决策过程中参照点效应研究述评

Kahneman和Tversky提出的“参照点效应”概念,对决策者的认知编码和信息整合方式做出了合理的解释,并对传统的理性决策理论提出了挑战。近年来,关于参照点效应的研究也一直受到众多学者的重视。文章系统阐述了参照点效应的相关概念和最新研究进展,并提出了参照点效应未来研究的4个趋势：日益重视多重参照点效应的研究、开始关注动态决策中的参照点变化机制、重视群体决策过程中的参照点效应研究、注重在现实决策任务中验证和发展参照点效应的相关理论     

绝句韵律边界的认知加工及其脑电效应

语言理解过程中, 句子内部的韵律短语边界会诱发反映韵律短语终止的特异性脑电成分终止正漂移 (CPS, closure positive shift), 而句末语调短语边界则会诱发反映句法终止和完整语言单元结束的脑电效应P3。研究采用汉语特有的语篇绝句, 考察了听者加工绝句中各句末语调短语边界的认知过程及其诱发的脑电效应。结果发现五言绝句内部各语调短语边界分别诱发了时间进程、头皮分布和波幅均相同的CPS, 表明语篇内部韵律边界加工不受其所处语篇位置的影响; 五言和七言绝句末的韵律边界则分别诱发了一个P3, 并且前者诱发的P3波幅小于后者, 而二者在时间进程和头皮分布上不存在差异。本研究表明, 句末语调短语边界诱发何种脑电效应与其承担的功能有关, 既表示前面信息终止又预期后面信息出现的句末边界会诱发CPS, 而只表示信息终止的句末边界则会诱发P3。     

跨文化判断与决策(英文)

本文对判断和决策研究领域所发现的跨文化差异进行了回顾。鉴于大多数判断和决策的跨文化研究都集中于对亚洲和西方文化的比较,本文也主要关注这方面的研究发现。具体来说,本文回顾了在概率判断及信心、风险知觉、冒险行为、消费者行为以及经济判断和决策中所存在的跨文化差异。综述结果表明尽管亚洲人和西方人的判断和决策行为存在很大的跨文化差异,研究也发现了显著的文化内差异。目前关于判断和决策的跨文化差异的研究还相对匮乏,未来还需要更多的研究来进一步了解判断和决策行为的跨文化差别及机制。     

关于临床决策问题

医生在临床工作中做出明确诊断,并据此给予有效的处理均属于决策过程。制定决策的整个过程,同时也是进行决策思维的过程。近年来高新技术的迅猛发展以及医疗费用急剧增加,使制定决策更加复杂。如何进行正确的决策思维,做出最切实可行的和最佳的决策,对避免决策的盲目性、局限性及惰性具有重要的现实意义。     

Case markers as clause boundary inducers in Japanese

The present paper provides evidence that the processing of verb final clauses proceeds incrementally based on local information that becomes available with each word. The results of three self-paced reading experiments are reported in support of the proposal that NPs in Japanese are associated within clauses before a verb is processed. It is argued that a clause boundary is posited whenever case markers prevent two NPs from being part of the same clause, and slow reading times at the second NP are used as supporting evidence. Moreover, clause boundaries induced by case marking can facilitate processing at later points in the sentence as attested to by faster reading times at relative-clause heads. Contrary to previous findings that argued against a subclass of head-driven parsers, the present results are not easily reconcilable with any type of model that delays parsing decisions until a verb is available in the input sentence.     

Interruptions improve choice performance in gray jays: prolonged information processing versus minimization of costly errors

Under the assumption that selection favors minimization of costly errors, erroneous choice may be common when its fitness cost is low. According to an adaptive-choice model, this cost depends on the rate at which an animal encounters the choice: the higher this rate, the smaller the cost of choosing a less valuable option. Errors should thus be more common when interruptions to foraging are shorter. A previous experiment supported this prediction: gray jays, Perisoreus canadensis, were more error prone when subjected to shorter delays to access to food rewards. This pattern, though, is also predicted by an attentional-constraints model. Because the subjects were able to inspect the rewards during delays, their improved performance when subjected to longer delays could have been a byproduct of the experimentally prolonged opportunity for information processing. To evaluate this possibility, a follow-up experiment manipulated both delay to access and whether rewards could be inspected during delays. Depriving jays of the opportunity to inspect rewards (using opaque lids) induced only a small, nonsignificant increase in error rate. This effect was independent of length of delay and so the jays' improved performance when subjected to longer delays was not simply a byproduct of prolonged information processing. More definitively, even when the jays were prevented from inspecting rewards during delays, their performance improved when subjected to longer delays. The findings are thus consistent with the adaptive-choice model. Electronic Publication     

Individual postdecision processes in group settings

In two experiments Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Diff Con) (Svenson, 1992) was used to investigate individual postdecision making processes in three-member groups. It was predicted that in groups in which the subjects preferred different alternatives (conflict groups), subjects would consolidate their own preferred alternative, and not the group's final decision. A second hypothesis was that no consolidation would be indicated in groups in which all members preferred the same alternative (non-conflict groups). The results showed that in conflict groups, the members who gave up their preferred alternative (minority members) consolidated their own preference, thereby significantly regretting the group decision. In contrast, members who got their own will through in the majority decision (majority members) showed no consolidation of the group decision. The corresponding pattern of results was replicated in a second experiment, using a different decision situation. The results indicated that perceptions of social support, agreement in a group and decreasing responsibility for a group's decision, could all partly substitute consolidation by attractiveness restructuring.     

Diagnosing agoraphobia in the context of panic disorder: examining the effect of DSM-IV criteria on diagnostic decision-making

A diagnostic and statistical manual (DSM)-IV diagnosis of agoraphobia in the context of panic disorder (PD) is based on three nosologically sufficient criteria: (1) avoidance, (2) use of companions, and (3) endurance of situations despite distress. Therefore, an agoraphobia diagnosis can be made across an extremely broad range of cases including when there are no avoidance behaviors (e.g., the patient endures the situation). It was hypothesized that clinicians do not weight these criteria equally and that the DSMs individual, sufficient criteria lead to poor inter-rater reliability. Clinicians (N=48) rated hypothetical patients with symptom profiles emphasizing each of these three criteria. Consistent with expectation, clinicians differentially weighted these criteria. Avoidance was relatively more apt to produce a diagnosis when only one criterion was emphasized in clinical vignettes. Inter-rater reliability was poor in instances when only one sufficient criterion was highlighted. Knowledge concerning DSM criteria resulted in a greater rate of agoraphobia endorsement, but knowledge did not account for the overall pattern of findings.     

The influence of adults' actions on children's inferences about word meanings

This article first establishes the effect of adults' actions on children's inferences about the shape and material of solid objects, based on data from Japanese 2-, 4-, and 6-year-olds. Japanese 2-year-olds are already sensitive to adults' actions in making inferences, and children become more adept at this as they become older. The invariance of the phenomenon of the effect of actions is then discussed in terms of three of its aspects: across age groups, across languages (the universality of the effect), and across tasks in lexical development. It is suggested that while specific linguistic characteristics (e.g., the means of individuation of entities), and complexity of object shape probably influence the effect of actions, action effects may have a potentially invariant/universal aspect.