Actuarial Criminology: Meeting Current Challenges in Southern Africa

South African prisons were overcrowded by more than sixty-three percent in 2005. Overcrowding and poor prison conditions have enormous implications for rehabilitation efforts made by the South African Department of Correctional Services. The South African White Paper on Corrections (2005) commits the Department of Correctional Services to provide needs-based rehabilitation processes and a framework of continuous evaluation to measure the impact and success of such processes. It also acknowledges that monitoring the rates of recidivism is a critical indicator of the success, the effectiveness of needs-based rehabilitation, and improved service. A reliable system for monitoring recidivism will have to be developed and put in place. In this respect, actuarial criminology can make a vital contribution. This article poses a strategic alternative to the correctional industry in Southern Africa that can be used for the realization of correctional ideals, especially where retribution and overcrowding are still the main features of correctional institutions.     

Predictor Variables Associated with Positive Fast Track Outcomes at the End of Third Grade

Progress has been made in understanding the outcome effects of preventive interventions and treatments designed to reduce children's conduct problems. However, limited research has explored the factors that may affect the degree to which an intervention is likely to benefit particular individuals. This study examines selected child, family, and community baseline characteristics that may predict proximal outcomes from the Fast Track intervention. The primary goal of this study was to examine predictors of outcomes after 3 years of intervention participation, at the end of 3rd grade. Three types of proximal outcomes were examined: parent-rated aggression, teacher-rated oppositional–aggressive behavior, and special education involvement. The relation between 11 risk factors and these 3 outcomes was examined, with separate regression analyses for the intervention and control groups. Moderate evidence of prediction of outcome effects was found, although none of the baseline variables were found to predict all 3 outcomes, and different patterns of prediction emerged for home versus school outcomes.     

风险偏好预测中的性别差异和框架效应

11 8名大学生被试在得益和损失两种任务框架下对自己、其他男性和女性的风险偏好进行了预测。结果发现 ,被试在损失框架下对各类对象风险偏好的预测均高于得益框架 ,且都高估了男性的风险偏好 ,低估了女性的风险偏好。在损失框架下 ,女性被试对各类对象的风险偏好预测高于男性的预测。研究认为 ,性别原型知识、任务框架和即时情绪共同影响被试的风险偏好预测。     

Towards a new approach to predict business performance using machine learning

Financial ratio plays a crucial role in business performance prediction, but the ability of the decision maker to use this method in adjusting management strategy has been extensively ignored. In this paper we attempt to build a fuzzy chance constrained least squares twin support vector machine (FCC-LSTSVM) to predict the business performance through the financial ratios. Specifically, machine learning techniques are utilized to build the models and 796 listed companies in China are selected as the data set. We find that different efficiencies are performed for different models with the same industry and different effectiveness are shown for different predicting time periods with the same method. In addition, the predicting achievements of business performance depend on the types of industries. This paper has extent significance both in theoretical development and managerial practices.     

Conditions for factor (in)determinacy in factor analysis

The subject of factor indeterminacy has a vast history in factor analysis (Guttman, 1955; Lederman, 1938; Wilson, 1928). It has lead to strong differences in opinion (Steiger, 1979). The current paper gives necessary and sufficient conditions for observability of factors in terms of the parameter matrices and a finite number of variables. Five conditions are given which rigorously define indeterminacy. It is shown that (un)observable factors are (in)determinate. Specifically, the indeterminacy proof by Guttman is extended to Heywood cases. The results are illustrated by two examples and implications for indeterminacy are discussed.     

Traffic Offences: Planned or Habitual? Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour and habit strength to explain frequency and magnitude of speeding and driving under the influence of alcohol

This study addresses the socio‐cognitive determinants of traffic offences, in particular of speeding and drinking and driving. It has two aims: (1) to test the hypothesis of a direct effect of habits on offences (i.e., independent of intentions) by employing a specific measure of habits (i.e., the SRIH) and (2) to analyse the offences by taking account of three distinct parameters: Frequency, usual magnitude (i.e., the most frequent deviation from the law) and maximal magnitude (i.e., the greatest deviation occasionally adopted) in order to represent more accurately the variability of the offending behaviours. A total of 642 drivers replied to a questionnaire. The results corroborate the idea that intention and habit are distinct and direct determinants of offences. The use of the SRIH dismisses the criticisms made with regard to the measure of past behaviour. The distinction between the three behavioural parameters proves to be relevant, as their determinants are not exactly similar. Finally, attitude and subjective norm had direct effects on the maximal magnitude and/or on the frequency of the offence. The discussion concerns the contribution of this study to the analysis of offences as well as its limitations and addresses the theoretical plausibility of the direct effects of attitude and the subjective norm.     

Individual social capital and the implementation of entrepreneurial intentions: The case of Russia

The current research hypothesized that individual social capital facilitates the implementation of one's intention to start a business. The research samples were drawn from a sample of 2061 adult respondents: a sub‐sample of 269 adults who stated their intention to start their own business during the next two years (‘intenders’) and a matching sub‐sample of 270 who said they did not intend to do so (‘non‐intenders’). The study shows that the ‘intenders’ possessed greater individual social capital. These resources had a positive indirect impact (through increased perceived behavioural control and attitude) on their intention to start their own business.     

Psychosocial mediators of a theory-based resistance training maintenance intervention for prediabetic adults

Objective: Examine psychosocial mediators of the effects of high vs. low-dose resistance training (RT) maintenance interventions among older (ages 50–69), overweight and pre-diabetic adults.

Design: Participants (N = 123) completed a three-month supervised RT initiation phase and were subsequently randomised (time 1) to high or low-dose six-month unsupervised RT maintenance interventions (time 2), followed by a six-month no-contact phase (time 3).

Main Outcome Measures: Online measures of putative mediators and RT behaviour.

Results: RT intervention condition (high vs. low dose) had significant effects on change from time 1 to time 2 in behavioural expectation, self-regulation and perceived satisfaction (f² = .04–.08), but not outcome expectancies, RT strategies or behavioural intentions (f² ≤ .02). Change in each of the putative mediators, except for outcome expectancies (f² ≤ .02), had significant effects on RT behaviour at times 2 (f² = .12–.27) and 3 (f² = .23–.40). In a multiple mediation model, behavioural expectation (f² = .11) and self-regulation (f² = .06) mediated the effects of RT intervention condition on time 2 RT behaviour, whereas perceived satisfaction did not (f² = .01). Self-regulation was a significant mediator of intervention effects on time 3 RT behaviour (f² = .11), but behavioural expectation and perceived satisfaction were not (f² = .04).

Conclusions: Findings suggest that behavioural expectation and self-regulation are appropriate targets for RT maintenance interventions among at-risk older adults.