Desire for control and optimistic time predictions

Halkjelsvik, T., Rognaldsen, M. & Teigen, K. H. (2012). Desire for control and optimistic time predictions. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 53, 499–505. Few studies have investigated individual differences in time predictions. We report two experiments that show an interaction between the personality trait Desirability of Control and reward conditions on predictions of performance time. When motivated to perform a task quickly, participants with a strong desire for control produced more optimistic predictions than those with a weaker desire for control. This effect could also be observed for a completely uncontrollable task. The results are discussed in relation to the finding that power produces more optimistic predictions, and extend this work by ruling out some previously suggested explanations.     

The illusion of courage in self‐predictions: Mispredicting one's own behavior in embarrassing situations

People exhibit an “illusion of courage” when predicting their own behavior in embarrassing situations. In three experiments, participants overestimated their own willingness to engage in embarrassing public performances in exchange for money when those performances were psychologically distant: Hypothetical or in the relatively distant future. This illusion of courage occurs partly because of cold/hot empathy gaps. That is, people in a relatively “cold” unemotional state underestimate the influence on their own preferences and behaviors of being in a relative “hot” emotional state such as social anxiety evoked by an embarrassing situation. Consistent with this cold/hot empathy gap explanation, putting people “in touch” with negative emotional states by arousing fear (Experiments 1 and 2) and anger (Experiment 2) decreased people's willingness to engage in psychologically distant embarrassing public performances. Conversely, putting people “out of touch” with social anxiety through aerobic exercise, which reduces state anxiety and increases confidence, increased people's willingness to engage in psychologically distance embarrassing public performances (Experiment 3). Implications for self‐predictions, self‐evaluation, and affective forecasting are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Overpredicting and Underprofiting in Pricing Decisions

This research examines sellers' price‐setting behavior and discovers a naturally occurring mismatch between sellers and buyers: Sellers who make a price decision often consider alternative prices and engage in the joint evaluation mode, whereas buyers who make a purchase decision see only the finally set price and are in the single evaluation mode. This mismatch in evaluation modes leads sellers to overpredict buyers' price sensitivity and underprice their products. However, these effects apply only to products unfamiliar to buyers and without salient reference prices and can be alleviated if sellers are encouraged to mimic single evaluation when making pricing decisions. These propositions are empirically tested and verified. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An expert consensus on the most effective components of cognitive behavioural therapy for adults with depression: a modified Delphi study

ABSTRACT

Designing new approaches to delivering cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) requires an understanding of the key components. This study aimed to establish an expert consensus on the effective components of CBT for depressed adults. An international panel of 120 CBT experts was invited to participate in a modified Delphi study. Thirty-two experts participated in round 1; 21 also provided data in round 2. In round 1, experts rated the effectiveness of 35 content and process components. A priori rules identified components carried forward to round 2, in which experts re-rated items and final consensus items were identified. Consensus was achieved for nine content components (ensuring understanding; developing and maintaining a good therapeutic alliance; explaining the rationale for CBT; eliciting feedback; identifying and challenging avoidant behaviour; activity monitoring; undertaking an initial assessment; relapse prevention methods; homework assignments); and three process components (ensuring therapist competence; scheduling sessions flexibly; scheduling sessions for 45–60 mins). Five of the twelve components identified were generic therapeutic competences rather than specific CBT items. There was less agreement about the effectiveness of cognitive components of CBT. This is an important first step in the development of novel approaches to delivering CBT that may increase access to treatment for patients.     

Lexical prediction in the aging brain: The effects of predictiveness and congruency on the N400 ERP component

Although the N400 ERP component has been extensively studied in younger adults, the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. In older adults, N400 ERP studies have shown less efficient use of context compared to younger adults. Here, we asked whether the mechanisms underlying the N400 effect are the same in terms of predictiveness and congruency in younger and older adults. We used a simple picture-word matching task in which we crossed predictiveness and congruency. Our results indicate a three-way interaction between predictiveness, congruency, and age, in that, younger adults showed an N400 effect only in strongly constrained conditions; whereas, older adults showed an effect in both strongly- and weakly constrained conditions. This interaction was not modulated by language experience or cognitive decline. Our results support either two separate mechanisms (lexical access and integration) that run in parallel and are modulated by age or a common prediction error mechanism that changes with age.     

An improved method for counting stressful life events (SLEs) when predicting mental health and wellness

Objective: Checklists for registering stressful life events (SLEs) generally correlate negatively, but weakly, with mental health outcome measures. Thus, the present study examined various methodological approaches for improving these relationships.

Design: A total of 1679 participants (women?=?943, men?=?736, M age-39.8) were randomly drawn from the general Norwegian population (response rate 34%). This prospective cohort study included two follow-ups at 10 (n?=?1181) and 23 months (n?=?942).

Main outcome measures: Satisfaction with life and absence of psychological distress (i.e. anxiety and depression) represented a joint measure for indexing ‘mental wellness’ (MW).

Results: A simple count of SLEs weakly predicted MW, as expected, whereas the addition of a moderator (i.e. manageability of the event) substantially improved predictive power. Four additional moderators were examined: duration, impact, help-seeking and time since onset, but these were non-significant after inserting manageability into the model. This SLE counting method also retained its predictive power after including multiple criterion-related variables that substantially adjusted the longitudinal statistical model.

Conclusion: This new SLE counting method exhibited a considerable improvement to predicting mental health and well-being. It is well suited for use in epidemiological research requiring a short SLE checklist format with high predictive power.     

Is knowledge of family history related to psychosocial functioning? Comparison of adolescents living in institutional care and adolescents living with their biological families

We tested adolescents growing up in institutional care and adolescents living with their birth families using the ‘Do you know?’ scale and other measures of psychosocial functioning. We found that children living in group homes knew significantly less of their family history, exhibited more behavioural problems and had a more external locus of control. Moreover, the correlations between self-esteem and knowledge of family history were significantly different between the groups. This may suggest that the contribution of the knowledge of family history to self-esteem is different depending on the quality of family history. We also found a significant correlation between locus of control and behavioural problems for the children in institutional care, but not children living with their birth families, which may indicate that their behavioural problems may partially stem from the sense of lack of control over their lives.