计划缺失设计——通过有意缺失让研究更高效

缺失值是社会科学研究中非常普遍的现象。全息极大似然估计和多重插补是目前处理缺失值最有效的方法。计划缺失设计利用特殊的实验设计有意产生缺失值, 再用现代的缺失值处理方法来完成统计分析, 获得无偏的统计结果。计划缺失设计可用于横断面调查减少(或增加)问卷长度和纵向调查减少测量次数, 也可用于提高测量有效性。常用的计划缺失设计有三式设计和两种方法测量。     

适应性记忆：方位记忆的生存优势

采用“间接学习—回忆”实验范式,考查方位记忆的生存优势及生存记忆的性别差异。在电脑屏幕上下左右4个方位随机呈现动物或食物图片,被试相对于中央点对捕获动物或采集食物的难易程度进行评价,然后进行方位回忆测验。实验1和实验2为2（情境：生存情境vs.比赛情境）×2（性别：男vs.女）的被试间设计,发现当狩猎动物或采集食物活动与生存相关时,图片方位回忆的正确率较大;实验3为2（情境：生存狩猎情境vs.生存采集情境）×2（性别：男vs.女）的混合设计,发现不同性别被试在两种生存情境中的图片回忆正确率存在差异。表明方位记忆具有生存优势,生存记忆存在性别差异。     

变长CD-CAT中的曝光控制与终止规则

本研究借鉴传统计算机化自适应测验的思想, 并结合认知诊断的特点, 在认知诊断框架下提出了4种变长CD-CAT的终止规则, 分别是属性标准误法(SEA)、邻近后验概率之差法(DAPP)、二等分法(HA)以及混合法(HM)。在未控制曝光和采用不同曝光控制条件下, 与HSU法及KL法进行了比较。研究结果表明：(1) 终止条件越严格, 平均测验长度越长, 按测验长度最大值终止的测验百分比越大, 模式判准率越高。(2) 当未加入曝光控制时, 4种新的终止规则均有较好表现, 与HSU法十分接近。随着最大后验概率预设值的增加或e的减小, 模式判准率呈上升趋势, 平均测验长度逐渐增加, 但在题库使用率方面均较差。(3) 当加入项目曝光控制时, 6种变长终止规则下的题库使用率有了极大的提升, 仍能保持较高的模式判准率, 并且不同的曝光控制方法对终止规则的影响是不同的。其中, 相对标准终止规则极易受到曝光控制方法的影响。(4) 综合来看, SEA、HM以及HA法在各项指标上的表现与HSU法基本一致, 其次为KL法和DAPP法。     

计算机化多阶段自适应测验研究述评

摘 要 计算机化多阶段自适应测验是基于计算机技术的测验形式,它将题目集合作为测试单元,通过多阶段自适应的形式对被试进行测试和评分。近年来通过研究各种测验形式,发现其比计算机化自适应测验和传统纸笔测验突显出更大优势。与传统纸笔测验相比,其具有参数不变性、能力估计更精确等优势。与计算机化自适应测验相比,其具有可控制题目特性、被试可检查题目等优势。如何减小测量误差,使其应用更加便捷、有效,是未来研究的发展方向。     

不同认知结构被试的测验设计模式

正如不同的病症需要使用不同的医疗技术方法来诊断一样, 不同的认知结构也需要设计对应的测验模式来进行诊断, 从而保证测验具有高质量的诊断评估效果。但传统测验形式未考虑不同认知结构的针对性诊断测验需求, 导致“千人一卷”在测验效率上有所不足; 认知诊断计算机化自适应测验虽可针对不同认知结构的被试施测不同的项目, 然而支持自适应过程的题库却没有针对不同认知结构被试设计对应的项目, 导致题库使用效率较低。要解决上述问题的关键在于, 探索如何针对不同认知结构设计相对应的测验模式。本研究采用Monte Carlo模拟, 对六种属性层级关系下, 不同认知结构的测验设计模式进行探讨。实验结果表明(1)同一属性层级关系下, 不同认知结构的最佳测验设计模式不同; (2)依据不同认知结构的最佳测验设计模式构建的题库具有更高的使用效率。测验编制者可以根据实验结果针对不同认知结构优化对应的测验设计模式, 并用于指导题库建设。     

A sufficient condition for pooling data

We consider the problems arising from using sequences of experiments to discover the causal structure among a set of variables, none of whom are known ahead of time to be an “outcome”. In particular, we present various approaches to resolve conflicts in the experimental results arising from sampling variability in the experiments. We provide a sufficient condition that allows for pooling of data from experiments with different joint distributions over the variables. Satisfaction of the condition allows for an independence test with greater sample size that may resolve some of the conflicts in the experimental results. The pooling condition has its own problems, but should—due to its generality—be informative to techniques for meta-analysis.     

When earning is beneficial for learning: The relation of employment and leisure activities to academic outcomes

The present study investigates the joint effect of the quantity and quality of out-of-school activities (i.e., employment and leisure) on academic outcomes (i.e., well-being, study attitude, and academic performance) among 230 undergraduates. A series of hierarchical regression analyses show that spending too much time in both employment and leisure activities has negative relations with undergraduates’ academic outcomes. Work-study interference fully mediated the effect of time engagement in student employment on students’ reported well-being. These findings support a conflict perspective on multiple role engagement. However, results also show positive effects of activities depending on job demand and autonomy and level of autonomous motivation to engage in these activities. We conclude that out-of-school activities can be beneficial for students’ academic outcomes and preparation for the labor market when perceived as relevant for their academic study and performed in a balanced, autonomous way.     

Developing elementary science skills: Instructional effectiveness and path independence

We explore the immediate and longer term consequences of different types of instruction about a central topic in middle school science: the “Control of Variables Strategy” (CVS). CVS represents the procedural and conceptual basis for designing simple, unconfounded experiments, such that unambiguous causal inferences can be made. CVS appears to be what has been called a “developmentally-secondary” process, because even though infants and pre-schoolers can make simple causal inferences from data, middle school children do poorly at CVS unless they receive instruction on this important topic in the science curriculum. In this study, 72 third, fourth, and fifth-grade students were taught CVS via two instructional methods located at extreme points on the direct-to-discovery spectrum with respect to the amount of guidance, information, support, teacher control, and feedback provided during training. Our design included near- and far-transfer measures (at 1 week, 3 months and 3 years). There were two primary outcomes, both of which replicated and partially extended earlier work by Klahr and Nigam (2004) [Klahr, D., & Nigam, M. (2004). The equivalence of learning paths in early science instruction: Effects of direct instruction and discovery learning. Psychological Science, 15, 661–667] First, at each of the three grade levels, many more children learned CVS in the explicit condition than in the exploration condition. Second, but equally important, what students learned was a better predictor of far transfer than the way that they learned.     

Overcoming the winner's curse: an adaptive learning perspective

The winner's curse phenomenon refers to the fact that the winner in a common value auction, in order to actually win the auction, is likely to have overestimated the item's value and consequently is likely to gain less than expected and may even lose (i.e., it is said to be “cursed”). Past research, using the “Acquiring a company” task has shown that people do not overcome this bias even after they receive extensive feedback. We suggest that the persistence of the winner's curse is due to a combination of two factors: variability in the environment that leads to ambiguous feedback (i.e., choices and outcomes are only partially correlated) and the tendency of decision makers to learn adaptively. We show in an experiment that by reducing the variance in the feedback, performance can be significantly improved. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Designing Urban Experiences. The Case of Zuidas,Amsterdam

Zuidas is a new city centre, which is emerging in the outskirts of Amsterdam. The ambitious project of developing a new international city centre has been carefully planned as the Netherlands has a strong and meticulous tradition for urban planning. The planning has however not only encompassed traditional urban planning aspects such as infrastructure, environmental factors and aesthetics, but has also dealt with the design of urban experiences. Through an introduction of the framework of the structure of experiences, this article examines how urban experiences can be understood and analysed, and deals with how urban experiences can be designed through careful consideration of how experiences are constituted. Taking the psychological structure of experiences into account when designing urbanity is not only interesting, but also highly relevant as Zuidas is competing with other international venues such as La Défense, the Docklands and Potsdamer Platz.