Investigating the roots of the favourite–longshot bias: an analysis of decision making by supply‐ and demand‐side agents in parallel betting markets

This paper offers new insights into the behavioural origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias — an established feature of betting markets, whereby longshots win less often than the subjective probabilities imply and favourites more often. A number of alternative explanations has been offered for this phenomenon but the main debate focuses on whether it is caused by the behaviour of those supplying betting markets (bookmakers) or of the demand‐side agents in these markets (bettors) . This study analyses a new data source which offers detailed information for a large sample of recent UK horseraces on decision‐making behaviour within the parimutuel and the parallel bookmaker‐based betting markets. The results offer strong evidence for the existence of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias in bookmaker‐based markets, with a corresponding absence of such an effect in the parimutuel case. These results offer support for the view that the origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias lie principally in the decisions of bookmakers rather than in the decisions of bettors. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trait affect and job search outcomes

The present study examines the role of trait affect in job search. One hundred and twenty-three university students completed measures of positive and negative affectivity, conscientiousness, job search self-efficacy, job search clarity, and job search intensity during their last year of school while on the job market. At the end of the school year, participants completed the measure of job search intensity again, and indicated the number of interviews and offers they had received and whether they had accepted a full-time job. As hypothesized, positive affectivity predicted job search clarity over and above conscientiousness and job search self-efficacy. Job search clarity mediated relationships between positive affectivity and job search intensity and between job search self-efficacy and job search intensity. Negative affectivity, however, did not predict job search clarity. Job search clarity predicted job search intensity, which led to interviews, offers, and employment. The results suggest that job seekers high in positive affectivity find a job because they achieve job search clarity and, in turn, look for a job intensely.     

Choice, time allocation, and response rate during stimulus generalization

Six pigeons were trained to discriminate between two noise intensities using a procedure that assessed choice, time allocation, and response rate simultaneously and independently. Responses on the left or right key (R1 or R2) were respectively correct in the presence of two different intensities, S1 and S2. After a correct response, reinforcement became available for pecks on the center key. Reinforcement density for R1¦S1 relative to R2¦S2 was varied across experimental conditions. Generalization tests followed extensive training at each condition. As a function of stimulus intensity, proportions of initial choices of R2, of time spent in R2-initiated components, and of center-key responses emitted in R2-initiated components all yielded sigmoidal gradients of similar slope, which shifted slightly in location when relative reinforcement density changed. Changeovers were maximal where initial choice proportions approximated 0.5. Gradients relating the absolute number of center-key responses to stimulus intensity were also roughly sigmoidal, but were more sensitive to changes in reinforcement density. Gradients of momentary response rate also depended on reinforcement density. During training, large but transitory shifts in choice responding occurred when reinforcement density changed, while differences in momentary response rate developed slowly, suggesting separate control of choice and response rate by the contingencies of reinforcement.     

论述理解中逻辑有效与逻辑无效条件推理的研究

句法理论和心理模型理论是解释论述理解中逻辑有效 (如MP)与逻辑无效 (如AC)条件推理机制的两种不同观点。本研究通过两项实验旨在对这两种理论加以检测。实验要求被试阅读遵循MP或AC形式的故事后对故事结论的正确性做出判断。结果表明 ,在论述理解中 ,条件前提的语义联系强度影响MP推理 ;深思熟虑对MP和AC推理均产生影响。研究结果支持心理模型理论。     

Facial attractiveness impressions precede trustworthiness inferences: lower detection thresholds and faster decision latencies

Prior research has found a relationship between perceived facial attractiveness and perceived personal trustworthiness. We examined the time course of attractiveness relative to trustworthiness evaluation of emotional and neutral faces. This served to explore whether attractiveness might be used as an easily accessible cue and a quick shortcut for judging trustworthiness. Detection thresholds and judgment latencies as a function of expressive intensity were measured. Significant correlations between attractiveness and trustworthiness consistently held for six emotional expressions at four intensities, and neutral faces. Importantly, perceived attractiveness preceded perceived trustworthiness, with lower detection thresholds and shorter decision latencies. This reveals a time course advantage for attractiveness, and suggests that earlier attractiveness impressions could bias trustworthiness inferences. A heuristic cognitive mechanism is hypothesised to ease processing demands by relying on simple and observable clues (attractiveness) as a substitute for more complex and not easily accessible information (trustworthiness).     

Negative affect varying in motivational intensity influences scope of memory

Emotions influence cognitive processes involved in memory. While some research has suggested that cognitive scope is determined by affective valence, recent models of emotion–cognition interactions suggest that motivational intensity, rather than valence, influences these processes. The present research was designed to clarify how negative affects differing in motivational intensity impact memory for centrally or peripherally presented information. Experiments 1 & 2 found that, relative to a neutral condition, high intensity negative affect (anger) enhances memory for centrally presented information. Experiment 3 replicated this effect using another high intensity negative affect (threat). Experiment 4 extended this by finding that, relative to a neutral condition, low intensity negative affect (sadness) enhanced memory for peripherally presented information. Finally, in Experiment 5, the effects of sadness and threat on scope of memory were directly compared, finding that threat narrowed scope of memory, while sadness broadened scope of memory. Together, these results provide additional support for the motivational dimensional model of cognitive scope, in that high intensity emotions narrow cognitive scope, while low intensity emotions broaden cognitive scope.     

The impact of E-diaries and accelerometers on young adults' perceived and objectively assessed physical activity

ObjectiveE-diaries and accelerometers promise more objective, real-time measurements of health behavior. However, social-psychological theory suggests that using electronic behavioral monitoring may influence rather than just record physical activity (PA), especially when a device is novel.DesignParticipants (n = 146) were randomly assigned to either an accelerometer-only, e-diary-only, accelerometer + e-diary, or a no-technology control group for one week to assess how these technologies influenced PA, both perceived and actual, in young adults.MethodParticipants reported their PA, overall and number of discrete exercise sessions (DES) at baseline and follow-up; accelerometers provided daily step counts and e-diaries captured daily reports of PA for the active week of the study.ResultsAverage daily steps in the accelerometer-only and accelerometer + e-diary groups did not differ nor did daily reports of PA via e-diary compared to accelerometer + e-diary group, showing that neither technology affected actual PA. ANCOVAS tested group differences in perceived PA; The accelerometer-only group had increased perceived overall PA but not DES compared to no-technology control.ConclusionsAccelerometers may increase perceived overall PA, but the tested technologies did not increase DES or actual PA, suggesting that they may be viable unbiased measures of PA.     

The quiet eye supports error recovery in golf putting

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to further examine the relationship between the Quiet eye (QE, Vickers, 1996) and performance. We aimed to scrutinise the relationship between QE and shot outcome and replicate the robust relationship between QE and expertise. Based on recent findings (Cooke et al., 2015) showing that motor planning is dependent upon the outcome of a previous attempt, we wanted to examine the influence of prior performance on the functionality of the QE. Design: We performed a 2 (expertise) x 2 (outcome) mixed design study. Participants performed golf putts until they had achieved 5 successful (hits) and 5 unsuccessful (misses) attempts.Methods18 experienced and 21 novice golfers participated in the study. Putts were taken from ten feet while wearing a mobile eye tracker.ResultsExperienced golfers had consistently longer QE durations than novices but there was no difference in QE between randomly chosen hits and misses. However, QE durations were significantly longer on hits directly following a miss, but significantly shorter on misses following a miss.ConclusionsThis is the first study to have examined QE duration as a consequence of prior performance. Our findings highlight the important role of QE in recovering from an error and improving performance. The findings add further support for the response programming function of the QE, as additional ‘programming’ was needed to recover from an error. Findings also highlight the potential for a link between QE and the allocation of attentional resources to the task (effort).     

移情在道德强度对企业道德决策影响中的作用

摘 要 本研究将一种重要的道德情绪--移情引入问题权变模型中,以探讨移情因素在道德强度对企业道德决策影响中的作用。本研究基于情景研究法,随机选取256名MBA学生为被试,要求被试基于所提供情景中假想参与者的行为,回答随后测量道德决策(道德识别、道德判断和道德意图)、移情反应、主观道德强度及移情特质的问题。结果发现,1）移情反应在道德强度对企业道德决策的影响中具有中介作用;2）移情关怀特质会通过影响主观道德强度和移情反应而作用于企业道德决策;3)结果大小、社会舆论和效应可能性对道德判断和道德意图的影响机制各有特点。     

Intra-group aggression among prisoners: bullying intensity and exploration of victim-perpetrator mutuality

A new multiple indicator method of assessing bullying behaviour is employed (Direct and Indirect Prisoner behaviour Checklist - Scaled version [DIPC-SCALED]) with 605 adult prisoners (487 men and 118 women). The study explores if the DIPC-SCALED is a reliable method comprising of identifiable aggression factors; if prisoners can be classified into groups based on behavioural frequency; and if there is evidence for mutual victim/perpetrator groups. The DIPC-SCALED proved reliable, comprising of a number of aggression factors. Prisoners could be classified into groups based on behavioural frequency with one-fifth classified into an "intense" perpetrator and/or victim group. Evidence for mutual perpetrator/victims was found. Results are discussed with regards to the method used and the value in accounting for behavioural frequency in group classification.