Why God Has Left the Netherlands: Explanations for the Decline of Institutional Christianity in the Netherlands Between 1966 and 2015

Why has the Netherlands witnessed such a strong process of secularization? This article examines this process very extensively. Based on modernization theory, it follows several social cultural developments in Dutch society over the last 50 years and distinguishes between effects on the individual level as well as on the level of society. We are able to do so because of rich data availability, derived from micro‐level longitudinal surveys (God in the Netherlands, Social and Cultural Developments in the Netherlands) enriched with macro‐level statistics (Statistics Netherlands). With this integrated approach, we provide explanatory insights into the transition of the Netherlands from a predominant Christian nation to a predominant secular nation. Our analysis clearly shows that macro‐level educational expansion has affected this process of secularization in the Netherlands, supplemented with the increase in social security, as a so‐called cohort effect. Moreover, the long‐term effect of Christian socialization is waning; Dutch people who were raised in a religious way increasingly lapse later in their life.     

The use of multiple reference points in risky decision making

Among psychologists and economists, prospect theory continues to be one of the most popular models of decision making. The theory's key property is reference dependence; specifically, how an individual's perception of loss or gain is dependent upon their starting point (i.e., the status quo). Although prospect theory is widely accepted, other authors have sought the inclusion of reference points besides the status quo. Initially these extensions focused on the importance of single reference points such as goals. More recently, authors have explained choice data by including multiple reference points within the value function. Multiple‐reference‐point theories generally assume that many choice situations possess an implicit or explicit goal, or point an individual will strive to obtain, and/or a minimum requirement (i.e., a “lower bound”) above which an individual will strive to stay. In two experiments, we present evidence that individuals can utilize the minimum requirement, status quo, and goal within a single risky decision task. Participants most often chose to maximize their chance of reaching reference points even when that decision was riskier, resulted in lower expected value, resulted in lower expected utility, or ran contrary to the predictions of prospect theory. Furthermore, salience and uncertainty moderated the use of goals and minimum requirements as reference points. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A calibration explanation of serial position effects in evaluative judgments

Judges often evaluate stimulus series on dimensions for which no physical scale exists; for example, when judging academic ability in oral examinations. We propose that judges deal with this problem by calibrating an internal judgment scale that maps stimulus input onto available judgment categories. This calibration process implies serial position effects: Judges should initially avoid extreme categories, because using extreme categories reduces judgmental degrees of freedom, thereby increasing the possibility of internal consistency violations. In four experiments, we show that judgments become indeed more extreme later in a series of judgments. Judges evaluated the same good (poor) performances more positive (negative) at the end of a sequence compared to the beginning. Judges’ expertise did not prevent the effect, but allowing end-of-sequence judgments reduced serial position effects. We discuss the implications and possible remedies of these calibration effects on judgment extremity.     

When is ignorance bliss? The effects of inaccurate self-assessments of knowledge on learning and attrition

Two studies were conducted to examine the implications of inaccurate self-appraisals in online training. Self-assessment of knowledge moderated the effects of trainees’ performance on subsequent performance and attrition. Performance was highest after uniformly positive ratings (i.e., high self-assessment and high performance), followed by underestimation, overestimation, and uniformly negative ratings, respectively. Attrition was lowest after uniformly positive ratings, followed by underestimation, uniformly negative ratings, and overestimation, respectively. Effort had a more positive effect on performance following low than high self-assessments and this interaction fully mediated the self-assessment/performance interaction on subsequent performance. Commitment had a more negative effect on subsequent attrition following low than high self-assessments and this interaction fully mediated the self-assessment/performance interaction on subsequent attrition. Finally, trainee conscientiousness affected their behavior when their performance and self-assessments were inconsistent—overestimating and underestimating performance increased attrition more for trainees low in conscientiousness and impaired performance more for trainees high in conscientiousness.     

论八卦是八个逻辑范式

基于太极代数,本文证明八卦是八个逻辑范式,八卦中包含四对矛盾关系,其中"六子"构成辩证逻辑组。八卦是生命生产和思想生产都必须共同遵循的变化法则。学界似有这样的倾向,以为《周易》中只有类推逻辑而没有演绎逻辑,本文证明这种观点是不能成立的。八卦本质上就是演绎逻辑的,卦象的本质是逻辑法则。因此,基于卦象的联想或推理不能脱离八卦的逻辑内涵;否则,想象的灵活性必将导致卦象上的混淆,甚至使八卦沦为象数游戏的工具。     

筛选性决策和选择性决策的信息利用

在构像理论中,用来证明决策分为筛选和选择两个独立阶段的证据存在于：筛选阶段的信息在选择阶段不再被使用。本研究以构像理论为基础,设计实验室模拟实验,以实验情境中越来越苛刻的限制条件,迫使决策者在选择决策阶段不利用筛选信息,以此来检验决策者在选择决策阶段是否利用筛选信息,以及利用的程度和条件。实验情境的设计遵循这样一个原则：从信息最容易获得,记忆负荷最小的决策情境,过渡到信息最难以获得,记忆负荷最大的决策情境。研究得到以下结论：（1）筛选信息在大部分决策者进行选择性决策的时候得到了利用,用以选择最终的备择项;（2）随着选择决策过程中对于筛选信息的记忆负荷,以及认知负荷的增加,筛选信息在选择阶段被利用的可能性有所减少。     

Why brands should fear fearful consumers: How attachment style predicts retaliation

In two surveys of adult consumers, we find that attachment styles predict consumers' reactions after brand relationships end. Specifically, ‘fearful’ consumers—those high in both attachment anxiety and avoidance—are most likely to complain to third parties, to obsess about harming the brand, and to report seeking payback against brands. Two factors mediate the effect of attachment on reactions: threats to consumers' self-image and the loss of benefits from their relationship. This is consistent with the explanation we propose: specifically, fearful individuals invest in and depend more on consumption relationships and, therefore, lose more when such relationships end.     

Multi‐Criteria Evaluation for Collaborative Circulating Farming with Collective Operations Between Arable and Cattle Farmers

Tokachi sub‐prefecture in Hokkaido is one of the most famous dairy and crop farming regions in Japan. It is known that Tokachi is faced with various difficult problems such as soil degradation, water contamination and unpleasant odours because of the excessive use of chemical fertilizers and inappropriate treatment of livestock excretion. In this paper, we focus on Shihoro town where agricultural outputs are relatively large in Tokachi, and propose collaborative circulating farming with collective operations between arable and cattle farmers. Under the assumption that the decision‐maker in this problem is a representative of a farming organization who hopes for sustainable agricultural development and values the intentions of local residents including arable and cattle farmers in this region, we employ multi‐attribute utility theory in order to evaluate multiple alternatives of the farming management problem. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post G20: The Challenge of Change,Implementing Evidence‐based Public Order Policing

In the wake of the 2011 ‘riots’, public order policing tactics in England and Wales have once again been brought into question. Yet, the riots came two years since police regulatory authorities in the UK called for fundamental reforms to the policing of public order. Questions are raised about why the change called for appears to have been so slow and what can be done to assist reform. This paper suggests that developing an evidence‐based policing approach within the field of public order policing to inform police decision‐making would provide the answers. By doing so, the paper addresses some of the possible barriers to implementing evidence‐based policing in public order and calls for police academic partnership to overcome these to make ‘change’ an ongoing reality. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The functions of music and their relationship to music preference in India and Germany

Is the use of music in everyday life a culturally universal phenomenon? And do the functions served by music contribute to the development of music preferences regardless of the listener's cultural background? The present study explored similarities and dissimilarities in the functions of music listening and their relationship to music preferences in two countries with different cultural backgrounds: India as an example of a collectivistic society and Germany as an example of an individualistic society. Respondents were asked to what degree their favorite music serves several functions in their life. The functions were summarized in seven main groups: background entertainment, prompt for memories, diversion, emotion regulation, self‐regulation, self‐reflection, and social bonding. Results indicate a strong similarity of the functions of people's favorite music for Indian and German listeners. Among the Indians, all of the seven functions were rated as meaningful; among the Germans, this was the case for all functions except emotion regulation. However, a pronounced dissimilarity was found in the predictive power of the functions of music for the strength of music preference, which was much stronger for Germans than for Indians. In India, the functions of music most predictive for music preference were diversion, self‐reflection, and social bonding. In Germany, the most predictive functions were emotion regulation, diversion, self‐reflection, prompt for memories, and social bonding. It is concluded that potential cultural differences hardly apply to the functional use of music in everyday life, but they do so with respect to the impact of the functions on the development of music preference. The present results are consistent with the assumption that members of a collectivistic society tend to set a higher value on their social and societal integration and their connectedness to each other than do members of individualistic societies.