Collective efficacy and vigilant problem solving in group decision making: A non-linear model

This research explores the relationship between collective efficacy and aspects of analytic or vigilant problem solving (Janis, 1989) in the context of group decision making. We hypothesized that vigilant problem solving would be most evident under conditions of relatively moderate collective efficacy, as opposed to either very high or very low collective efficacy. We investigated this hypothesis with groups of business students who participated in a complex business strategy simulation. Results show a significant curvilinear relationship between collective efficacy and vigilant problem solving, and a significant linear relationship between vigilant problem solving and decision outcomes. There is also evidence that vigilant problem solving mediates the relationship between collective efficacy and decision outcomes. Implications for theory, managerial practice, and directions for future research are discussed.     

Decision‐making competence: External validation through an individual‐differences approach

This study asks to what extent (a) individuals show consistent performance differences across typical behavioral decision‐making tasks, and (b) how those differences correlate with plausible real‐world correlates of good decision making. Seven tasks, chosen to span the domain of decision‐making skills, were administered to participants in an ongoing longitudinal study providing extensive social, psychological, and behavioral measures. Performance scores on individual tasks generally showed small, positive inter‐task correlations. An aggregate measure of decision‐making competence (DMC) was appropriately correlated with plausible sources, concomitants, and outcomes of good decision making, suggesting the underlying construct's external validity. Higher DMC scores were associated with more intact social environments, more constructive cognitive styles, and fewer ‘maladaptive’ risk behaviors. In each case, DMC adds to the predictive validity of general measures of cognitive ability. These results suggest that poor decision making on common laboratory tasks is related to real‐world antecedents and consequences of poor decision making. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The recalcitrance of overconfidence and its contribution to decision aid neglect

Three experiments tested the hypothesis that people's overconfidence in the quality of their intuitive judgment strategies contributes to their reluctance to use helpful actuarial judgment aids. Participants engaged in a judgment task that required them to use five cues to decide whether a prospective juror favored physician‐assisted suicide. Participants had the opportunity to examine the judgments of a statistical equation that correctly classified 77% of the prospective jurors. In all experiments, participants infrequently examined the equation, performed worse than the equation, and were highly overconfident. In Experiments 1 and 2, outcome feedback and calibration feedback failed to reduce overconfidence. In Experiment 3, enhanced calibration feedback reduced overconfidence and increased reliance on the equation, thus leading to improved judgment performance. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Individual differences in the response to forgone payoffs: an examination of high functioning drug abusers

This study evaluates the effect of forgone payoffs in decision‐making tasks used for studying individual differences. We investigate whether the disclosure of forgone payoffs (defined as payoffs associated with un‐chosen alternatives) has selective effects for drug abusers. Evidence suggests that drug abusers are hypersensitive to signals of positive reward. Accordingly, because the forgone payoffs of risky high‐variability options include rewarding outcomes, this may create a distraction and lead drug abusers to make more risky choices. In a controlled experiment, we examined the behavior of high‐functioning drug abusers and healthy controls using the Iowa gambling task. The results showed that in a forgone payoff condition, drug abusers made more risky choices. The results demonstrate that adding information about forgone payoffs can be useful for studying individual differences, and that studying individual differences can be valuable in evaluating the effects of forgone payoffs. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高三学生生涯未决的类型研究

生涯未决是生涯决策研究的一个重要问题。本文通过生涯决策困难和职业认同等测量工具调查了300名高中生,试图探讨生涯未决的类型。采用聚类分析,结果发现了5类未决类型:不知所措型、犹豫不决型、不良信念型、动机不足型、应对良好型。对总体决策困难和职业认同的差异检验证实了这五种类型。     

短暂性脑缺血发作临床定义更新与临床决策

短暂性脑缺血发作(TIA)在临床上是一种即将发生卒中的紧急先兆,俗称“中风警报”。对其定义的内容一直存在较大的争议。但近年来随着神经影像学技术的不断发展及临床认识水平的提高,TIA临床定义的内容逐步趋于完善,对临床更加科学合理地处理该病具有十分重要的临床意义。     

行为决策视野中的幸福及其提升策略

人类的终极目标之一就是获得幸福。随着行为决策研究的不断发展, 近年来有许多行为决策领域的研究者开始了对幸福的探索。行为决策中的幸福法则包括：快乐编辑、少即是更好、巅峰-结尾法则、短视和损失规避。基于这些法则的提升幸福的策略主要包括：告诉消息的策略、赠送礼物的策略、使用损失规避提升幸福的策略、使用巅峰-结尾法则提升幸福的策略和克服行为短视的策略。     

复杂决策规则下MIRT的分类准确性和分类一致性

介绍多维项目反应理论模型下分类准确性和分类一致性指标, 采用蒙特卡罗方法实现复杂决策规则下指标计算, 并从数学上证明分类准确性指标两类估计量在均匀先验和相同决策规则条件下依概率收敛于同一真值。研究结果表明：分类准确性指标可以比较准确地评价分类结果的准确性; 分类一致性指标可以较好地评价分类结果的重测一致性; 在一定条件下, 基于能力量尺的指标优于基于原始总分的指标; 纵使测验维度增加, 估计精度仍比较好; 随着测验长度和维度间相关增加, 分类准确性和分类一致性更高。指标可以用来评价标准参照测验或计算机分类测验的多种决策规则下分类信度和效度。     

Obsessive compulsive features predict cautious decision strategies

Introduction: Obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) is occasionally characterized by decision-making deficits. Compared to the isolated analysis of the choice and response times, characterizing decision outputs at the level of latent processes can be a more powerful approach in revealing differences, even in subclinical cases. We hypothesized that participants with higher obsessive compulsive (OC) features would set their decision thresholds higher and thus make more cautious decisions. Method: We used a perceptual two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) task (dot motion discrimination) to test this hypothesis in a non-clinical sample (N?=?74). We fitted the data with the diffusion model and evaluated the optimality of decision outputs. We also conducted exploratory analyses to reveal which subscales best predicted the differences at the level of latent decision processes. Results: Higher OC total scores in Maudsley and Padua scales significantly predicted higher threshold settings (cautiousness). The follow-up exploratory analyses with subscale scores showed that checking and rumination tendencies predicted higher threshold settings whereas washing tendency predicted faster non-decision times. Conclusions: Our primary results showed that participants with higher degrees of OC features exhibit more cautious decision making. Our exploratory analyses also revealed distinctions based on different types of OC features in both controlled (cautiousness in decision making) and automatic (faster non-decision times) elements of the decision process.     

国外临床决策研究进展（上）

2004年～2010年国际医学决策学会年会,提出许多与临床相关的决策问题,其中包括健康经济学与成本效益分析,临床方法学研究进展,医患双方的临床决策选择,公共卫生服务研究和诊疗策略的关系,临床策略与治疗指南,高新技术与适宜技术等。本文就以上问题,尤其是临床决策研究热点,对国外临床决策研究进展进行总结、探讨和评价,为临床应...