Is motion extrapolation employed in multiple object tracking? Tracking as a low-level, non-predictive function

In a series of five experiments, we investigated whether visual tracking mechanisms utilize prediction when recovering multiple reappearing objects. When all objects abruptly disappeared and reappeared mid-trajectory, it was found that (a) subjects tracked better when objects reappeared at their loci of disappearance than when they reappeared in their extrapolated trajectories, (b) disappearance episodes ranging from 150 to 900 ms had virtually no differential effect on performance, (c) tracking deteriorated monotonically as a function of displacement magnitude during disappearance, and (d) tracking did not depend on whether objects moved in predictable paths. Even objects that reappeared backward in their trajectories were tracked dramatically better than objects that reappeared in their extrapolated trajectories. When all objects disappeared and reappeared in ways that implicated the presence of an occluder (i.e., with occlusion and disocclusion cues along fixed contours), tracking again was not predictive, and performance deteriorated with increased displacement. When objects reappeared predictably in 75% of trials, they were still tracked better when they reappeared at their points of disappearance. Theoretical implications of a non-predictive multiple object tracking mechanism are discussed.     

An analysis of reinforcement sensitivity theory and the five-factor model

Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory (RST) and the Five-Factor Model (FFM) are two prominent personality accounts that have emerged from different backgrounds. Although the two accounts are applied to similar research topics, there is limited empirical work examining the correspondence between them. The current study explored the relationship between RST-based personality traits and the FFM domains and facets in an undergraduate sample (n = 668). Regression analyses indicated that Sensitivity to Punishment (SP) was positively associated with Neuroticism and Agreeableness, and negatively associated with Extraversion, Openness, and Conscientiousness. In contrast, Sensitivity to Reward (SR) was positively associated with Extraversion and Neuroticism, and negatively associated with Agreeableness and Conscientiousness. Exploratory analyses at the facet level specified the relationship between SP, SR, and each domain. A factor analysis was also conducted to explore the higher-order factor structure of RST and the FFM domains. Three factors emerged, which we labelled SP, Stability-Impulsivity, and Sensation Seeking. Taken together, these findings suggest that there is substantial overlap between these two accounts of personality. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

维度的结合与分离对归类不确定性预测的影响

探讨在归类不确定的情境下目标与预测特征两个维度的结合或分离对被试特征预测的影响。共包括 3个实验 :实验 1在Murphy和Ross的研究的基础上进一步提高非靶类型中目标及预测特征的基本概率 ,考察被试的特征预测是否会受非靶类型信息的影响。实验 2探讨非靶类型的目标与预测特征结合与否是否会影响被试预测特征时对非靶类型信息的使用。实验 3探讨提高靶类型中目标与预测特征结合的比例是否影响被试对特征的预测。结果表明 :当非靶类型中目标与关键特征处于分离的状态时 ,被试在进行特征预测时没有利用非靶类型的信息 ,符合单类说的假设 ;而当非靶类型中目标与关键特征结合时 ,被试在进行特征预测时则会利用非靶类型的信息 ,符合Bayesian规则 ;靶类型中的目标与关键特征结合的比例提高 ,被试对特征预测的概率也随之提高。据此 ,本研究将目标与预测特征结合比例这个变量加入Bayesian规则的计算公式 ,对该预测模型进行了修正     

Stability and prediction of parenting stress

The study focused on stability and prediction of parenting stress experiences over a 6‐year period. Mothers (N=93) who had received a clinical intervention for feeding or sleeping problems during infancy (Time 1; T 1) were followed‐up when the children were 5–10 years old (Time 2; T 2). An age‐ and sex‐of‐child matched normal group was used for comparison of stress levels at T 2. Parenting stress was measured by the Swedish Parenthood Stress Questionnaire, which consists of a general parenting stress scale and sub‐scales tapping different aspects of parenting stress experiences. T 1 predictors were clinical assessments of child problem load, maternal unresponsiveness, and family psychosocial problems. T 2 predictors were mother‐reported concurrent child problem load and psychosocial problems. The individual stability in stress experiences was moderate. Effect sizes indicated that mothers with early clinical contacts had reduced their stress to levels close to those in the normal sample. Parenting stress at T 2 could be predicted from early and from concurrent child and family problems. The results point to the relevance of early clinical assessments and to the importance of a sub‐area approach in parenting stress research, as there were differences between stress sub‐areas regarding both prediction and stability. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An evaluation and comparison of claims made in behavioural investigative advice reports compiled by the National Policing Improvements Agency in the United Kingdom

This study examined the content of a contemporary sample of behavioural investigative advice reports produced by the National Policing Improvements Agency (NPIA), formally known as the National Centre for Policing Excellence, and compared this sample with previous offender‐profiling samples reported by Alison, Smith, Eastman, and Rainbow in 2003. Forty‐seven reports written in 2005 were content analysed. The reports contained 805 claims, although 96% of the claims contained grounds for their claim, only 34% had any formal support or backing. In terms of confirmability, 70% of the claims were verifiable. However, only 43% were falsifiable, in that they could be objectively measured post‐conviction. Analysis also showed that there were differences when comparing the different types of claims made (i.e. behavioural, temporal) and the different types of reports compiled by the NPIA (i.e. behavioural assessment report, linking report, etc.) Comparisons show that there is a very large positive difference between the contemporary behavioural investigative advice sample and previous non‐NPIA expert advice in terms of the substantiveness of their arguments. Contemporary NPIA behavioural investigative advice has clearer boundaries around the claims made and presents material in a more coherent and evidence‐based format than previous expert advice. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

等级效标分数的概率神经网络预测方法研究

针对基于统计学的等级效标分数预测存在的问题,提出了运用概率神经网络进行等级效标分数预测的方法。在20种条件下进行了计算机模拟实验,包括测验分数为单变量和多变量,以及各种水平的白噪声干扰条件,结果表明在测验分数为多变量的情况下,或者在有白噪声干扰的条件下,运用概率神经网络方法可以比统计学方法更好地对等级效标分数进行预测。     

Use and interpretation of test scores from limited cognitive test batteries: How g + Gc can equal g

Single scores from limited and unbalanced test batteries of cognitive ability can be ambiguous to interpret theoretically. In this study, a limited verbally and knowledge‐loaded cognitive test battery, from applicants to the Swedish police academies (N = 1,344), was examined to provide foundations for the use and interpretation of test scores. Three measurement models were compared: one single factor model and two bifactor models, which decomposed the variance of the battery into orthogonal components. The models were evaluated by fit indices and omega coefficients, and then applied to the prediction of academic performance. The overall prediction of all models was similar, although specific abilities also were found to provide substantial predictive validity over and above general intelligence (g). The findings provide support for the use of single scores in applied settings (selection), but suggest that it may be more appropriate to interpret such scores as composites of substantive components, and not just as measures of g.