确定、不确定及风险状态下选择反转:“齐当别”选择方式的解释

应用广义“弱优势”（weak dominance）模型检验确定、不确定及风险状态下的选择反转现象。该模型将人们的二择一选择行为描述为一种搜寻一备择方案在主观上优越于另一备择方案的过程。即：在甲方案在某一维度上优越于乙方案,而乙方案在另一维度上优越于甲方案的情况下,为了利用“弱优势”（weak dominance）原则达成决策,人们必须在一维度上将两者间较小的差异人为地“齐同”掉,而在另一维度上将“辨别”两者间较大的差异作为最终选择的依据。因此,在每次选择时,如果不认为最大的差异都是来自同一维度,就会导致选择反转。此项研究设计了一“匹配”任务,并借此检验,在不同的决策状态下,判断两备择方案在各维度上的差异是否能预测人们的重复选择变异。总的测试-再测试结果支持“齐当别”选择方式的解释。其发现表明：重复选择之所以可能是一致的,并不是因为每次都认定被选中的备择方案具有最大值,而是因为每次选择都认定最大的差异来自一固定的维度。     

赖尔的行为主义心身关系论辩分析

现代哲学家赖尔把笛卡尔的学说称为"机器中的幽灵说",认为笛卡尔犯了范畴错误,并提出了自己所谓的心的理论。但是赖尔虽然正确指出了笛卡尔的错误,却仍然无法解决身心问题,其自身理论面临着困境。赖尔将心的本质理解为行为,然而哲学家对赖尔的批评表明对心的词汇的物理行为分析是不可能成功的。赖尔的困境是其哲学本体论的必然结果,在赖尔那里还是把世界描述为"心-物"的二元对立,而在二元论框架内是无法解决心身问题的。     

二分数据的多层线性模型:原理与应用

分类数据的多层线性模型在我国的心理学研究中鲜有使用。本研究旨在将这种模型引入到我国心理学研究之中。论文首先介绍了二分数据的多层线性模型的原理和假设条件、参数估计和假设检验,然后以6187名小学生为被试,采用二分变量的多层线性模型,说明了个体因素和学校因素对儿童攻击行为的影响,并对分析结果进行了解释。     

Adjusting for information inflation due to local dependency in moderately large item clusters

When multiple items are clustered around a reading passage, the local independence assumption in item response theory is often violated. The amount of information contained in an item cluster is usually overestimated if violation of local independence is ignored and items are treated as locally independent when in fact they are not. In this article we provide a general method that adjusts for the inflation of information associated with a test containing item clusters. A computational scheme was presented for the evaluation of the factor of adjustment for clusters in the restrictive case of two items per cluster, and the general case of more than two items per cluster. The methodology was motivated by a study of the NAEP Reading Assessment. We present a simulated study along with an analysis of a NAEP data set.The research was supported under the National Assessment of Educational Progress (Grant No. R999G30002) as administered by the Office of Educational Research and Improvement, U.S. Department of Education. This work was started when the author was at the Division of Statistics and Psychometrics at the Educational Testing Service. The author thanks Juliet Shaffer, Bob Mislevy, Eric Bradlow, three reviewers and an associate editor for their helpful comments on the paper.     

Outranking Relations: Do They Have Special Properties?

Outranking relations are most often built using a concordance–discordance principle. Such relations are in general neither transitive nor complete. This is not to say that the concordance–discordance principle does not impose some ‘structural’ restrictions on these relations. We show why this question may be of some importance for analysing the various techniques designed to build a recommendation on the basis of such relations. These restrictions are studied for the ELECTRE and PROMETHEE methods.     

An interactive procedure for learning about preferences: Case study of a portfolio manager

This paper presents a new interactive procedure for learning and interpreting the choices available to a decision maker confronted with a discrete decision problem. The procedure guides a decision maker through the evaluation process, has an ability ‘to learn’ from previous choices and generates a set of rules that describe a decision maker's posterior preferences. The validity of the procedure was tested by creating an investment portfolio. The emphasis of the application is on assisting the portfolio manager to determine the decision consistency of a given portfolio selection process.     

A Data Analysis Method for Using Longitudinal Binary Outcome Data from a SMART to Compare Adaptive Interventions

Sequential multiple assignment randomized trials (SMARTs) are a useful and increasingly popular approach for gathering information to inform the construction of adaptive interventions to treat psychological and behavioral health conditions. Until recently, analysis methods for data from SMART designs considered only a single measurement of the outcome of interest when comparing the efficacy of adaptive interventions. Lu et al. proposed a method for considering repeated outcome measurements to incorporate information about the longitudinal trajectory of change. While their proposed method can be applied to many kinds of outcome variables, they focused mainly on linear models for normally distributed outcomes. Practical guidelines and extensions are required to implement this methodology with other types of repeated outcome measures common in behavioral research. In this article, we discuss implementation of this method with repeated binary outcomes. We explain how to compare adaptive interventions in terms of various summaries of repeated binary outcome measures, including average outcome (area under the curve) and delayed effects. The method is illustrated using an empirical example from a SMART study to develop an adaptive intervention for engaging alcohol- and cocaine-dependent patients in treatment. Monte Carlo simulations are provided to demonstrate the good performance of the proposed technique.     

Factors Impacting on Career Choices of Technikon Students From Previously Disadvantaged High Schools

Career development is a socially constructed process involving complex interactions among different structures, forces, and systems all constituting spheres of influence. The purpose of this study was to investigate factors that influence career decisions. Eighty respondents (40 males and 40 females with mean age of 22 years) participated in the study. Results revealed that family variables of parental high expectations of children and appropriate communications within the family, as well as factors such as prestige statuses of some occupations, school curricular subjects, academic performance, teacher influences, and peer pressure had strong positive influences on career choices. Barriers to career choices identified included finance, lack of appropriate information, poor academic performance, and unsatisfactory career counseling services. Results suggest need for a better approach to career education in schools and counseling services that are adaptive to social, economic, and cultural contexts.     

Mood effects on dominated choices: Positive mood induces departures from logical rules

In two studies, we investigated the role of mood states in dominated behavioral choices. Past research has shown that mood effects on judgment and decision‐making can be pervasive. Yet, the role of mood in dominated choices has so far been neglected. The present research represents a first empirical examination of mood effects on dominated choices. We measured (Study 1) or manipulated (Study 2) mood states in participants who made a series of choices in a gambling game. In this choice task without trade‐offs, participants were provided with information about the outcomes and probabilities associated with each choice option. The strategy to maximize the expected mean outcome implied the application of a straightforward and logical rule: Always choose the dominant option with the highest expected value. It has been argued in the literature that mood should have little or no impact when preferences are clear or strong. Still, we expected that mood states would affect even these dominated choices, building on previous work that showed that positive mood states enhance flexibility, creativity, and explorative behavior. The results showed that decisions made in a happier mood were less often in accordance with the logical rule than decisions made in a sadder mood. To conclude, happier mood states are associated to a lesser extent with decisions in accordance with a rule‐based strategy that maximizes expected mean outcomes in dominated choices. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.