The Influence of Emotional Prediction on the Other-race Effect in Face Recognition

异族效应(other-race effect) 是一种在面孔加工研究领域中被研究者广为熟之的一种社会性知觉现象。具体而言,就是指个体识别异族面孔的成绩显著低于本族面孔。大量的研究证据表明个体在知觉他人的情绪面孔时,会表现出明显的异族面孔效应。但就目前而言,研究者还不了解自上而下的情绪预期(top-down emotional prediction) 是如何影响面孔识别过程中的异族效应。本研究采用线索-目标范式（cue-target）对该问题进行了考察,实验通过操纵“一致试次”的比率,来区分预期 (75% 的“一致”实验试次) 与非预期实验条件 (50% 的“一致”实验试次)。本实验招募28名健康的大学生被试(12名女性,16名男性)参加正式实验,这些被试无精神疾病、情绪障碍、视力缺陷等疾病。实验后,每一名被试都获得一定的实验报酬。实验结果发现,在正性和负性情绪不预期条件下,个体表现出了对异族面孔的识别劣势,即个体识别异族面孔表情的反应时更长。虽然在负性情绪预期条件下,个体仍然表现出了对异族面孔的识别劣势,但在正性情绪预期条件下,个体对异族面孔的这种识别劣势却消失。这些研究结果表明先前的正性面孔情绪预期有效地消除了异族效应。因此,可以认为自上而下的情绪预期可能是一种促进劣势知觉加工的认知管理策略。     

Breadth versus depth: Cumulative risk model and continuous measure prediction of poor language and reading outcomes at 12

This study examines whether, and how, multiple risks in early childhood are associated with an increased likelihood of a poor language or literacy outcome in early adolescence. Using data from 210 participants in the longitudinal Twins Early Developmental Study, we focus on the following risk factors at age 4: family risk, and poor language, speech, emergent literacy and nonverbal skills. The outcomes of interest at age 12 are language, reading fluency and reading comprehension. We contrast a ‘cumulative risk’ model, counting the presence or absence of each risk factor (breadth), with a model that also considers the severity of the early deficits (depth). A ‘cumulative risk index’ correlated modestly but significantly with outcome (r = 0.32–0.40). Odds ratios confirmed that having many risk factors (3–6) confers a higher probability of a poor outcome (OR 7.86–17.71) than having one or two (OR 3.65–7.28). Logistic regression models showed that predictive validity is not improved by including information about the severity of each deficit. Even with rich information on children's risk status at age 4, we can make only a moderately accurate prediction of the likelihood of a language or literacy disorder 8 years later (Area Under the Curve = 0.74–0.84; Positive Predictive Value = 0.33–0.55, Negative Predictive Value = 0.86–0.91). Taken together, and consistent with the idea of ‘cumulative risk’, these results suggest that the breadth of risk is a core predictor of outcome, and furthermore, that the severity of early deficits does not add significantly to this prediction.     

Constrained Choice: Children's and Adults’ Attribution of Choice to a Humanoid Robot

Young children, like adults, understand that human agents can flexibly choose different actions in different contexts, and they evaluate these agents based on such choices. However, little is known about children's tendencies to attribute the capacity to choose to robots, despite increased contact with robotic agents. In this paper, we compare 5- to 7-year-old children's and adults’ attributions of free choice to a robot and to a human child by using a series of tasks measuring agency attribution, action prediction, and choice attribution. In morally neutral scenarios, children ascribed similar levels of free choice to the robot and the human, while adults were more likely to ascribe free choice to the human. For morally relevant scenarios, however, both age groups considered the robot's actions to be more constrained than the human's actions. These findings demonstrate that children and adults hold a nuanced understanding of free choice that is sensitive to both the agent type and constraints within a given scenario.     

Value-based choice: An integrative,neuroscience-informed model of health goals

Objective: Traditional models of health behaviour focus on the roles of cognitive, personality and social-cognitive constructs (e.g. executive function, grit, self-efficacy), and give less attention to the process by which these constructs interact in the moment that a health-relevant choice is made. Health psychology needs a process-focused account of how various factors are integrated to produce the decisions that determine health behaviour.

Design: I present an integrative value-based choice model of health behaviour, which characterises the mechanism by which a variety of factors come together to determine behaviour. This model imports knowledge from research on behavioural economics and neuroscience about how choices are made to the study of health behaviour, and uses that knowledge to generate novel predictions about how to change health behaviour. I describe anomalies in value-based choice that can be exploited for health promotion, and review neuroimaging evidence about the involvement of midline dopamine structures in tracking and integrating value-related information during choice. I highlight how this knowledge can bring insights to health psychology using illustrative case of healthy eating.

Conclusion: Value-based choice is a viable model for health behaviour and opens new avenues for mechanism-focused intervention.     

Geopolitical Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence

Extending research by the authors on intelligence forecasting, the forecasting skill of 3622 geopolitical forecasts extracted from strategic intelligence reports was examined. The codable subset of forecasts (N = 2013) was expressed with verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) and translated to numeric probability equivalents. This subset showed very good calibration and discrimination, but also underconfidence. There was no support for the hypothesis that forecasting skill was good mainly because of the general ease of forecasting topics. First, forecasting skill was as good among authoritative key judgments as in the general set. Second, forecasts that were assigned high degrees of certainty, indicative of ease, (p ≤ 0.05 or p ≥ 0.95) did not discriminate as well as less certain forecasts (0.05 < p < 0.95), and these subsets did not differ in calibration. Sensitivity and benchmarking tests further revealed that if the 1609 uncodable forecasts were all assigned forecast probabilities of .5 (i.e., if all followed a “cautious ignorance” rule), skill characteristics would still show a large effect size improvement over a variety of guesswork strategies. The findings support a cautiously optimistic assessment of forecasting skill in strategic intelligence and indicate that such skill is not primarily attributable to the selection of easy forecasting topics. However, the large proportion of uncodable cases suggests that intelligence forecasts could be improved by avoiding imprecise language that affects not only the codability but also, in all likelihood, the interpretability and indicative value of forecasts for intelligence consumers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction during statistical learning, and implications for the implicit/explicit divide

Accounts of statistical learning, both implicit and explicit, often invoke predictive processes as central to learning, yet practically all experiments employ non-predictive measures during training. We argue that the common theoretical assumption of anticipation and prediction needs clearer, more direct evidence for it during learning. We offer a novel experimental context to explore prediction, and report results from a simple sequential learning task designed to promote predictive behaviors in participants as they responded to a short sequence of simple stimulus events. Predictive tendencies in participants were measured using their computer mouse, the trajectories of which served as a means of tapping into predictive behavior while participants were exposed to very short and simple sequences of events. A total of 143 participants were randomly assigned to stimulus sequences along a continuum of regularity. Analysis of computer-mouse trajectories revealed that (a) participants almost always anticipate events in some manner, (b) participants exhibit two stable patterns of behavior, either reacting to vs. predicting future events, (c) the extent to which participants predict relates to performance on a recall test, and (d) explicit reports of perceiving patterns in the brief sequence correlates with extent of prediction. We end with a discussion of implicit and explicit statistical learning and of the role prediction may play in both kinds of learning.     

Change and processes of change within interventions to promote adjustment to multiple sclerosis: Learning from patient experiences

This qualitative study was nested within a trial of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) and supportive listening for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). It aimed to enrich understanding of the changes made during therapy and to explore processes of change. In-depth interviews with 30 participants from the treatment trial were analysed inductively and five main themes were developed. The benefits that participants described experiencing as a result of the interventions were highly variable, idiosyncratic and often departed from outcomes measured within the trial. Tuning into and sharing one’s thoughts and feelings and learning specific strategies for living with MS appeared to be important processes for change, and participants identified the latter as particularly important for sustaining long-term benefits from therapy. Whether participants fully engaged with the interventions appeared to be related to their perceptions of being the right sort of candidate for the intervention, their expectations and motivations, the therapeutic relationship, adequate tailoring of the intervention, and practical issues. This study builds on previous research on factors and processes involved in adjustment to MS, the benefits of CBT for this population and highlights important issues to consider when developing psychosocial interventions for people with MS.     

Self-efficacy and social support as predictors of smoking after a quit attempt

Abstract

The current study examined self-efficacy and social support as predictors of maintenance after an attempt to stop smoking. As in previous studies, self-efficacy at the end of treatment was a significant predictor of reported smoking during the follow-up period. At 3 months after treatment the prediction from self-efficacy was weaker than a prediction from the level of post-treatment smoking. However at 10 months self-efficacy was the strongest predictive variable assessed in the study. In contrast, social support for the quit attempt was not a significant predictor of maintenance at any stage. The results provided qualified support for the contention that self-efficacy can often be a more powerful predictor than previous performance attainments, especially under conditions of greater situational change.     

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues, all other things equal. A simple heuristic predicted that the candidate who is rated more favorably on a larger number of issues would win the popular vote. This was correct for nine out of ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. We then used simple linear regression to relate the incumbent's relative issue ratings to the actual two‐party popular vote shares. The resulting model yielded out‐of‐sample forecasts that were competitive with those from the Iowa Electronic Markets and established quantitative models. The issue‐index model has implications for political decision makers, as it can help to track campaigns and to decide which issues to focus on. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Finger gnosia: a predictor of numerical abilities in children?

This paper aimed to test the specificity of predicting power of finger gnosia on later numerical abilities in school-age children and to contribute to the understanding of this effect. Forty-one children were tested in the beginning of Grade 1 on finger gnosia, left–right orientation (another sign of the Gerstmann “syndrome”), and global development. Fifteen months later, numerical and reading abilities were assessed. Analyses of the results indicated that, contrary to the general measures of cognitive development, performance in the finger gnosia test was a good predictor of numerical skills 1 year later but not of reading skills, which proves the specificity of that predictor. The same conclusion was also true for the left–right orientation. However, finger gnosia could equally predict performance in numerical tasks that do or do not rely heavily on finger representation or on magnitude representation. Results are discussed in terms of the localizationist and the functional hypotheses.