Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation

Multiple scenario analysis is used by many organizations for long-term planning, in part because the development of more than one scenario of the future is thought to prevent overconfidence in any one specific forecast. The present study attempts to clarify some of the questions concerning the cognitive effects of scenario presentation by distinguishing between confidence and subjective uncertainty. It examined the impact of different types of scenario information on confidence ratings, credible intervals, and features of forecast series. Subjects (N=186) read either one, two, or no scenario(s) describing potential changes in the level of a stimulus variable, then made forecasts of that variable over the next fifty years. Reading any type of scenario information increased confidence in forecasts; there was no reduction in confidence due to presentation of multiple conflicting scenarios, compared to presentation of only one scenario. Differences in number and in type of scenarios presented did, however, affect subjective uncertainty.     

Perceptual biases and metacognition and their association with anomalous self experiences in first episode psychosis

Anomalous self-experiences have been described as a prerequisite for anomalous perceptual experiences. Later, these anomalous perceptual experiences may then be metacognitively appraised as distressing, maintaining these experiences and later leading to anomalous (delusional) beliefs. This model of anomalous events may potentially be driven by perceptual biases and metacognitive deficits. This cross-sectional study explored the association between perceptual biases, metacognition and anomalous self- and perceptual experiences and delusional beliefs in First Episode Psychosis (FEP) and a matched healthy control sample. Fifty-eight individuals with FEP and seventy-two healthy controls were included in the main analysis. Increased auditory perceptual biases were significantly associated with increased state and trait anomalous self-experiences, in particular alienation from surroundings and emotional numbing. No significant associations were found between metacognitive efficiency and anomalous experiences. These findings may be consistent with the minimal self-disturbance model of schizophrenia spectrum vulnerability, particularly with the hyperreflexivity concept.     

How (and where) does moral judgment work?

Moral psychology has long focused on reasoning, but recent evidence suggests that moral judgment is more a matter of emotion and affective intuition than deliberate reasoning. Here we discuss recent findings in psychology and cognitive neuroscience, including several studies that specifically investigate moral judgment. These findings indicate the importance of affect, although they allow that reasoning can play a restricted but significant role in moral judgment. They also point towards a preliminary account of the functional neuroanatomy of moral judgment, according to which many brain areas make important contributions to moral judgment although none is devoted specifically to it.     

Global Progress I: Empirical Evidence for ongoing Increase in Quality-of-life

This paper argues that both the relativist and the pessimist critiques of the idea of progress are inadequate. Progress is defined as increase in global quality of life (QOL). Such QOL is intrinsically subjective, but not relative. It can be reliably measured through life satisfaction-type questions. The World Database of Happiness provides extensive data on social, economic and psychological factors that correlate with overall QOL. They include wealth, health, security, knowledge, freedom and equality. Various statistical data suggest that all these QOL indicators have undergone significant improvements during the last half century, in most of the world. This gives strong support to the thesis that progress objectively occurs.     

The Feeling-Tone Questionnaire: Reliability and Validity of a Direct Patient Assessment Screening Instrument for the Detection of Depressive Symptoms in Cases of Dementia

The purpose of this study was to develop a reliable and valid measure of affective disorder in elderly demented patients. The field lacks instruments which are sensitive to detecting depressive signs in severely as well as mildly and moderately demented subjects. Two samples of subjects were chosen for study. The first sample consisted of subjects from six institutions, which were chosen for study from a probability sample of 25 long-term care institutions in New York City. This sample was part of the Cross-National Institutional Study conducted in New York and London (Gurland et al., 1979; Mann et al., 1984). Thirty patients were selected at random within each institution. The second sample consisted of 52 inpatients at Willard Psychiatric Center, a traditional state psychiatric hospital in upstate New York. All subjects had a chart diagnosis of dementia and were 60 years old or older. The mean age of the sample was 82 years and 56% of the subjects were female. The Feeling-Tone Questionnaire, which was developed for these analyses, consists of 16 dichotomous items and 16 5-point Likert ratings of affect. The reliability of this scale using Cronbach's alpha is .91 for the long-term care institutional sample and .90 for the psychiatric hospital sample. Interrater reliability for two raters on ten cases is .99. Test–retest reliability on ten cases with a 1-day to 2-day interval between trials is .81. A short mood scale was developed from the observational data as a validity measure for the Feeling-Tone Questionnaire. Evidence for the validity of the Feeling-Tone Questionnaire is provided.     

Sex Biases in Subject Selection: A Survey of Articles Published in American Medical Journals

This study discusses the results of a survey of 1,800 articles published in American medical journals from 1985--1996. The study finds 9% of these articles reported research that uses only male subjects to examine medical conditions that affect both sexes; the ratio of research on female to male conditions among these articles was greater than 5:1; but 76.5% of the articles reported research that includes both male and female subjects. The study also discusses evidence that sex biases against women (and men) are decreasing. This study also offers some possible psychological, institutional, medical, and economic explanations of the sex biases in medical research published in American journals, and discusses some policy implications of sex biases in medical research. The study concludes by urging others to conduct more empirical research on sex biases in medical research.     

未来取向应对的双阶段序列模型及其时间透视机制

最近的研究表明, 未来取向应对对于应激管理起着不可忽视的重要作用。但预先应对和预防应对的关系及其作用机制, 一直是困扰应对研究者的重要问题。我们的前期工作显示, 序列模型比平行模型能更好地表征预先应对和预防应对的内在关系, 时间透视比威胁知觉更能解释预防应对的前因。本项目首次以时间知觉和内隐态度为切入点, 探索未来取向应对机制的理论模型。研究内容拟包括：(1)以大学生就业为情境, 构建未来取向应对的双阶段序列模型; (2)以大学生入学适应为情境, 用内隐认知充实和验证未来取向应对的序列模型; (3)用时间折扣模型的任务范式, 探讨未来取向应对不同阶段的时间透视机制：(4)用威胁性和中性的阈下面孔作情绪启动, 验证未来取向应对不同阶段的时间透视机制。本研究为发掘预先应对和预防应对的关系及其内在机制, 及基于未来取向应对的干预在心理健康和教育领域的应用奠定了基础。     

Mind,brain and body. Healing trauma: the way forward

The paper explores an interdisciplinary whole person approach to healing from trauma that conserves our rich inheritance from Jung but also takes on board insights from research in the areas of attachment, trauma and the neurobiology of emotion. It is now over 20 years since insights from neurobiology began to be used to inform clinical practice. The paper reviews key insights which have emerged, along with the ways they enable therapists to help mind, brain and body to heal and the ways in which they clarify why, in clinical practice, we do what we do. Traditionally the emphasis has been on words, interpretations, and meaning‐making. Currently there is greater appreciation of the affective, relational, embodied aspects of therapeutic work and the way in which these relate to traumatic early interactive experience that is held outside of human awareness. The ways in which knowledge of particular systems of connectivity inform understanding of the whole mind‐brain‐body relationship are examined. The way forward for clinical practice to become more focused in order to help clients to heal in mind and body is reviewed.     

领导者情感的作用机制：一个跨层的整合观点

领导者情感能够影响下属个体绩效和团队整体绩效, 但作用机制尚不清晰。基于情感事件理论和情绪传染理论, 在个体层面上, 领导者情感通过情绪传染和领导者行为两条路径影响下属情感, 进而影响下属绩效和工作态度。其次在团队层面上, 个体情感通过情绪传染和交叉影响形成团队情感基调, 通过影响团队过程, 进而影响团队绩效。最后, 文章提出领导者情感的跨层整合模型, 并对未来研究方向进行讨论。     

Temporal dynamics of anxiety-related attentional bias: is affective context a missing piece of the puzzle?

Previous research has demonstrated that anxious individuals attend to negative emotional information at the expense of other information. This is commonly referred to as attentional bias. The field has historically conceived of this process as relatively static; however, research by [Zvielli, A., Bernstein, A., &; Koster, E. H. W. (2014). Dynamics of attentional bias to threat in anxious adults: Bias towards and/or away? PLoS ONE, 9(8), e104025; Zvielli, A., Bernstein, A., &; Koster, E. H. W. (2015). Temporal dynamics of attentional bias. Clinical Psychological Science, 3(5), 772–788.], and others, challenges this assumption by demonstrating considerable temporal variability in attentional bias amongst anxious individuals. Still, the mechanisms driving these temporal dynamics are less well known. Using a modified dot-probe task, the present study examined the impact of two relevant contextual variables- affective valence and trial repetition. Affective context was instantiated by the presentation of negative versus neutral pictures before each trial, while repetition context was achieved via the presentation of the valenced pictures in either a blocked- or mixed-trial design. Results indicate that individuals with higher trait-anxiety levels were significantly more influenced by blocked presentations of negative affective information, leading to greater temporal fluctuations in attentional bias. Furthermore, our findings provide additional evidence that attentional bias is best conceptualised as dynamic and variable, and that an individual’s affective experience is one factor that regulates attentional bias dynamics. Implications relating to theoretical and methodological factors are discussed.