Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities

We report results of an experiment designed to test a principle formulated by Budescu and Wallsten (1995), that, when communicating uncertainty information, mode choices are sensitive to sources and degrees of vagueness. In addition, we examined subjects’ efficacy in using such uncertainty information as a function of communication mode, source, and vagueness. In phase one of the experiment, subjects in a dyad used precise (numerical) or imprecise (verbal) expressions to communicate to a remote partner precise or vague uncertainty about the likelihoods of events. Spinner outcomes were used to generate precise uncertainty while answers to almanac questions were used to elicit vague uncertainty. In phase two, subjects saw the events paired with their partners’ estimates of similar events, and were asked to gamble on one event from each pair. Communication mode preferences were measured as the relative frequency that subjects chose the numerical mode to either express or receive uncertainty information regarding the events. Efficacy was measured as the relative frequency that subjects choose from the pair the event associated with the objectively more probable uncertainty expression. Underlying uncertainty interacted with direction of communication to affect preferences for modes of expression of the probabilities. Subjects preferred precise (numerical) information, especially for precise events (spinners). For vague events (questions), their preference for precise (numerical) information was stronger when receiving than when communicating information. Similar preferences were reflected in the efficiency of subsequent gamble decisions based on the probability estimates. Specifically, decisions were more efficacious (i.e. consistent with Expected Utility) when degrees of precision in events and estimates matched. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

寄养家庭属性对寄养儿童生活满意度的影响研究

本研究在对家庭寄养儿童进行调查的基础上,编制了家庭属性因素与寄养儿童生活满意度测评量表,并对寄养儿童进行了抽样调查,得出以下结论：1．家庭寄养儿童的生活满意度水平较高;2．影响寄养儿童生活满意度的家庭特质因素有寄养家庭结构和寄养父母的和谐程度;3．对寄养儿童生活满意度影响较大的寄养家庭社会因素是情感满足、行为支持、家庭主导情绪、需要满足。     

The ‘conjunction fallacy’ revisited: how intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors

Findings in recent research on the ‘conjunction fallacy’ have been taken as evidence that our minds are not designed to work by the rules of probability. This conclusion springs from the idea that norms should be content‐blind—in the present case, the assumption that sound reasoning requires following the conjunction rule of probability theory. But content‐blind norms overlook some of the intelligent ways in which humans deal with uncertainty, for instance, when drawing semantic and pragmatic inferences. In a series of studies, we first show that people infer nonmathematical meanings of the polysemous term ‘probability’ in the classic Linda conjunction problem. We then demonstrate that one can design contexts in which people infer mathematical meanings of the term and are therefore more likely to conform to the conjunction rule. Finally, we report evidence that the term ‘frequency’ narrows the spectrum of possible interpretations of ‘probability’ down to its mathematical meanings, and that this fact—rather than the presence or absence of ‘extensional cues’—accounts for the low proportion of violations of the conjunction rule when people are asked for frequency judgments. We conclude that a failure to recognize the human capacity for semantic and pragmatic inference can lead rational responses to be misclassified as fallacies. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of different mastery criteria on the skill maintenance of children with developmental disabilities

The acquisition of skills by individuals with developmental disabilities typically includes the attainment of a certain mastery criterion. We conducted a survey of practitioners who indicated the most commonly used mastery criterion as 80% accuracy across three consecutive sessions. Based on these results, we conducted a series of three experiments to evaluate the relation between mastery criterion and subsequent skill maintenance with 4 individuals with various developmental disabilities. Results suggest that 80% accuracy across three consecutive sessions may be insufficient for producing maintenance in some cases.     

对象概念的具身认知能力模型构建

研究旨在从具身认知视角重新建构概念熟悉度、概念掌握度及名词具身性的定义和评价指标,探索了具体名词的具身性与概念掌握度的关系。借助Amsel等(2012)的调查结果和MRC心理语言学数据,采用逻辑演绎与回归分析结合的建模法构建了376个具体名词的具身性与概念掌握度的关系模型,提出了具身认知能力假设。结果表明,对象概念的在线加工过程呈现出一个较长的“停滞期”,反映了认知主体的具身认知潜势。     

Perceived control effects on religiosity and quality of life among young adults

The study investigated the mediating role of perceived control in the association between religiosity and quality of life among young adults in south-west Nigeria. Data were collected from a sample of 1 050 young adults (mean age = 29.8, SD = 4.61; female = 38.7%). Regression analysis was utilised to predict quality of life from religiosity, partialling out perceived control. Findings suggest internal religiosity to predict an environmental domain of quality of life through perceived control. Perceived constraints appear to explain the association between internal religiosity and the environmental domain of quality of life.     

Resilience and suicide ideation: Coping mediator-moderator effects among adolescent learners

The current study aimed to investigate the influence of coping on the relationship between resilience and adolescent suicide ideation among secondary learners in the Free State Province, South Africa (n = 495; female = 61.6%; black = 55%, white = 27%, other = 18%; mean age = 13.99 years; SD = 0.83 years). The learners completed the Suicide Ideation Questionnaire (SIQ), the Revised Coping Schema Inventory (RCSI), and the Resiliency Scale for Children and Adolescents (RSCA). Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted to predict resilience-mediated suicide ideation from coping. Results suggested higher resilience scores on sense of mastery (SoM) and sense of relatedness (SoR) to predict lower suicide ideation risk among the teenagers. By contrast, higher scores on emotional reactivity (ER) predicted higher risk for suicide ideation. Religious coping (RC) moderated the relationship between resilience (sense of relatedness) and suicide ideation so that RC scores with SoM were associated with lower suicide ideation scores. Personal dispositions seem to explain risk for suicide ideation among adolescents.     

THE epistemologies of parsimony: A review of Ockham's razors: A user's manual by Elliott Sober

Sober analyzes two paradigms of parsimony that have been used successfully in science. These are associated with two interpretations of probability: Bayesian and frequentist. Sober applies these paradigms to problems in biology, psychology, and philosophy. In the chapter on psychology, he argues that objective data consisting of environmental input and two or more concurrent responses could be used to refute empirically the radical behaviorist thesis that probability of learned responses can be accounted for solely on the basis of environmental variables. Sober believes that such data are readily available and offers a thought experiment to illustrate his point. Behavior analysts, however, would want actual experimental data, undoubtedly with animals, before accepting any such refutation. Nonetheless, Sober's philosophical point about the type of experiment that would be capable of refuting this thesis is valid. The behavior analytic program, however, does not depend upon the truth of this thesis.     

Do Politicians Take Risks Like the Rest of Us? An Experimental Test of Prospect Theory Under MPs

Political psychologists have been quick to use prospect theory in their work, realizing its potential for explaining decisions under risk. Applying prospect theory to political decision‐making is not without problems, though, and here we address two of these: (1) Does prospect theory actually apply to political decision‐makers, or are politicians unlike the rest of us? (2) Which dimension do politicians use as their reference point when there are multiple dimensions (e.g., votes and policy)? We address both problems in an experiment with a unique sample of Dutch members of parliament as participants. We use well‐known (incentivized) decision situations and newly developed hypothetical political decision‐making scenarios. Our results indicate that politicians’ deviate from expected utility theory in the direction predicted by prospect theory but that these deviations are somewhat smaller than those of other people. Votes appear to be a more important determinant of politicians’ reference point than is policy.