”。本研究结果初步表明 ,在没有关联词的语法提示条件下 ,读者在理解汉语无关联词的因果复句的过程中能够根据其语义内容按照“原因→结果”固定方向进行系列的认知加工     

Integration versus separation in Stroop‐like counting interference tasks1

Abstract: Two versions of a Stroop‐like counting interference task were compared to examine how irrelevant information is ignored. In the integrated task, participants enumerated digits (inconsistent condition) or letters (neutral condition) while attempting to ignore the identity of the characters. In the newly created separated task, participants enumerated asterisks while attempting to ignore a single digit (inconsistent condition) or letter (neutral condition) at fixation. Interference (longer responses in the inconsistent condition than in the neutral condition) was small but significant in both tasks but was not reduced by separation. Contrasted with the pattern in the color–word Stroop task, these results suggest that dimensional separation has different effects on interference depending on the overall amount of interference.     

领导-部属交换的多维结构及对工作绩效和情境绩效的影响

通过两项研究,对领导-部属交换的结构及其对员工的工作绩效和情境绩效进行了探讨。采用探索性因素分析、验证性因素分析、分层回归分析等方法对来自不同企业的员工及其主管的问卷调查结果进行了分析。 结果表明,领导-部属交换是一个多维度的结构,由情感、忠诚、贡献和专业尊敬四个维度组成。单维度的领导-部属交换和多维度的领导-部属交换都对员工的工作绩效和情境绩效具有预测作用,但多维度领导-部属交换的预测作用更强。     

有关条件推理认知机制的概率理论

条件推理主要有两种研究范式：演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)和变通形式(四卡问题)。已往研究主要探讨了内容因素、情境因素以及元认知因素等对条件推理的影响,形成了若干理论模型和观点。近来、Oaksford等人研究了概率因素对条件推理的影响．提出了条件概率模型。本文对这种新的研究取向作了详细的介绍和评价,并对未来研究进行了展望。     

Task formats and ambiguity aversion

This paper proposes that task format (choosing or rejecting) moderates the effect of ambiguity aversion. Specifically, an ambiguous option is more attractive in a choosing task than in a rejecting task compared with a risky option. The author performed three experiments to test the propositions. In the first experiment, participants showed less ambiguity aversion when they had to choose a preferred option (risky or ambiguous) compared with when they had to reject an option they preferred less. In the second experiment with a monetary incentive, participants had to form a cash‐equivalent estimate for both a risky gamble and an ambiguous gamble in a traditional Ellsberg scenario. The ambiguous option emerged as more attractive than the risky option in the choosing task compared with the rejecting task. The third experiment showed that the participants' decision rationale mediated the effect of the task format on choice. These three experiments support the proposition that task formats moderate the effect of ambiguity aversion. On the basis of the findings, the author provides suggestions for practice and further research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.