Inference to the Best Explanation

The common role of research programs in science and religion is now widely accepted. The next step in the methodology debate is to specify more concretely the shared standards for adequate explanations. The article presents a detailed account of the method of inference to the best explanation and gives examples of how the method can structure the philosophical and theological interaction with science. The resulting approach dispenses with deductive and inductive proofs of religious propositions and limits itself to initially plausible hypotheses that are to be assessed according to their explanatory power. Only when a domain of data and a particular explanatory task have been specified can any serious claim be made that religious theories are equal or superior to their naturalistic alternatives.     

基于默会知识的循证医学耗散结构观

阐述了循证医学的理论核心——最佳证据实质是一种默会知识,并指出应当把最佳证据视为一种默会知识,循证医学就会形成一种耗散结构。提出利用耗散结构理论显化默会知识寻找最佳证据的动力学规律和方法论。     

Can the skepticism debate be resolved?

External world skeptics are typically opposed to admitting as evidence anything that goes beyond the purely phenomenal, and equally typically, they disown the use of rules of inference that might enable one to move from premises about the phenomenal alone to a conclusion about the external world. This seems to bar any a posteriori resolution of the skepticism debate. This paper argues that the situation is not quite so hopeless, and that an a posteriori resolution of the debate becomes possible once it is recognized that the skeptic holds overly defensive and ill-motivated positions vis-à-vis both evidence and inference, and that more reasonable ones are available. In stating these more reasonable positions, as well as in showing how they make possible an a posteriori resolution of the skepticism debate, the paper draws on the machinery of Bayesian epistemology.     

Coherence measures and inference to the best explanation

This paper considers an application of work on probabilistic measures of coherence to inference to the best explanation (IBE). Rather than considering information reported from different sources, as is usually the case when discussing coherence measures, the approach adopted here is to use a coherence measure to rank competing explanations in terms of their coherence with a piece of evidence. By adopting such an approach IBE can be made more precise and so a major objection to this mode of reasoning can be addressed. Advantages of the coherence-based approach are pointed out by comparing it with several other ways to characterize ‘best explanation’ and showing that it takes into account their insights while overcoming some of their problems. The consequences of adopting this approach for IBE are discussed in the context of recent discussions about the relationship between IBE and Bayesianism.     

Needs met through computer game play among adolescents

Despite much research on video/computer game play, especially the relationship between such play and aggression, little attention has been directed at needs met through play. The aim of the present study was to extend Selnow’s (1984) needs’ scale, and to identify individual differences in needs among adolescents. Focus groups were conducted, followed by a content analysis, and items corresponding to emerging themes were added to reasons identified in previous research for use in a quantitative survey. Four factors emerged from a factor analysis of the results; ‘companionship’, ‘prefer to friends’, ‘fun challenge’, and ‘stress relief’, and these, with the exception of ‘companionship’, were found to be significant predictors of play.     

Looking to happy tomorrows with friends: Best and close friendships as they predict happiness

Friendships are an important source of happiness. The present study (n = 280) investigated the role of friendship quality and conflict in happiness and examined the feature of friendship that best predicted happiness. Information was gathered about the quality and conflict of the best, first and second close friendships of the individual. Results revealed that best friendship quality was the only significant predictor of happiness; however, individuals were happier when they experienced high quality first close friendships in conjunction with a high quality best friendship. Results also revealed that first close friendship quality buffered the negative impact of first close friendship conflict. The companionship feature of the best and first close friendship appeared as the strongest predictor of happiness. Findings were discussed in light of the literature and suggestions for future research were made.     

Differences in Friendship Networks and Experiences of Cyberbullying Among Korean and Australian Adolescents

ABSTRACT

Cyberbullying is one of the negative consequences of online social interaction. The digital environment enables adolescents to engage in online social interaction beyond the traditional physical boundaries of families, neighborhoods, and schools. The authors examined connections to friendship networks in both online and offline settings are related to their experiences as victims, perpetrators, and bystanders of cyberbullying. A comparative face-to-face survey of adolescents (12–15-year-olds) was conducted in Korea (n = 520) and Australia (n = 401). The results reveal that online networks are partially related to cyberbullying in both countries, showing the size of social network sites was significantly correlated with experience cyberbullying among adolescents in both countries. However there were cultural differences in the impact of friendship networks on cyberbullying. The size of the online and offline networks has a stronger impact on the cyberbullying experiences in Korea than it does in Australia. In particular, the number of friends in cliques was positively related to both bullying and victimization in Korea.     

Conflict Resolution in Chinese Adolescents' Friendship: Links with Regulatory Focus and Friendship Satisfaction

It is generally acknowledged that people adopt different resolution strategies when facing conflicts with others. However, the mechanisms of conflict resolution are still unclear and under researched, in particular within the context of Chinese adolescents' same-sex friendship relations. Thus, the present study investigated the mediator role of conflict resolution strategies in the relationship between regulatory foci and friendship satisfaction for the first time. 653 Chinese adolescents completed the regulatory foci, conflict resolution style, and friendship satisfaction measures. The results of the structure equation modeling showed that while promotion focus was positively associated with problem-solving and compliance, prevention focus was positively associated with withdrawal and conflict engagement. In addition, problem-solving mediated the relationship between promotion focus and friendship satisfaction, and conflict engagement mediated the relationship between prevention focus and friendship satisfaction. These findings contribute to understanding Chinese adolescents' use of conflict resolution strategies as well as the relationship between regulatory foci and behavioral strategies in negative situations.     

Do People Order Cues by Retrieval Fluency when Making Probabilistic Inferences?

In multiple‐cue probabilistic inferences, people infer alternatives' unknown values on decision criteria, using alternatives' attributes as cues. Some inferential strategies, like take‐the‐best, assume that people consider relevant cues sequentially in order of decreasing validity. This assumption has been deemed cognitively implausible by some, who suggest memory retrieval principles to guide cue order. We test whether memory‐based inferences are better described by a model considering cues in order of validity or in order of memory retrieval. In an experiment, we manipulated the frequency with which cues appeared in a learning phase, increasing retrieval fluency of cue values related to the more frequently appearing cue. In a subsequent decision phase, participants made a series of two‐alternative decisions based on the learned cue values. We compared two sequential sampling models, which differed in whether cues are sampled in order of subjective cue validity or in order of retrieval fluency. To model retrieval order of cues in the fluency sampling model, we used the declarative memory theory embedded in the ACT‐R cognitive architecture. Most participants' decisions were best described by the model sampling cues in order of memory retrieval. Only a minority of participants were classified as sampling cues by validity. Our result suggests that retrieval fluency is the primary driver of cue order in inferences from memory, irrespective of the cues' validities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.