Identifying expectations about the strength of causal relationships

When we try to identify causal relationships, how strong do we expect that relationship to be? Bayesian models of causal induction rely on assumptions regarding people’s a priori beliefs about causal systems, with recent research focusing on people’s expectations about the strength of causes. These expectations are expressed in terms of prior probability distributions. While proposals about the form of such prior distributions have been made previously, many different distributions are possible, making it difficult to test such proposals exhaustively. In Experiment 1 we used iterated learning—a method in which participants make inferences about data generated based on their own responses in previous trials—to estimate participants’ prior beliefs about the strengths of causes. This method produced estimated prior distributions that were quite different from those previously proposed in the literature. Experiment 2 collected a large set of human judgments on the strength of causal relationships to be used as a benchmark for evaluating different models, using stimuli that cover a wider and more systematic set of contingencies than previous research. Using these judgments, we evaluated the predictions of various Bayesian models. The Bayesian model with priors estimated via iterated learning compared favorably against the others. Experiment 3 estimated participants’ prior beliefs concerning different causal systems, revealing key similarities in their expectations across diverse scenarios.     

Bayesian parameter estimation in the Expectancy Valence model of the Iowa gambling task

The purpose of the popular Iowa gambling task is to study decision making deficits in clinical populations by mimicking real-life decision making in an experimental context. Busemeyer and Stout [Busemeyer, J. R., & Stout, J. C. (2002). A contribution of cognitive decision models to clinical assessment: Decomposing performance on the Bechara gambling task. Psychological Assessment, 14, 253-262] proposed an “Expectancy Valence” reinforcement learning model that estimates three latent components which are assumed to jointly determine choice behavior in the Iowa gambling task: weighing of wins versus losses, memory for past payoffs, and response consistency. In this article we explore the statistical properties of the Expectancy Valence model. We first demonstrate the difficulty of applying the model on the level of a single participant, we then propose and implement a Bayesian hierarchical estimation procedure to coherently combine information from different participants, and we finally apply the Bayesian estimation procedure to data from an experiment designed to provide a test of specific influence.     

A longitudinal study of student-teacher relationship quality, difficult temperament, and risky behavior from childhood to early adolescence

This study examines the mediating role of student-teacher relationship quality (conflict and closeness) in grades 4, 5, and 6 on the relation between background characteristics, difficult temperament at age 4½ and risky behavior in 6th grade. The longitudinal sample of participants (N = 1156) was from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate paths from (a) background characteristics to student-teacher relationship quality and risky behavior, (b) temperament to student-teacher relationship quality and risky behavior, and (c) student-teacher relationship quality to risky behavior. Findings indicate that students' family income, gender, receipt of special services, and more difficult temperament were associated with risky behavior. In addition, student-teacher conflict was a mediator. Students with more difficult temperaments were more likely to report risky behavior and to have conflict in their relationships with teachers. More conflict predicted more risky behavior. Closer student-teacher relationships were associated with less risky behavior. Results suggest negative relationships, specifically student-teacher relationships, may increase the risk that certain adolescents will engage in risky behavior.     

Learning letter names and sounds: Effects of instruction, letter type, and phonological processing skill

Preschool-age children (N = 58) were randomly assigned to receive instruction in letter names and sounds, letter sounds only, or numbers (control). Multilevel modeling was used to examine letter name and sound learning as a function of instructional condition and characteristics of both letters and children. Specifically, learning was examined in light of letter name structure, whether letter names included cues to their respective sounds, and children’s phonological processing skills. Consistent with past research, children receiving letter name and sound instruction were most likely to learn the sounds of letters whose names included cues to their sounds regardless of phonological processing skills. Only children with higher phonological skills showed a similar effect in the control condition. Practical implications are discussed.     

TEM observation of oxide scale formed on a Ti–Al–Zr alloy oxidized at 360°C in alkaline steam

Ti–Al–Zr alloy has been oxidized at 360°C in alkaline steam at a pressure of 10.3?±?0.7?MPa. Cross-sectional transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations indicated that the oxide scale of Ti–Al–Zr alloy was composed of outer and inner subscales, in which the outer layer consists of anatase-TiO₂ and the inner layer a mixture of TiO and Ti₂O. The thickness of the Ti₂O, TiO and anatase-TiO₂ were approximately 50, 100 and 400?nm, respectively. These results were confirmed by X-ray energy dispersive spectrometry (EDS) measurements. The enhanced corrosion of titanium alloys in LiOH solution is attributed to a high hexagonal Ti₂O to tetragonal TiO₂ phase transformation rate induced by the substitution of Li⁺ for Ti⁴⁺ in the oxide layer.     

新生市民主动发展倾向对城市生活适应性的影响:社会支持的中介效应

为探究主动发展倾向和社会支持对新生市民城市生活适应性的作用机制,本研究构建了结构方程模型.采用两个自编量表和一个现成量表,运用两阶段抽样调查法,在作为统筹城乡发展试验区的重庆市范围内,对已经取得城镇户口的新生市民进行问卷调查,获得有效样本322人.对采集的数据运用统计分析软件SPSS17.0和AMOS18.0进行数据分析和模型检验.结果表明,城市化新生市民的主动发展倾向和社会支持均对新生市民的城市生活适应具有显著影响,其中,社会支持在主动发展倾向对城市生活适应影响中具有部分中介作用.     

Exploring Pathways From Television Viewing to Academic Achievement in School Age Children

The author's purpose in this study was to test 4 hypotheses that proposed different paths for the influences of children's television viewing on their academic achievement. Data were drawn from the 1997 Child Development Supplement (CDS) to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). The population for this study included 1,203 children between the ages of 6 and 13 years from the CDS-PSID data set. The author used structural equation modeling to test pathways from children's television viewing to their academic achievement. The author assumed that children's television viewing hindered their academic achievement by reducing certain traits that related to academic achievement. Results showed that 3 hypothetical models fit the data—the time-displacement hypothesis, the mental effort-passivity hypothesis, and the attention-arousal hypothesis. A 4th hypothetical model, the learning-information hypothesis, which proposed that children's television viewing practices stimulate their academic achievement, was not supported. In sum, children who watched more television tended to spend less time doing homework, studying, and reading for leisure. In addition, their behaviors became more impulsive, which resulted in an eventual decrease in their academic achievement.     

Latent variables should remain as such: Evidence from a Monte Carlo study

Use of subject scores as manifest variables to assess the relationship between latent variables produces attenuated estimates. This has been demonstrated for raw scores from classical test theory (CTT) and factor scores derived from factor analysis. Conclusions on scores have not been sufficiently extended to item response theory (IRT) theta estimates, which are still recommended for estimation of relationships between latent variables. This is because IRT estimates appear to have preferable properties compared to CTT, while structural equation modeling (SEM) is often advised as an alternative to scores for estimation of the relationship between latent variables. The present research evaluates the consequences of using subject scores as manifest variables in regression models to test the relationship between latent variables. Raw scores and three methods for obtaining theta estimates were used and compared to latent variable SEM modeling. A Monte Carlo study was designed by manipulating sample size, number of items, type of test, and magnitude of the correlation between latent variables. Results show that, despite the advantage of IRT models in other areas, estimates of the relationship between latent variables are always more accurate when SEM models are used. Recommendations are offered for applied researchers.     

Specificity of Task Constraints and Effects of Visual Demonstrations and Verbal Instructions in Directing Learners' Search During Skill Acquisition

In the present study, the efficacy of visual demonstrations and verbal instructions as instructional constraints on the acquisition of movement coordination was investigated. Fifteen participants performed an aiming task on 100 acquisition and 20 retention trials, under 1 of 3 conditions: a modeling group (MG), a verbally directed group (VDG), and a control group (CG). The MG observed a model intermittently throughout acquisition, whereas the VDG was verbally instructed to use the model's movement pattern. Participants in the CG received neither form of instruction. Kinematic analysis revealed that compared with verbal instructions or no instructions, visual demonstrations significantly improved participants' approximation of the model's coordination pattern. No differences were found in movement outcomes. Coordination data supported the visual perception perspective on observational learning, whereas outcome data suggested that the modeling effect is mainly a function of task constraints, that is, the novelty of a movement pattern.     

In search of average growth: Describing within-year oral reading fluency growth across Grades 1–8

Measures of oral reading fluency (ORF) are perhaps the most often used assessment to monitor student progress as part of a response to intervention (RTI) model. Rates of growth in research and aim lines in practice are used to characterize student growth; in either case, growth is generally defined as linear, increasing at a constant rate. Recent research suggests ORF growth follows a nonlinear trajectory, but limitations related to the datasets used in such studies, composed of only three testing occasions, curtails their ability to examine the true functional form of ORF growth. The purpose of this study was to model within-year ORF growth using up to eight testing occasions for 1448 students in Grades 1 to 8 to assess (a) the average growth trajectory for within-year ORF growth, (b) whether students vary significantly in within-year ORF growth, and (c) the extent to which findings are consistent across grades. Results demonstrated that for Grades 1 to 7, a quadratic growth model fit better than either linear or cubic growth models, and for Grade 8, there was no substantial, stable growth. Findings suggest that the expectation for linear growth currently used in practice may be unrealistic.