Inventor perseverance after being told to quit: the role of cognitive biases

We find that approximately one third (29%) of independent inventors continue to spend money and 51% continue to spend time on projects after receiving highly diagnostic advice to cease effort. Using survey data from actual inventors, this paper studies the role of overconfidence, optimism, and the sunk‐cost bias in these decisions. We find that inventors are more overconfident and optimistic than the general population. We also find that optimism and past expenditures increased perseverance after being told to quit, while overconfidence in judgment ability had no effect. After being told to quit, optimists spend 166% more than pessimists and those having already spent, for example, $10 000 spend another $10 000. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas

We examine the accuracy of forecasts of the commercial potential of new product ideas by experts at an Inventor's Assistance Program (IAP). Each idea is evaluated in terms of 37 attributes or cues, which are subjectively rated and intuitively combined by an IAP expert to arrive at a forecast of the idea's commercialization prospects. Data regarding actual commercialization outcomes for 559 new product ideas were collected to examine the accuracy of the IAP forecasts. The intensive evaluation of each idea conducted by the IAP produces forecasts that accurately rank order the ideas in terms of their probability of commercialization. The focus of the evaluation process on case‐specific evidence that distinguishes one idea from another, however, and the corresponding neglect of aggregate considerations such as the base rate (BR) and predictability of commercialization for new product ideas in general, yields forecasts that are systematically miscalibrated in terms of their correspondence to the actual probability of commercialization. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cognitive aspects of nonclinical obsessive-compulsive hoarding

Research on the cognitive variables associated with obsessive-compulsive hoarding is scarce. In this study, we investigated cognitive variables that may contribute to the maintenance and possibly etiology of hoarding. College students who characterized themselves as either "packrats" (nonclinical hoarders; n=21) or not (control participants; n=20) completed questionnaires assessing hoarding behavior and beliefs about hoarding, and completed a task requiring them to categorize diverse objects and trinkets of minimal value into groups. The results revealed that nonclinical hoarders, relative to control participants, rated the categorization task as significantly more stressful and difficult. Relative to control participants, hoarders took longer to complete the task and sorted objects into more categories. These findings suggest that underinclusiveness and indecisiveness, characteristic of clinical hoarders, are evident in nonclinical hoarders as well.     

Following the Path to Equality Through Law: Reflections on Baker et al., <Emphasis Type="Italic">Equality: from Theory to Action</Emphasis>

This article assesses the significance of Baker et al., Equality: from Theory to Action from the perspective of current concerns occupying legal equality scholars in the UK, focusing in particular on the practical relevance of equality studies to the kinds of issues arising from the debate over the new Commission for Equality and Human Rights (CEHR). The article highlights and considers key issues, including the delineation of the sphere of inequality protection, the normative content of the concept of equality espoused by law and the potential of law to reach beyond its current limits to embrace the broader dimensions of (in)equality identified in Baker et al.’s account.     

I blush, therefore I will be judged negatively: influence of false blush feedback on anticipated others’ judgments and facial coloration in high and low blushing-fearfuls

In the present study, we investigate whether people attribute costs to displaying a blush. Individuals with and without fear of blushing were invited to have a short conversation with two confederates. During the conversation, half of the individuals received the feedback that they were blushing intensely. The study tested whether the belief that one is blushing leads to the anticipation that one will be judged negatively. In addition, the set-up permitted the actual physiological blush response to be investigated. In line with the model that we propose for erythrophobia, participants in the feedback condition expected the confederates to judge them relatively negatively, independent of their fear of blushing. Furthermore, sustaining the idea that believing that one will blush can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy, high-fearfuls showed relatively intense facial coloration in both conditions, whereas low-fearfuls only showed enhanced blush responses following false blush feedback.     

奖惩对注意缺陷多动障碍儿童情感决策的影响

采用简化版儿童赌博任务,其中操纵了奖励和惩罚的强度,探察两种亚型（注意缺陷型和混合型）ADHD儿童的情感决策能力,同时采集儿童在任务中的皮肤电活动以探析ADHD儿童在情感决策中的生理机制。结果发现,在不同的奖惩强度下,ADHD儿童情感决策模式不同,在即刻奖励条件下,ADHD儿童情感决策的能力明显弱于正常对照组儿童,倾向于不利选择,所产生的预测性皮电振幅也明显低于正常对照组;在即刻惩罚条件下,ADHD儿童的情感决策能力未见异常。两种亚型ADHD儿童的表现模式相似。上述结果证明,ADHD儿童仅存在对奖励的异常敏感性,并确实影响了其决策能力,而其回避惩罚的能力正常。两种亚型ADHD儿童存在的问题相似     

对中学教学中教师运用情感因素的现状调查

针对中学教师在教学中运用情感因素现状的大规模问卷调查,结果表明,重知轻情现象在当前的中学教学中十分普遍,并主要表现在虽有一定认识却鲜于教学实践的状况上,其原因主要是缺乏情感教学方面的理论和方法上的指导,也为一些误解所致,而市区和郊区中学、重点和非重点中学在这方面存在的问题基本一致,不存在明显差异。     

情绪通路异常与认知情绪偏差:慢性痛与抑郁症共病的神经心理机制

慢性疼痛与抑郁症具有高度共病性,但迄今尚无成熟理论能够阐释二者共病的神经心理机制。对慢性痛与抑郁的脑机制研究提示,慢性痛和抑郁常常涉及到相似的情绪脑区活动的异常改变;与此相对应的是,行为学研究发现,疼痛患者与抑郁患者在加工疼痛或抑郁相关信息时表现出了模式相似的认知情绪偏差(CAB)。近年来,越来越多证据趋于一致,指出慢性痛和抑郁共有的情绪通路异常变化可能导致了相似的信息加工异常,是二者共病的神经心理基础,而认知情绪偏差则在行为上反映了这种变化,并且很可能是共病发生、发展及维持的重要因素。     

Older (but not younger) preschoolers understand that knowledge differs between people and across time

We examined 3‐ to 5‐year‐olds' understanding of general knowledge (e.g., knowing that clocks tell time) by investigating whether (1) they recognize that their own general knowledge has changed over time (i.e., they knew less as babies than they know now), and (2) such intraindividual knowledge differences are easier/harder to understand than interindividual differences (i.e., Do preschoolers understand that a baby knows less than they do?). Forty‐eight 3‐ to 5‐year‐olds answered questions about their current general knowledge (‘self‐now’), the general knowledge of a 6‐month‐old (‘baby‐now’), and their own general knowledge at 6 months (‘self‐past’). All age groups were significantly above chance on the self‐now questions, but only 5‐year‐olds were significantly above chance on the self‐past and baby‐now questions. Moreover, children's performance on the baby‐now and self‐past questions did not differ. Our findings suggest that younger preschoolers do not fully appreciate that their past knowledge differs from their current knowledge, and that others may have less knowledge than they do. We situate these findings within the research on knowledge understanding, more specifically, and cognitive development, more broadly.     

Trust and Missed Opportunities in International Relations

With the end of the Cold War, we must wonder whether there were missed opportunities to regulate the arms race and global competition, which nearly bankrupted the United States and contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. A missed opportunity for agreement is a situation where there was at least one alternative that the parties to a conflict preferred or would have preferred to nonagreement. Hard-core Realists argue that states compete for territory, arms, and influence because they have conflicting national interests. Soft-core Realists maintain that such conflicts are effects of international anarchy and uncertainty, and that states can cooperate contingent on reciprocity. I argue that states often fail to cooperate even when they have compatible preferences because policy-makers make incorrect inferences about the opponent's motives and intentions, a process that can be illuminated by social psychology. I present three alternative explanations of trust and distrust in international relations—rational choice, domestic structures, and social psychology. If policy-makers are prudent, they will assess the other's interests in observing an agreement as well as its reputation. Often, domestic political structures encourage leaders to promote distrust of an external enemy to legitimize their internal rule or foreign policy. Finally, distrust may lead policy-makers to dismiss the other side's cooperative signals or proposals. Distrust can be overcome by making a series of step-by-step agreements in which each side can test the other's good faith at limited cost, or through unilateral concessions as part of a consistent policy.