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181.
In four studies, student and nonstudent participants evaluated the possible outcomes of binary decisions involving health, safety, and environmental risks (e.g., whether to issue a dam‐failure evacuation order). Many participants indicated that false positives (e.g., evacuation, but no dam failure) were better than true negatives (e.g., no evacuation and no dam failure), thereby implying that the more protective action dominated the less protective action. A common rationale for this response pattern was the precautionary maxim “better safe than sorry.” Participants apparently evaluated outcomes partly on the basis of the decisions that might lead to them, in conflict with consequentialist decision models. Consistent with this explanation, the prevalence of implied dominance decreased substantially when the emphasis on decisions was reduced. These results demonstrate that an initial preference for a decision alternative can alter the evaluation of possible consequences of both the preferred alternative and a competing alternative, suggesting positive feedback loops that reinforce the initial preference. The rationality of considering the decision itself as an attribute of possible outcomes is discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
182.
Alison Brause Kathryn Cason William Spelman 《International Journal of Applied Psychoanalytic Studies》2005,2(4):365-380
Current models for predicting US presidential elections focus on economic growth, the popularity of the current President, and incumbency. Most presume implicitly that the election is a referendum on the performance of the sitting President and his party. Characteristics of the opponent and personal characteristics of the incumbent party's candidate are not accounted for. In this paper, we explain and test a new model drawn from the literature on the performance of corporate executives. The model relies on objective measures of the complexity with which each candidate processes information. In all presidential elections for which these measures are available, the candidate who demonstrated the greater complexity of information processing won. Adding the information processing assessment also improves the predictive performance of current models. These findings suggest that the referendum model is needlessly limited, and that voters in fact compare the expected performance of both candidates before making a decision. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
183.
184.
The winner's curse phenomenon refers to the fact that the winner in a common value auction, in order to actually win the auction, is likely to have overestimated the item's value and consequently is likely to gain less than expected and may even lose (i.e., it is said to be “cursed”). Past research, using the “Acquiring a company” task has shown that people do not overcome this bias even after they receive extensive feedback. We suggest that the persistence of the winner's curse is due to a combination of two factors: variability in the environment that leads to ambiguous feedback (i.e., choices and outcomes are only partially correlated) and the tendency of decision makers to learn adaptively. We show in an experiment that by reducing the variance in the feedback, performance can be significantly improved. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
185.
本研究采用小学语文和数学视频教学录象为实验材料,以小学语文和数学教师为研究对象,运用反应时测量法探讨小学语文和数学教师对不同类型课堂信息的加工速度和辨别能力。研究结果表明:小学语文和数学教师处理课堂背景信息方面采用了相似的策略,忽略与课堂教学无关信息;语文和数学教师在处理课堂信息方面表现出明显的学科差异,语文教师更注重课堂活动的组织与课堂气氛的调节,数学教师强调学科内容教学本身的精确性;小学语文教师处理课堂活动信息的加工速度显著快于数学教师。本研究的结论对小学教师培训有一定的启示。 相似文献
186.
Recent decision‐making research claims to establish that, in violation of Savage's normative sure‐thing principle, individuals often wait to acquire noninstrumental information and subsequently base their decisions upon this information. The current research suggests that characterizing individuals as pursuing noninstrumental or useless information may be overstated. Through a series of experiments we establish, first, that many people choose to wait, even when waiting provides no additional information at all. Second, the longer people are allowed to wait before having to decide, the more people prefer to wait rather than decide immediately. Third, those individuals who choose to wait are the ones less confident about committing themselves to a decision. For them, the benefit from waiting may be especially valuable by allowing them to come to terms with a less‐than‐ideal decision. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
187.
Carl S. Helrich 《Zygon》2006,41(3):543-566
Abstract. I present a partially historical discussion of the basis of the quantum theory in nonmathematical terms using human knowledge and consciousness as an underlying theme. I show that the philosophical position in both classical and quantum theory is the experimental and mathematical philosophy of Isaac Newton. Because almost all the systems we deal with are multicomponent, we must consider the limitations and openness imposed by thermodynamics on our claims in both classical and quantum treatments. Here the reality of measurement stands in the way of any simple picture but also provides the basis for considerations of free will. Particular care is taken with the concepts of quantum measurement, entanglement, and decoherence because of their importance in the discussion. 相似文献
188.
Christopher R. Wolfe 《决策行为杂志》1995,8(2):85-108
Recently, the ‘heuristics and biases’ approach to the study of decision making has been criticized, with a call for better integrated theory. Three experiments stemming from fuzzy-trace theory addressed information seeking on probability problems, and the cognitive representation of hit-rates, base-rates, and the contrapositive. As predicted by the fuzzy-trace principle of ‘denominator neglect’, many subjects exhibited ‘conversion errors’, confusing the hit-rate, P(A|B), with the answer, P(B|A). These subjects sought base-rates less often than other subjects. On causal problems, more subjects correctly represented base-rates, sought base-rates more often, and produced more accurate estimates than on non-causal problems. Subjects tutored on the meaning of the hit-rate sought the base-rate more often, and were more accurate than control subjects. Results are explained by fuzzy-trace theory principles of gist extraction, fuzzy processing preference, denominator neglect, and output interference. 相似文献
189.
190.
Don A. Wicks 《Journal of Religious & Theological Information》2013,12(1-2):1-4
This article introduces the creation of a new research center focused on the study of information and religion. The Center, located at Kent State University, provides a new opportunity for scholars in the field of library and information science to collaborate with researchers in other disciplines in the exploration of many potential intersections of information and religion. The Center founders have already begun to present and publish in this area. Planned symposia and an annual conference add to the exposure of interested parties to ongoing studies in this field. 相似文献