风险偏好预测中的性别差异和框架效应

11 8名大学生被试在得益和损失两种任务框架下对自己、其他男性和女性的风险偏好进行了预测。结果发现 ,被试在损失框架下对各类对象风险偏好的预测均高于得益框架 ,且都高估了男性的风险偏好 ,低估了女性的风险偏好。在损失框架下 ,女性被试对各类对象的风险偏好预测高于男性的预测。研究认为 ,性别原型知识、任务框架和即时情绪共同影响被试的风险偏好预测。     

The Natural Selection of Prediction Heuristics: Anchoring and Adjustment versus Representativeness

There are several heuristics which people use in making numerical predictions and these heuristics compete for the determination of prediction output. Some of them (e.g. representativeness) lead to excessively extreme predictions while others (e.g. anchoring and adjustment) lead to regressive (and even over-regressive) predictions. In this paper we study the competition between these two heuristics by varying the representation of predictor and outcome. The results indicate that factors which facilitate reliance on representativeness (e.g. compatibility between predictor and outcome) indeed lead to an increase in extremity, while factors that facilitate reliance on anchoring and adjustment (e.g. increased salience of a potential anchor) lead to a decrease in extremity.     

Lasso回归：从解释到预测

传统的最小二乘回归法关注于对当前数据集的准确估计, 容易导致模型的过拟合, 影响模型结论的可重复性。随着方法学领域的发展, 涌现出的新兴统计工具可以弥补传统方法的局限, 从过度关注回归系数值的解释转向提升研究结果的预测能力也愈加成为心理学领域重要的发展趋势。Lasso方法通过在模型估计中引入惩罚项的方式, 可以获得更高的预测准确度和模型概化能力, 同时也可以有效地处理过拟合和多重共线性问题, 有助于心理学理论的构建和完善。     

Resistance and outcome expectations in cognitive‐behavioural therapy for generalised anxiety disorder

Greater client resistance has been consistently found to be negatively associated with outcome in psychotherapy. However, the pathways through which resistance impacts such outcomes are underexplored. Given that client outcome expectation (OE) has been identified as an important common factor in psychotherapy, the goals of the present study were to examine: (a) the impact of resistance on subsequent client and therapist OE (COE & TOE, respectively); and (b) whether COE and/or TOE mediate the relationship between resistance and outcome. These relationships were tested among 44 clients with severe generalised anxiety disorder treated with cognitive‐behavioural therapy in the context of a randomised controlled trial (Westra, Constantino, & Antony, 2016). Resistance was measured at a mid‐treatment session, and COE and TOE were assessed at baseline and immediately after the resistance session. Treatment outcome was measured via client‐rated worry severity at post‐treatment. As predicted, higher resistance was associated with lower subsequent COE and TOE; B = ?.73, p < .001 and B = ?.46, p < .001, respectively. In turn, lower post‐resistance COE predicted higher post‐treatment worry (B = ?.5, p < .001), indicating mediation. In contrast, TOE did not mediate the relationship between resistance and outcome (B = ?.02, p = .876). These results suggest that resistance can be demoralising to both clients and therapists. However, only lower client morale may be detrimental to therapy outcome. This study contributes to understanding outcome pathways through two common therapy processes.     

Profiling Korean sex crimes: Offender characteristics and crime scene actions

The present study aimed to examine the demographic information of sex offenders in South Korea and explore whether a U.K. thematic model of criminal behaviour could be replicated in the Korean context. The 27 variables of crime scene actions derived from 50 Korean sexual offences through a content analysis were analysed with smallest space analysis. Chi‐square was also administered to explore the differences in offender characteristics among behavioural themes. Consequently, three separate action themes, hostility–involvement, theft, and control, were revealed. Next, each case was assigned to one of the dominant or hybrid themes, with 84% of the total cases being classified to the dominant themes. Moreover, there were significant differences in four offender characteristics between the themes: “previous conviction of robbery,” “previous conviction of sexual crime,” “knowing the victim,” and “vehicle use.” These outcomes have implications for the development of the Korean profiling system.     

Towards a new approach to predict business performance using machine learning

Financial ratio plays a crucial role in business performance prediction, but the ability of the decision maker to use this method in adjusting management strategy has been extensively ignored. In this paper we attempt to build a fuzzy chance constrained least squares twin support vector machine (FCC-LSTSVM) to predict the business performance through the financial ratios. Specifically, machine learning techniques are utilized to build the models and 796 listed companies in China are selected as the data set. We find that different efficiencies are performed for different models with the same industry and different effectiveness are shown for different predicting time periods with the same method. In addition, the predicting achievements of business performance depend on the types of industries. This paper has extent significance both in theoretical development and managerial practices.     

Postdecision consolidation in a trend prediction task

To be able to learn from experience it is necessary to correctly apprehend experienced feedback and the situation in which it is provided. The results indicate how post-decision consolidation in complex domains may affect learning. The problem may be particularly pertinent in recurrent decision making where considerable risk is involved. The study explores the changes in aspect (signal) importance from pre- to postdiction as a function of outcome information. By postdiction we mean the remembering of an earlier prediction (cf. Hawkins & Hastie, 1990). Subjects were asked to decide on which of four alternative future price developments would follow a historical price trajectory for different commodities, and to rate the importance of each of the chosen alternative's corresponding aspects. The subjects revealed a bias in their support ratings of aspects--seeing support in aspects that traditionally (by themselves and in many contexts) would be seen as neutral or even counter-indicative of the alternative chosen. After an intermission, the subjects were also given information about what was indicated to be the actual development of the market. One group was told that their decisions were correct (irrespective of what the decisions were), another group that they were incorrect but close, a third group that they were incorrect by far, while a fourth group served as a control. Following this information the subjects were again asked to judge the importance of the aspects for their own prior decision on the most likely future development. The results indicated that outcome feed-back had an effect on post decision restructuring of facts. Subjects in the correct condition showed an average consolidation that increased the support, while the wrong conditions lead to negative consolidation (in retrospect indicating that they never found as much support for their decision in the past as they actually did). Thus, in a choice between consolidating their own initial prediction and the price trajectory they would have to live with, the decision makers consolidated the outcome. Therefore, the results of the study were related to the hindsight bias phenomenon (Fischhoff, 1975) and to Kahneman and Miller's (1986) mutability concept.