‘Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!’: Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task

Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the “gambler's fallacy.” In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial‐by‐trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial‐by‐trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures (“post‐decision wagering”) as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Why Me? Why Not Me?

The decision to undergo BRCA testing is very complex and emotionally laden. This decision can be further complicated by the loss of a mother at an early age. The following personal account by a genetic counselor discusses the testing process and the struggle to accept the results and reframe one’s self-identity. The sensitive nature of this testing and the implications for other family members is explored.     

Moderate versus light pressure massage therapy leads to greater weight gain in preterm infants

Sixty-eight preterm infants (M GA = 30 weeks) were randomly assigned to a moderate or to a light pressure massage therapy group to receive 15 massages three times per day for 5 days. Behavior state, stress behaviors and heart rate were recorded for 15 min before and during the first 15-min therapy session. Weight gain was recorded over the 5-day therapy period. The moderate versus light pressure massage group gained significantly more weight per day. During the behavior observations the moderate versus light pressure massage group showed significantly lower increases from the pre-session to the session recording on: (1) active sleep; (2) fussing; (3) crying; (4) movement; and (5) stress behavior (hiccupping). They also showed a smaller decrease in deep sleep, a greater decrease in heart rate and a greater increase in vagal tone. Thus, the moderate pressure massage therapy group appeared to be more relaxed and less aroused than the light pressure massage group which may have contributed to the greater weight gain of the moderate pressure massage therapy group.     

Stimulus disparity and punisher control of human signal-detection performance

The present experiment examined the effects of varying stimulus disparity and relative punisher frequencies on signal detection by humans. Participants were placed into one of two groups. Group 3 participants were presented with 1:3 and 3:1 punisher frequency ratios, while Group 11 participants were presented with 1:11 and 11:1 punisher frequency ratios. For both groups, stimulus disparity was varied across three levels (low, medium, high) for each punisher ratio. In all conditions, correct responses were intermittently reinforced (1:1 reinforcer frequency ratio). Participants were mostly biased away from the more punished alternative, with more extreme response biases found for Group 11 participants compared to Group 3. For both groups, estimates of discriminability increased systematically across the three disparity levels and were unaffected by the punisher ratios. Likewise, estimates of response bias and sensitivity to the punisher ratios were unaffected by changes in discriminability, supporting the assumption of parameter invariance in the Davison and Tustin (1978) model of signal detection. Overall, the present experiment found no relation between stimulus control and punisher control, and provided further evidence for similar but opposite effects of punishers to reinforcers in signal-detection procedures.     

Evolution and relationship maintenance: Fertility cues lead committed men to devalue relationship alternatives

An evolutionary perspective provides a conceptual framework with which to study adaptive processes that facilitate the maintenance of long-term relationships. One common relationship threat people face involves exposure to tempting relationship alternatives. Desirable relationship alternatives can threaten people's relationship commitment and, consequently, evoke relationship maintenance processes designed to protect people's relationship esteem. The current research examined whether cues of female ovulation–an important reproductive variable–evokes relationship maintenance processes in committed men. Men rated the attractiveness of a normally cycling relationship alternative at various points in her menstrual cycle. Unlike single men, who rated the woman as especially attractive when she was highly fertile, committed men exhibited the opposite pattern, rating her as less attractive during her period of peak fertility. This research illustrates the utility of integrating theories of relationship maintenance with evolutionary psychological theories of mating.     

Immediate and Latent Interlimb Transfer of Gait Stability Adaptation Following Repeated Exposure to Slips

The authors trained 21 participants by using blocked-and-mixed exposure to right-side slips and then caused them to slip unexpectedly on the untrained left side. Authors retested participants with a right slip and a left slip at 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, and 4 months. The authors found that preslip stability on the first untrained left slip improved and was significantly greater than that on the first right slip, which probably contributed to the reduction in incidence of falls from ~30% to ~10%. Postslip stability and base of support (BOS) slip velocity were similar to those on the first right slip and much lower than those on the last right slip. Increases in pre- and postslip stabilities and BOS slip velocity during the left slip led to reductions in backward balance loss (BLOB) from ~95% on initial left slip to ~60% and to ~25% on the 1st and 3rd retest sessions, respectively. In contrast, BLOB remained at a constant ~40% level on the right slip of the same retest sessions. The results indicate a partial immediate transfer and a possible latent transfer.     

Behavioral Skills Training With Teachers: Booster Training for Improved Maintenance

Behavioral skills training (BST) has been employed within many different populations for the reduction of problem behaviors and acquisition of new skills; however, these changes have not always maintained over time. This study evaluated the effects of a booster training for re-establishing the classroom management proficiencies that teachers had acquired previously, but had declined over a 12-month period. The single-subject experimental results showed the booster training to be effective in re-establishing teacher performance of skills as measured by both analogue role-play and in situ postassessments within the classroom. These findings suggest that a booster training utilizing BST may be an important strategy for maintaining skill performance over time.     

The mathematical abilities of children with cochlear implants

Research has shown that cochlear implants give rise to improvements in speech recognition and production in children with profound hearing loss but very few studies have explored mathematical abilities in these children. The current study compared the mathematical abilities of 24 children with cochlear implants (mean age 10 years 1 month) to a control group of 22 hearing children (mean age 9 years 8 months). The math questions were categorized into questions that tapped into arithmetic or geometrical reasoning. It was predicted that the cochlear implant group would perform below the hearing group on the arithmetic questions but not the geometrical reasoning questions. Unexpectedly, the results showed that the cochlear implant group performed significantly below the hearing group on both types of math questions, but that this difference was mediated by language skill as assessed by vocabulary knowledge. The clinical implications of these results and possible future research results are considered.     

Infant temperament and maternal parenting self-efficacy predict child weight outcomes

Relationships between infant negative reactivity and self-regulation, parenting self-efficacy, and child weight outcomes were examined. Greater observed negative reactivity predicted more child weight gain when mothers had lower parenting self-efficacy. Lower mother-reported self-regulation predicted a greater child weight status. Results highlight potential early risk/protective factors.