Probability judgment accuracy for general knowledge. Cross-national differences and assessment methods

In this study we compare the probability judgment accuracy of subjects from the United States and Turkey. Three different response modes were employed — numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. The questions employed in the study were restricted to two-alternative, general-knowledge items. The observed pattern of differences in the components of probability judgment accuracy paralleled those of studies that have compared Western and Asian subjects. In particular, Turkish subjects exhibited better discrimination but worse calibration than their US counterparts. This result persisted across all three response modes. These findings lend support to previous assertions that observed cross-national differences arise from socioeconomic rather than Asian versus Western cultural differences. However, the consistency of the observed differences across response modes refutes a previous assertion that observed cultural differences are merely the result of response bias.     

Adaptive non-interventional heuristics for covariation detection in causal induction: model comparison and rational analysis

In this article, 41 models of covariation detection from 2 × 2 contingency tables were evaluated against past data in the literature and against data from new experiments. A new model was also included based on a limiting case of the normative phi-coefficient under an extreme rarity assumption, which has been shown to be an important factor in covariation detection (McKenzie & Mikkelsen, 2007) and data selection (Hattori, 2002; Oaksford & Chater, 1994, 2003). The results were supportive of the new model. To investigate its explanatory adequacy, a rational analysis using two computer simulations was conducted. These simulations revealed the environmental conditions and the memory restrictions under which the new model best approximates the normative model of covariation detection in these tasks. They thus demonstrated the adaptive rationality of the new model.     

母亲评价与幼儿数学认知发展的关系

母亲对幼儿数学能力的评价是母亲教育观念的重要组成部分。研究运用问卷法与个别测查法,考察母亲对子女数学能力的评价与幼儿数学认知能力,并通过二者的一致程度揭示母亲评价其子女数学能力的准确性。研究发现,母亲对子女数学能力的评价存在明显的高估倾向;与母亲受教育水平及子女性别等因素不同,子女前期的数学成绩对母亲评价其数学能力的准确性存在显著影响;母亲对子女数学能力评价的准确性与子女数学认知发展水平存在显著的正相关,适当的高估对子女未来数学认知的发展最为有利     

Establishing and Evaluating the Substantive Adequacy of Positive Behavioral Support Plans

The Individuals with Disabilities Education Improvement Act (2004) renewed the commitment to provide positive behavioral support (PBS) for students that engage in persistent problem behavior. Behavior intervention plans (also known as PBS plans) serve as legal documents that help guide the implementation of intervention strategies to encourage more positive forms of behavior. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the substantive adequacy of PBS plans developed for special education students. This was accomplished by documenting the content of plans developed by two different groups of educators using a rating instrument based on the key concepts of PBS planning. Results revealed that the majority of plans developed by teams without identified training and expertise in PBS were rated as substantively inadequate, lacking critical information related to effective behavioral support planning. The implications of the results for everyday practice in the schools and directions for future research are discussed.     

A Bayesian view of covariation assessment

When participants assess the relationship between two variables, each with levels of presence and absence, the two most robust phenomena are that: (a) observing the joint presence of the variables has the largest impact on judgment and observing joint absence has the smallest impact, and (b) participants' prior beliefs about the variables' relationship influence judgment. Both phenomena represent departures from the traditional normative model (the phi coefficient or related measures) and have therefore been interpreted as systematic errors. However, both phenomena are consistent with a Bayesian approach to the task. From a Bayesian perspective: (a) joint presence is normatively more informative than joint absence if the presence of variables is rarer than their absence, and (b) failing to incorporate prior beliefs is a normative error. Empirical evidence is reported showing that joint absence is seen as more informative than joint presence when it is clear that absence of the variables, rather than their presence, is rare.     

Capturing worry in daily life: are trait questionnaires sufficient?

Worry is crucial in the development and maintenance of anxiety disorders and has been associated with several other adverse health outcomes. Yet, little is known about the frequency and perseveration of worry in daily life, and its predictability by widely used trait questionnaires. In this study 432 students completed the Penn State Worry Questionnaire (PSWQ), the Worry Domains Questionnaire (WDQ) and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory-Trait version (STAI-T) and kept a log of worry frequency and duration during six consecutive days and nights. The results showed that worry is a very common phenomenon that is predicted by the two trait worry questionnaires, independent of trait anxiety. The often clinically utilized PSWQ predicted worry duration better than the WDQ, and exclusively predicted night-time worry and several other indices of perseverative and potentially pathogenic worry. Although this study provides some support for the predictive validity of the PSWQ and the WDQ, these questionnaires did not account for the larger part of variance in daily worry. Future studies of worry and its associated perseverative processes should consider using momentary assessments.     

The effects of consequence manipulation during functional analysis of problem behavior maintained by negative reinforcement

Two distinct analytic methods have been used to identify the function of problem behavior. The antecedent-behavior-consequence (ABC) method (Iwata, Dorsey, Slifer, Bauman, & Richman, 1982/1994) includes the delivery of consequences for problem behavior. The AB method (Carr & Durand, 1985) does not include consequence delivery, instead relying exclusively on antecedent conditions to evoke the behavior. The AB and ABC functional analysis methods were compared in this study with 4 children with developmental disabilities who engaged in task-related problem behavior. Results show that the ABC method identified an escape method for all four cases, whereas the AB method failed to identify a function for any case.     

A method for describing preschoolers' activity preferences

We designed a series of analyses to develop a measurement system capable of simultaneously recording the free-play patterns of 20 children in a preschool classroom. Study 1 determined the intermittency with which the location and engagement of each child could be momentarily observed before the accuracy of the measurement was compromised. Results showed that intervals up to 120 s introduced less than 10% measurement error. Study 2 determined the extent of agreement between two observers who simultaneously collected data for 20 children using 30-, 60-, 90-, and 120-s momentary time sampling (MTS) intervals. The three larger intervals resulted in high levels of interobserver agreement (above 90%), whereas the 30-s interval resulted in unacceptably low levels of agreement (less than 80%). By allowing observers to select from among the different MTS intervals via a datasheet array and then collect data with the chosen system, Study 3 determined observers' preferences for the remaining MTS intervals. Both data collectors preferred the 90-s MTS procedure. The sensitivity of the 90-s MTS procedure, which was shown to be accurate, reliable, and preferred, was then demonstrated by its use to describe activity preferences of a classroom of children in Study 4. This system identified high- and low-preference activities for individual children and revealed interesting patterns of response allocation by the group.     

Antecedent effects of observing peer play

The relative reinforcing value of toys was assessed in the absence of, and immediately following, participant observation of a peer manipulating one of the toys. Preference assessments were used to identify preference hierarchies. Reinforcer assessments were conducted with a high-preference item, a low-preference item, and a control. Each participant allocated responding toward the high-preference item during baseline. When reinforcer assessment sessions were preceded by a peer observation period, 3 of the 4 participants shifted allocation to the toy manipulated by the peer. The 4th participant shifted allocation only when the high-preference stimulus was replaced with a medium-preference stimulus. These data suggest that, among preschoolers, response allocation is influenced by observations of peers playing.