类别变量的中介效应分析

在心理学和其他社科研究领域,研究者能熟练地进行连续变量的中介效应分析,但面对自变量、中介变量或(和)因变量为类别变量的中介效应分析,研究者往往束手无策。在阐述类别自变量中介分析方法的基础上,我们建议使用整体和相对中介相结合的类别自变量中介分析方法,并给出了分析流程。以二分因变量为例,讨论了中介变量或(和)因变量为类别变量的中介分析方法的发展过程(即尺度统一的过程),建议通过检验Za×Zb的显著性来判断中介效应的显著性。用二个实际例子演示如何进行类别变量的中介效应分析。最后展望了类别变量的中介效应分析研究的拓展方向。     

基于多层结构方程模型的情境效应分析—— 兼与多层线性模型比较

多层(嵌套)数据的变量关系研究, 必须借助多层模型来实现。两层模型中, 层一自变量Xij按组均值中心化, 并将组均值 置于层2截距方程式中, 可将Xij对因变量Yij的效应分解为组间和组内部分, 二者之差被称为情境效应, 称为情境变量。多层结构方程模型(MSEM)将多层线性模型(MLM)和结构方程模型(SEM)相结合, 通过设置潜变量和多指标的方法校正了MLM在情境效应分析中出现的抽样误差和测量误差, 同时解决了数据的多层(嵌套)结构和潜变量的估计问题。除了分析原理的说明, 还以班级平均竞争氛围对学生竞争表现的情境效应为例进行分析方法的示范, 并比较MSEM和MLM的异同, 随后展望了MSEM情境效应模型、情境效应无偏估计方法和情境变量研究的拓展方向。     

Lessons learned from pedestrian-driver communication and yielding patterns

Understanding the hidden patterns of tacit communication between drivers and pedestrians is crucial for improving pedestrian safety. However, this type of communication is a result of the psychological processes of both pedestrians and drivers, which are very difficult to understand thoroughly. This study utilizes a naturalistic field study dataset and explores the hidden patterns from successful and failed communication events using a pattern recognition method known as Taxicab Correspondence Analysis (TCA). The successful communication scenarios indicate the combinations of variable attributes such as eye contact, facial expression, the assertion of crossing, and effective traffic control devices are strongly associated with successful scenarios. The patterns for failed scenarios are most likely to be on the roadway with a relatively higher speed limit (e.g., 35 mph) and a relatively lower speed limit (e.g., 15 mph) under different conditions. On roadways with a higher speed limit, the failed scenarios are highly associated with passive and undecisive pedestrians, pedestrians far away from the crosswalk, regardless of pedestrian-driver eye contact and facial expression of the pedestrians. Instead of waiting for pedestrians to making a crossing decision, overspeeding drivers are more likely to speed up and pass the crosswalk. On roadways with a lower speed limit, the failed scenarios are often associated with distracted pedestrians, vehicles having the right of way, and the absence of effective traffic control devices. These findings could help transportation agencies identify appropriate countermeasures to reduce pedestrian crashes. The findings on driver-pedestrian communication patterns could provide scopes for improvement in computer vision-based algorithms designed for autonomous vehicle industries.     

存在问题的逻辑语言维度

存在问题在分析哲学的背景下取得了深入细致的研究成果。在“何谓存在”问题上,围绕“存在”是不是个体的属性从而是不是逻辑谓词的争论呈现出三派观点:弗雷格、罗素等从一阶逻辑出发,认为“存在”不是逻辑谓词,而是量词;皮尔士、斯特劳森等结合精致的自然语言分析,认为“存在”在某些特殊情况下表达了个体的属性,是一种特殊的谓词;自由逻辑学家则从自由逻辑的角度给出了肯定的答案。在“何物存在”问题上,蒯因“存在就是约束变项的值”的本体论承诺标准机智地揭示了存在问题的语言学实质。可以说,利用一阶逻辑解释存在问题的方法是比较成功的。如果将弗雷格、罗素的一阶语言扩展到高阶语言,则既能与蒯因的理论连贯一致,又能避免无谓的“存在”本体论纷争。这种做法的结果是“存在”具有了层次性的特征。掌握一定的逻辑学基础知识,有助于我们深入研究西方哲学。     

Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Population Distribution Using Spline-Based Densities

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method for fitting item response theory models with the latent population distribution estimated from the data using splines. A spline-based density estimation system provides a flexible alternative to existing procedures that use a normal distribution, or a different functional form, for the population distribution. A simulation study shows that the new procedure is feasible in practice, and that when the latent distribution is not well approximated as normal, two-parameter logistic (2PL) item parameter estimates and expected a posteriori scores (EAPs) can be improved over what they would be with the normal model. An example with real data compares the new method and the extant empirical histogram approach.     

Poverty Among Adults with Disabilities: Barriers to Promoting Asset Accumulation in Individual Development Accounts

Adults with disabilities disproportionally experience poverty. We examine one novel strategy to promote economic well-being among adults with disabilities living in or near poverty, namely Individual Development Accounts (IDAs). IDAs are designed to help individuals save money and subsequently accumulate assets. Although adults with disabilities account for the majority of IDA participants, scant attention has been paid to their IDA saving performance. We describe the significance of accumulating assets, particularly as it relates to adults with disabilities. We then map the nature of IDA programs and analyze barriers to participation in IDAs and asset accumulation related to conflicting federal policies and a lack of sensitivity to disability-specific needs. We conclude by offering policy recommendations from our analysis, including the need to eliminate the means-tests used in welfare policies, de-linking participation in IDAs from employment status, and involving people with disabilities in designing and evaluating asset accumulation policies and programs.     

Shopping destination choice in Tehran: An integrated choice and latent variable approach

Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) models are increasingly considered in many fields as a means to gain a deeper understanding into the decision process of individuals as well as to potentially improve predictive ability. Literature has shown that the application of ICLV in context of shopping destination choice has not been conducted yet. This study uses data collected from the city of Tehran, Iran on shopping destination choice of 812 individuals. Then these attitudinal questions are used for the development of latent variables regarding the attitude and lifestyle of the participants. By including one latent variable (LV) reflecting the attitudes of clothing and lifestyle’s of grocery travelers the structural model reveals a sample distribution of this LV conditional on fundamental socio-economic characteristics. The results of our latent variable model clearly confirm that personal attitude toward clothing shopping center and lifestyle indeed impact destination choice. The results show that our experiment and the expanded hybrid choice model (HCM) allow appropriately identifying and investigating the effects of mixtures of latent attitudes on the intention shopping destination choice.     

Brains,brawn, and beauty: The complementary roles of intelligence and physical aggression in attracting sexual partners

The current study compared physical aggression to factors affecting socioeconomic status in the accumulation of sex partners over the life course. Our data sample was drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (men, n = 5,636; women, n = 6,787). Participants were examined in terms of the number of lifetime sex partners they reported, nonrelationship partners, cheating or infidelity, and concurrent relationships. Intelligence and physical violence emerged as being especially likely to boost sex partner accumulation for the number of lifetime sex partners and nonrelationship partners in men. Intelligence also interacted positively with men's violence in cross‐sectional models but not longitudinally. Women's violence was not significant regardless of the outcome or model specification. Intelligence showed less consistent effects for women's mating indicators compared to men. Analyses controlled for well‐known correlates of aggression and sexual behavior and factors associated with beauty, including interviewer reports of survey participants' physical attractiveness and maturity, as well as self‐reported attractiveness, maturity, and health. Findings are consistent with evolutionary ideas regarding costly signaling as an effective mating strategy among men.