Random error reduction in analytic hierarchies: a comparison of holistic and decompositional decision strategies

The principle of ‘divide and conquer’ (DAC) suggests that complex decision problems should be decomposed into smaller, more manageable parts, and that these parts should be logically aggregated to derive an overall value for each alternative. Decompositional procedures have been contrasted with holistic evaluations that require decision makers to simultaneously consider all the relevant attributes of the alternatives under consideration (Fischer, 1977 ). One area where decompositional procedures have a clear advantage over holistic procedures is in the reduction of random error (Ravinder, 1992 ; Ravinder and Kleinmuntz, 1991 ; Kleinmuntz, 1990 ). Adopting the framework originally developed by Ravinder and colleagues, this paper details the results of a study of the random error variances associated with another popular multi‐criteria decision‐making technique, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); (Saaty, 1977 , 1980 ), as well as the random error variances of a holistic version of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (Jensen, 1983 ). In addition, data concerning various psychometric properties (e.g. the convergent validity and temporal stability) and values of AHP inconsistency are reported for both the decompositional and holistic evaluations. The results of the study show that the Ravinder and Kleinmuntz ( 1991 ) error‐propagation framework extends to the AHP and decompositional AHP judgments are more consistent than their holistic counterparts. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

任务图式对文章修改的影响研究

本研究探讨任务图式对文章修改的影响。高低水平的作者先完成一个写作任务,再修改文章的初稿。修改时,实验组学生先接受关于正确修改的任务图式指导,控制组学生则直接进行修改。实验结果表明,任务图式指导有明显的主效应,高低水平作者均提高了对字面错误与意义错误的正确修改,而水平间的差异主要表现在意义错误的修改上。本研究还分析了任务图式指导对修改的字数(包括改变意义与保留意义的字数)、修改的句法水平(包括字、词和句子)以及修改的方式(包括插入、替换、删除和移动句子)的影响。     

Anatomy of an error: A bidirectional state model of task engagement/disengagement and attention-related errors

We present arguments and evidence for a three-state attentional model of task engagement/disengagement. The model postulates three states of mind-wandering: occurrent task inattention, generic task inattention, and response disengagement. We hypothesize that all three states are both causes and consequences of task performance outcomes and apply across a variety of experimental and real-world tasks. We apply this model to the analysis of a widely used GO/NOGO task, the Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART). We identify three performance characteristics of the SART that map onto the three states of the model: RT variability, anticipations, and omissions. Predictions based on the model are tested, and largely corroborated, via regression and lag-sequential analyses of both successful and unsuccessful withholding on NOGO trials as well as self-reported mind-wandering and everyday cognitive errors. The results revealed theoretically consistent temporal associations among the state indicators and between these and SART errors as well as with self-report measures. Lag analysis was consistent with the hypotheses that temporal transitions among states are often extremely abrupt and that the association between mind-wandering and performance is bidirectional. The bidirectional effects suggest that errors constitute important occasions for reactive mind-wandering. The model also enables concrete phenomenological, behavioral, and physiological predictions for future research.     

初中生的错误观与错误应对方式对学习成绩的影响

通过819名初中生完成初中生错误观问卷与错误应对方式问卷,探讨初中生的错误观和错误应对方式对学习成绩的影响,结果表明:1)初中生的错误观中,错误容忍度维度平均每题得分最低,错误判断源居中,对错误的价值认可度最高。2)初中生的错误应对方式中,逃避错误维度平均每题得分最低,消极情绪居中,处理错误最高。3)初中生错误观中的价值认可度是通过错误应对方式中的处理错误和逃避错误的中介作用而影响学习成绩的。     

创业者差错取向的绩效作用及其跨文化比较

创业企业是创业者的延伸,但创业者对创业企业的影响究竟是怎样的,当前的研究进展还不能很好的解释这点。研究采用跨文化比较的方法,首先分析中国和德国的创业者差错取向对创业企业差错气氛的影响模式,然后检验中国样本和德国样本的跨文化测量等同性,之后对比并综合分析两组样本模型的异同。研究发现在中国样本模型中,创业企业差错气氛在创业者差错取向的绩效影响中不起中介作用,而在德国样本模型中正相反。此外,研究还发现创业者个性特质对企业组织气氛存在一种“投影”影响     

Born to be biased? Unrealistic optimism and error management theory

When individuals display cognitive biases, they are prone to developing systematically false beliefs. Evolutionary psychologists have argued that rather than being a flaw in human cognition, biases may actually be design features. In my paper, I assess the claim that unrealistic optimism is such a design feature because it is a form of error management. Proponents of this theory say that when individuals make decisions under uncertainty, it can be advantageous to err on the side of overconfidence if the potential gains through success are high and the costs of failure are low. I argue that there are a number of conceptual problems in matching the theory with the existing data. I also show that there is empirical evidence against the error management hypothesis.     

物体受力分析正误样例组合的学习效果

分别采用正误样例组合、有无错误标记的正误样例组合和有标记的正误样例配对组合设计方法,以物体受力分析正误样例为实验材料,以初中三年级学生为被试进行3项实验,考察了被试物体受力分析图正误样例组合的学习效果。结果表明,正误样例组合的学习成绩显著优于正确样例组合的学习成绩;有标记的正误样例组合的学习成绩显著优于无标记样例组合的学习成绩;有标记正误样例配对组合的学习成绩明显优于正确样例组合的学习成绩。     

Using the dual‐criteria methods to supplement visual inspection: An analysis of nonsimulated data

The purpose of our study was to examine the probability of observing false positives in nonsimulated data using the dual‐criteria methods. We extracted data from published studies to produce a series of 16,927 datasets and then assessed the proportion of false positives for various phase lengths. Our results indicate that collecting at least three data points in the first phase (Phase A) and at least five data points in the second phase (Phase B) is generally sufficient to produce acceptable levels of false positives.     

What are other-rated scales composed of? Sources of measurement error and true trait variance in other-ratings of the Big Five

Other-ratings of targets’ traits may consist – besides true trait variance (TTV) – of different measurement error sources, particularly due to raters, scales, items, measurement times, and random fluctuations. Using Gnambs’ (2015) and Ones, Wiernik, Wilmot, and Kostal’s (2016) procedures for partitioning variance in scales due to measurement error, available meta-analytical data on Big Five other-ratings were analyzed. They showed relatively little TTV (0–13%), which was especially decreased by both low inter-rater reliability and convergent validity of Big Five measures. Accounting for both, TTV levels rose, but were still small to medium (4–26%). These findings provide important insights on what Big Five other-ratings are composed of and how such scale scores may be interpreted and treated in further analyses (e.g., trait-outcome relations).     

Adaptive scaling of reward in episodic memory: a replication study

Reward is thought to enhance episodic memory formation via dopaminergic consolidation. Bunzeck, Dayan, Dolan, and Duzel [(2010). A common mechanism for adaptive scaling of reward and novelty. Human Brain Mapping, 31, 1380–1394] provided functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and behavioural evidence that reward and episodic memory systems are sensitive to the contextual value of a reward—whether it is relatively higher or lower—as opposed to absolute value or prediction error. We carried out a direct replication of their behavioural study and did not replicate their finding that memory performance associated with reward follows this pattern of adaptive scaling. An effect of reward outcome was in the opposite direction to that in the original study, with lower reward outcomes leading to better memory than higher outcomes. There was a marginal effect of reward context, suggesting that expected value affected memory performance. We discuss the robustness of the reward memory relationship to variations in reward context, and whether other reward-related factors have a more reliable influence on episodic memory.