How do investors make predictions? Insights from analogical reasoning research

Previous work on investor decision making has focused almost exclusively on information specific to the company being judged. Consequently, every decision is viewed as a novel event, disconnected from the investor's existing knowledge. In this study, the analogical reasoning literature provides the theoretical support for arguing that investors frequently utilize existing knowledge as a basis for generating predictions about a company's future. The specific proposal is that investors transfer their existing knowledge via two different forms of analogical reasoning. The first, relational reasoning, is based primarily on structural correspondence between a novel company and an existing schema. The second, literal similarity reasoning, is based primarily on surface correspondence of a novel company and a previously encountered company. Our theoretical framework is tested in a study in which experienced investors predict the outcome of a novel company's strategy after reading about the experiences of other companies who implemented a similar strategy. The results are consistent with the occurrence of both relational and literal similarity reasoning, with relational reasoning emerging as the dominant approach to generating investors' predictions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“Bridging the Gap”: A reflexive thematic analysis of the experiences of therapy trainees transitioning from psychodynamic counselling to cognitive behavioural therapy

There is limited empirical research and insight into the experiences of therapy trainees who are being taught more than one psychotherapeutic approach during their training. Further understanding is warranted to ensure that a dual modality approach to training (that is, where therapists are trained in two paradigmatically distinct modalities) is experienced as worthwhile and acceptable to trainees and to better understand any challenges faced when transitioning between approaches. The aim of this study was to investigate trainees' experiences of transitioning from psychodynamic counselling to cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) on a two-year master's degree that offers a dual modality approach to training. Data were collected from a sample of 8 trainees using an online semistructured questionnaire. These data were analysed using Braun and Clarke's (2020) reflexive thematic analysis. Four main themes were identified: (1) perceived competence; (2) preparedness; (3) professional advantages; and (4) external challenges. The findings suggested considerable individual variation in the ease with which participants navigated the transition between therapeutic modalities. Those who found the transition easier used the structure of CBT to provide a framework and point of difference that allowed them to temporarily suspend their psychodynamic learning in order to embrace a new therapeutic approach. Others experienced the move to CBT as posing a threat to their developing identities as counsellors. Recommendations are made on how to prepare trainees for the transition including exploring the psychological impact of transitions, increasing opportunities for reflective practice and facilitating exploration of what it means to be a therapist trained in two distinct therapeutic modalities.     

Early Change Trajectories in Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Binge-Eating Disorder

Rapid response is considered the most well-established outcome predictor across treatments of binge-eating disorder (BED), including cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). This study sought to identify latent trajectories of early change in CBT and compare them to common rapid response classifications. In a multicenter randomized trial, 86 adults with BED (DSM-IV) or subsyndromal BED provided weekly self-reports of binge eating over the first 4 weeks of CBT, which were analyzed to predict binge eating, depression, and body mass index at posttreatment, 6-, and 18-month follow-up. Using latent growth mixture modeling, three patterns of early change—including moderate and low decreasing—as well as low stable binge eating were identified, which significantly predicted binge-eating remission at 6-month follow-up. Other classifications of rapid response based on Receiver Operating Characteristics curve analyses or on the literature (≥ 10% reduction in binge eating at week 1, ≥ 70% reduction in binge eating at week 4) only predicted posttreatment remission or overall depression, respectively. Latent change trajectories, but not other rapid response classifications, predicted binge-eating frequency over time. A fine-grained analysis of change over the first 4 weeks of CBT for BED revealed different trajectories of early change in binge eating that led to an improved prediction of binge-eating outcome, compared to that of common rapid response classifications. Thorough monitoring of early change trajectories during treatment may have clinical utility.     

(Emotion-centered) problem-solving therapy: An update

Problem-solving therapy (PST) is a psychosocial intervention, typically considered to be a member of the cognitive and behaviour therapies family, and is based on a biopsychosocial, diathesis-stress model of psychopathology. The overarching goal of this approach is to promote the successful adoption of adaptive problem-solving attitudes and the effective implementation of certain behaviours as a means of coping with life stressors in order to attenuate the negative effects of such events on physical and mental well-being. Over the past several decades, in addition to accumulating strong support for its efficacy as a clinical intervention, similar to many other forms of psychotherapy, PST has undergone various evolutionary changes. Developed primarily as a more cognitive-based approach, due to the large body of literature in the field of affective neuroscience that underscores the importance of the impact of affect on problem solving, PST has evolved into emotion-centered problem-solving therapy (EC-PST). This article provides for a brief excursion into the historical roots of PST and why it has evolved into EC-PST, as well as providing support for its characterisation as a transdiagnostic approach. In addition, several meta-analyses that underscore its efficacy are described, as well as the most recent clinical guidelines that comprise EC-PST.     

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.