Relevance-driven information search in “pseudodiagnostic” reasoning

When faced with two competing hypotheses, people sometimes prefer to look at multiple sources of information in support of one hypothesis rather than to establish the diagnostic value of a single piece of information for the two hypotheses. This is termed pseudodiagnostic reasoning and has often been understood to reflect, among other things, poor information search strategies. Past research suggests that diagnostic reasoning may be more easily fostered when participants seek data to help in the selection of one of two competing courses of action as opposed to situations where they seek data to help infer which of two competing hypotheses is true. In the experiment reported here, we provide the first empirical evidence demonstrating that manipulating the relevance of the feature for which participants initially receive information determines whether they will make a nominally diagnostic or pseudodiagnostic selection. The discussion of these findings focuses on implications for the ability to engage in diagnostic hypothesis testing.     

Identification and Testing of Modes in Beliefs

Characterizing diversity in beliefs is of paramount importance in empirical research on human behavior. In game theory, the focus is on the hypothesis formation. We present a data set with ideal properties for characterizing such diversity. The data consist of hypotheses on the empirical distribution of opponent choices. Using nonparametric techniques, we identify modes in the data corresponding to subpopulations of behavioral types and find the statistical significance of these modes in the underlying population distribution.     

Cognitive Functioning in Treatment-Seeking Gulf War Veterans: Pyridostigmine Bromide Use and PTSD

Gulf War (GW) deployed veterans have reported health symptoms since returning from the war that suggest dysfunction of the central nervous system (CNS). These symptoms include memory and concentration difficulties, fatigue, and headaches. Leading hypotheses for the etiology of these cognitive complaints include psychological factors and/or exposures to chemicals with neurotoxic properties. In this study, cognitive functioning was compared in treatment-seeking GW-deployed veterans and a treatment-seeking non–GW-deployed veteran control group. Results indicated that GW-deployed veterans performed significantly worse than the comparison group on tests of attention, visuospatial skills, visual memory, and mood. GW-deployed veterans who reported taking pyridostigmine bromide (PB) performed worse than GW-deployed veterans without PB use on executive system tasks. Treatment-seeking GW-deployed veterans with diagnoses of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) did not differ on cognitive test measures compared with GW-deployed veterans without PTSD. No interaction effect of PTSD and PB use was found.     

标准参照测验及其等级线信度的概化理论分析

在测量工作中,误用经典测验理论方法估计标准参照性测验的整体信度和等级线决策信度的情况非常突出。如,无论测量设计是交叉的还是嵌套的,也无论测验结果是做常模参照性解释,还是做标准参照性解释,测验工作者往往只报告克龙巴赫α系数或经典测验理论中的其它少数几个信度指标,而误把整体信度作为等级线信度的现象则更加普遍,这是十分不妥的。本文借用概化理论中的可靠性指数Φ和Φ(λ)公式,分别针对交叉设计和嵌套设计,就标准参照性测验的整体信度和等级分数线决策信度的估计问题进行了探讨。用数据演示的方法比较了交叉设计与嵌套设计在估计标准参照性测验整体信度方面的差异,展示了等级决策分数线决策信度的估计方法。     

The ‘mad scientists’: Psychoanalysis,dream and virtual reality2

The author explores the concept of reality‐testing as a means of assessing the relationship with reality that prevails in dream and in virtual reality. Based on a model developed by Jean Laplanche, she compares these activities in detail in order to determine their respective independence from the function of reality‐testing. By carefully examining the concept of hallucination in the writings of Freud and Daniel Dennett, the author seeks to pinpoint the specific modalities of interaction between perceptions, ideas, wishes and actions that converge in the ‘belief’ and in the ‘sense of reality’. The paper's main thesis consists of the distinction that it draws between immediacy‐testing and reality‐testing, with the further argument that this distinction not only dissipates the conceptual vagueness that generally surrounds the latter of the two concepts but also that it promotes a more precise analysis of the function of reality in dream and in virtual reality.     

Can we disregard the whole model? Omnibus non-inferiority testing for R2 in multi-variable linear regression and in ANOVA

Determining a lack of association between an outcome variable and a number of different explanatory variables is frequently necessary in order to disregard a proposed model (i.e., to confirm the lack of a meaningful association between an outcome and predictors). Despite this, the literature rarely offers information about, or technical recommendations concerning, the appropriate statistical methodology to be used to accomplish this task. This paper introduces non-inferiority tests for ANOVA and linear regression analyses, which correspond to the standard widely used F test for and R², respectively. A simulation study is conducted to examine the Type I error rates and statistical power of the tests, and a comparison is made with an alternative Bayesian testing approach. The results indicate that the proposed non-inferiority test is a potentially useful tool for ‘testing the null’.     

Computer-based Testing and Training with Scenarios from Complex Problem-solving Research: Advantages and Disadvantages

The use of PC-based simulations for selection and training for jobs which require complex problem solving skills is ever-increasing. This paper gives a short review of such simulations along with a list of advantages and disadvantages of their use. Possible future developments are sketched.     

Psychological Interventions and Genetic Testing: Facilitating Informed Decisions About BRCA1/2 Cancer Susceptibility

Genetic testing for inherited cancer susceptibility, based on the recently identified. BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, will soon be available on a large scale. However, at present, genetic test results do not lead to clearly indicated diagnostic or preventive measures, and the nature of the psychological impact of BRCA1/2 testing is still largely unknown. This uncertainty, combined with preliminary evidence suggesting significant individual differences in reactions to genetic susceptibility feedback, constitutes a unique challenge for any individual contemplating such testing. We outline the nature of this challenge and then propose an intervention strategy designed to help individuals make deeply processed and psychologically well-informed decisions with regard to their genetic susceptibility. The intervention is guided by recent research findings and theory on the cognitive–emotional processing of cancer-risk information. Specifically, the goal is to prepare the individual for genetic testing by (1) cognitively and emotionally activating, or preliving, the individual's potential reactions to testing feedback; (2) facilitating accurate appraisal of the individual's cognitive–emotional reactions; and (3) enabling the individual to process these reactions through the use of well-established clinical techniques.     

Social evaluation research: the evaluation of two police patrolling strategies

In most social evaluation research it is difficult to achieve the degree of experimental rigor possible in an applied behavioral study. This study illustrates how the evaluation researcher can increase experimental rigor in the analysis of social interventions. In the first evaluation, a variation of the time-series design that offered maximum experimental control given the limitations of the situation, was employed to evaluate the effects of a specialized home-burglary police patrol. This design revealed that no effects could be attributed to the patrol. In the second evaluation, a multiple baseline-like design was possible in determining the effects of a police walking patrol. This design revealed that the patrol produced an increase in crime reporting but not in arrests. Social interventions often occur in a manner that allows varying degrees of experimental analysis. The evaluation researcher must attain optimal experimental analysis given the limitations of each social intervention.     

A Test by Any Other Name: P Values,Bayes Factors,and Statistical Inference

Procedures used for statistical inference are receiving increased scrutiny as the scientific community studies the factors associated with insuring reproducible research. This note addresses recent negative attention directed at p values, the relationship of confidence intervals and tests, and the role of Bayesian inference and Bayes factors, with an eye toward better understanding these different strategies for statistical inference. We argue that researchers and data analysts too often resort to binary decisions (e.g., whether to reject or accept the null hypothesis) in settings where this may not be required.