On the processing of arguments

This paper is concerned with the processing of informal arguments, that is, arguments involving probable truth. A model of informal argument processing is presented that is based upon Hample's (1977) expansion of Toulmin's (1958) model of argument structure. The model postulates that a claim activates an attitude, the two components forming a complex that in turn activates reasons. Furthermore, the model holds occurrence of the reason, or possibly the claim and the reason, activates values. Three experiments are described that provide support for the model.This research was supported by the Mellon Foundation and by the Office of Educational Research and Improvement of the Department of Education via an award for the Center for the Study of Learning to the Learning Research and Development Center. The contents of the paper are not necessarily the position of any of these organizations.     

Culture wars: American moral divisions across the adult lifespan

Sociologists have argued that the public moral debate in contemporary America is characterized by a “culture war,” pitting “orthodox” and “progressivist” groups against one another (Hunter, 1991). This study addressed whether the culture war is evident in the moral thinking of ordinary Americans, and whether age-related patterns exist. Sixty fundamentalist Baptists (orthodox) and 60 mainline Baptists (progressivist) evaluated and reasoned about moral issues such as divorce and abortion. Each group was divided evenly into three age groups copsisting of young, midlife, and older adults. Moral reasoning was analyzed in terms of Shweder's (1990) ethics of autonomy, community, and divinity. Within all three age groups, progressivists used the ethic of, autonomy more than orthodox participants. Orthodox participants used the ethic of divinity more than progressivists. Orthodox and progressivist groups did not differ much in their use of the ethic, of community. Very few age group differences were found within the orthodox and progressivist groups. It is concluded that morality is conceived of in markedly different wasy by orthodox and progressivist groups, and that these conceptions are consistent across age groups.     

Use and misuse of metrics in research evaluation

This paper addresses some critical issues in the applicability of quantitative performance measures (including bibliometric, economic, and co-occurrence measures) to the assessment of basic research. The strengths and weaknesses of metrics applied as research performance measures are examined. It is concluded that metrics have a useful role to play in the evaluation of research. Each metric employed, whether bibliometric, economic, co-occurrence, or others, brings a new dimension of potential insight to the complex problem of research assessment. However, when used in a stand-alone mode, metrics can be easily misinterpreted and result in misleading conclusions. Metrics should be an integral part of a more comprehensive approach to research evaluation, in which the leading role is assumed by expert peer review. Under this structure, the reviewers must be broadly constituted, so that the technical correctness of the research approaches being taken (doing the job right) can be evaluated by technical experts and the correctness of the research target (doing the right job) can be evaluated as well. This comprehensive approach insures quality in the implementation of existing research paradigms and allows the introduction of revolutionary new research paradigms as well. The views contained in this paper are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of the Department of the Navy. Ronald Kostoff received a Ph.D. from Princeton University, performed technical and economic research at Bell Laboratories, managed energy programs at U.S. Department of Energy, was Director of Technical Assessment at the Office of Naval Research for many years and presently manages the Navy’s In-House Laboratory Independent Research Program.     

Effects of Different Telephone Intervention Styles with Suicidal Callers at Two Suicide Prevention Centers: An Empirical Investigation

To determine the relative effectiveness of telephone intervention styles with suicidal callers, researchers listened unobtrusively to 617 calls by suicidal persons at two suicide prevention centers and categorized all 66,953 responses by the 110 volunteer helpers according to a reliable 20-category checklist. Outcome measures showed observer evaluations of decreased depressive mood from the beginning to the end in 14% of calls, decreased suicidal urgency ratings from the beginning to the end in 27% of calls, and reaching a contract in 68% of calls, of which 54% of contracts were upheld according to follow-up data. Within the context of relatively directive interventions, a greater proportion of Rogerian nondirective responses was related to significantly more decreases in depression. Reduction in urgency and reaching a contract were related to greater use of Rogerian response categories only with nonchronic callers.     

Apocalyptic Argument and the Anticipation of Catastrophe: the Prediction of Risk and the Risks of Prediction

This essay proposes to extend the model of apocalyptic argument developedin my recent book Arguing the Apocalypse (OLeary, 1994) beyond the study ofreligious discourse, by applying this model to the debate over awell-publicized earthquake prediction that caused a widespread panic in theAmerican midwest in December, 1990. The first section of the essay willsummarize the essential elements of apocalyptic argument as I have earlierdefined them; the second section will apply the model to the case of the NewMadrid, Missouri, earthquake prediction, in order to demonstrate thatcertain patterns of reasoning characteristic of religious apocalyptic arepresent in the discourse over an anticipated local disaster. My ultimatepurpose is to show that predictions of global and local catastrophe mayserve as extreme cases that will illuminate the dynamics of predictiveargument in general. Thus my argument will seek to undercut Daniel Bellsdistinction between prophecy and prediction (Bell, 1973) by establishingthat these discourses share identifiable formal and substantivecharacteristics, and depend for their rhetorical effect on anxiety, hope,far, and excitement as modes of temporal anticipation.     

内部分配改革的职务评价技术探新

建立工资标准系统的关键是确定职务工资率。职务间可比价值成分变异越大,对确定职务工资率的贡献也越大。根据以上研究设想采用方差分析方法进行职务评价。评价步骤包括：职务描述;对职务要素作主成分分析;对职务样本作聚类分析和判别分析;通过方差分析为可比价值各成分建构权重系数ωｉ。ωｉ‘满足：（１）ωｉ≥０;（２）Σωｉ＝１;（３）ωｉ,间可直接比较;（４）ωｉ的大小与对应的可比价值成分变异一致。最后将职务评价值线性变换为工资率。在线性方程中配一个常数。和调节系数α以适合组织的管理约束条件。配合两个企业内部分配改革的研究结果显示了方差分析法的有效性和实用性。     

Evaluating pediatric psychology consultation services in a medical setting: An example

We examined the nature of referrals to a health center-based pediatric psychology service from 1990 to 1993 and assessed the satisfaction of health professionals with these services. Archival evaluation of 1467 records showed that over half of the consultation requests came from general pediatrics, pediatric neurology, and surgical services and that 70% of the psychological services were delivered on an outpatient basis. The most frequent referrals were for cognitive/neuropsychological evaluation and externalizing behavior problems. Pediatric psychology trainees were involved in 94% of the consultations. Survey of health professionals (n = 143) indicated very high overall satisfaction with the quality of services delivered. Presenting problems yielding the greatest likelihood for future consultation requests were behavior problems, child abuse, coping with illness, and depression/suicide. Results are discussed in the context of previous evaluations of pediatric psychology services and recommendations for future evaluation research.     

Involving the family in the evaluation and treatment of the child patient: A psychodynamic approach

The purpose of this article is to provide psychotherapists with a tool for family evaluation using the basic principles of psychodynamic work; and to introduce a transitional format for therapists who have practiced family evaluations in their training institutions and now need to adapt this model to the private practitioner's office. A case example illustrates: (1) Use of the therapist's unconscious for diagnosis of the child and its family, (2) joining the family's intersubjective space, and (3) use of play and therapist's neutrality as ways that the psychodynamically oriented clinician involves the family in the evaluation and treatment of the child.     

Success,social comparison,and self-assessment: Parents' midlife evaluations of sons,daughters, and self

The literatures on sex-role socialization and social comparison theory were used to predict how parents would evaluate the life success of adult sons and daughters and how parents' assessments of themselves would be influenced by comparisons with these children. Although parents (N=215) did not report different levels of life success for 291 adult sons versus 251 adult daughters, parental well-being was more closely tied to assessments of sons' success. In addition, although parents' reported that both sons and daughters had exceeded their own life success, theparent-child comparison with daughters was the better predictor of parents' well-being. Findings are discussed in terms of parents' individual development, family processes at midlife, and cohort differences between parents and their children.     

飞行错觉水平评定方法的初步研究

本文从飞行错觉发生的类型和频率出发,尝试对飞行员在实际飞行中所产生的错觉水平或空间定向能力做出基本的评定。本研究采用区间模糊统计的方法,对飞行错觉的类型（倾斜错觉、俯仰错觉、方位错觉、反旋转错觉和倒飞错觉）和频率（从无、偶尔、时有、经常、总是）做了经验的赋值工作,分别计算出了这些模糊概念（除从无外）的心理量表值和模糊度。同时我们认为,飞行错觉水平是频率与类型的函数,其数学表达式为：,并将这一表达式作为评定飞行员飞行错觉水平的基本模型。