Aggregation of opinions based on correlated cues and advisors

We study the process by which decision makers (DMs) aggregate probabilistic opinions from multiple, correlated sources with a special emphasis on the determinants of the DM's confidence, which is a predictor of the DM's willingness to accept the implications of the aggregation process. Our model assumes that (a) DM combines the advisors' opinions by weighting them according to the amount of information underlying them, and (b) the DM's confidence increases as a function of a variety of factors that reduce the variance of the aggregate. We report results of three studies that manipulate the predictive validity of the cues and their inter‐correlations. Most of the models' predictions are supported but, contrary to the model's prediction, the DMs' confidence is not sensitive to the inter‐cue correlation. The best predictors of the DMs' confidence are the perceived predictability of the event, the level of agreement among the advisors, and the advisors' self‐reports of confidence. This pattern of results is explained by the ‘system neglect’ hypothesis. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Own-other differences in the realism of some metacognitive judgments

The present study investigated differences in judgments of one's own and others' knowledge (the own-other difference). Consistent with the below-average effect (e.g., Kruger, 1999), our main results showed that the participants gave lower knowledge ratings of their own extent of knowledge than of another person's extent of knowledge (Experiment 1). Furthermore, lower and more realistic judgments were found when the participants judged their own as compared with when judging another person's overall accuracy (frequency judgments) of answering knowledge questions correctly (Experiment 1 and 2). On the basis of these results it is argued that judgmental anchoring may be important also in the context of indirect comparisons, and that previous conclusions of cross-cultural psychology regarding the above-average effect may be oversimplified.     

Problem-Solving in the Nursing Home Environment: Age and Experience Differences in Emotional Reactions and Responses

This study examined age differences in the perception of problems occurring in a nursing home. A predominantly female sample (N = 120) varying in age and in exposure to nursing homes watched videotaped vignettes depicting a woman experiencing problems in a nursing home. For each vignette, research participants reported how they thought the protagonist felt, how she should respond, and how confident they would feel to respond similarly if faced with the same situation. Age, more than experience, was related to differences in perceptions, with older adults reporting that the protagonist felt sad more often than did younger adults, who perceived the protagonist as feeling angry. Younger age was associated with more action-oriented coping strategies. No age differences emerged for how well the participants felt they could handle the situation. Results suggest that nursing home employees differ from the residents in both their perceptions of the problems and recommended strategies used to deal with the problem.     

个体自信度对双人决策的影响

群体决策是重要的社会现象, 个体自信度在群体决策中发挥了重要作用。本文开展了不同难度和信息交流方式下的双人决策实验, 通过分析自信度和个体决策以及决策调整行为的关系, 研究了个体自信度的交流对双人决策的影响。实验结果表明, 个体的自信度与选择的正确率高度正相关; 双人决策过程是个体根据对方的自信度和选择来不断调整自己的选择最终达成一致的过程, 并通过交互过程提高双人决策的正确率; 实验中双人决策的质量明显优于“自信度分享模型”和“更自信者主导决策模型”的预期结果, 表明群体决策不是通过分享自信度进行的贝叶斯优化整合过程, 也不是由更自信的个体完全主导的过程。     

Rank‐based permutation approaches for non‐parametric factorial designs

Inference methods for null hypotheses formulated in terms of distribution functions in general non‐parametric factorial designs are studied. The methods can be applied to continuous, ordinal or even ordered categorical data in a unified way, and are based only on ranks. In this set‐up Wald‐type statistics and ANOVA‐type statistics are the current state of the art. The first method is asymptotically exact but a rather liberal statistical testing procedure for small to moderate sample size, while the latter is only an approximation which does not possess the correct asymptotic α level under the null. To bridge these gaps, a novel permutation approach is proposed which can be seen as a flexible generalization of the Kruskal–Wallis test to all kinds of factorial designs with independent observations. It is proven that the permutation principle is asymptotically correct while keeping its finite exactness property when data are exchangeable. The results of extensive simulation studies foster these theoretical findings. A real data set exemplifies its applicability.     

Psychosocial correlates of parenting stress, lack of support and lack of confidence/security

The purpose of the current study was to identify important correlates of parenting stress, frequently conceptualized as a mediator of suboptimal family function, and of social support and confidence/security, often regarded as buffers. Potential correlates of these concepts were assessed in questionnaires at delivery and at one year, in a sample of 16,000 families in Sweden. Predictors (1) of parenting stress were parental dissatisfaction and poor child sleeping patterns; (2) of lack of support included lack of confidence/security, parents born abroad, single motherhood, and maternal health problems; and (3) of lack of confidence/security were lack of support and serious life events. Mothers lacking social support or confidence/security exhibited significantly higher stress. Although parenting stress is a complex phenomenon certain risk factors can be emphasized, such as sleep problems which appear more important than child health problems. These risk factors can be used both in efforts to prevent stress and in studies of stress effects.     

Effects of differences in interreinforcer intervals between past and current schedules on fixed-interval responding

Undergraduates were exposed to a mixed fixed-ratio differential-reinforcement-of-low-rate schedule. Values of the schedule components were adjusted so that interreinforcer intervals in one component were longer than those in another component. Following this, a mixed fixed-interval 5-s fixed-interval 20-s schedule (Experiment 1) or six fixed-interval schedules in which the values ranged from 5 to 40 s (Experiment 2) were in effect. In both experiments, response rates under the fixed-interval schedules were higher when the interreinforcer intervals approximated those produced under the fixed-ratio schedule, whereas the rates were lower when the interreinforcer intervals approximated those produced under the different-reinforcement-of-low-rate schedule. The present results demonstrate that the effects of behavioral history were under control of the interreinforcer intervals as discriminative stimuli.     

学生提取自信度判断准确性的发展

采用3×3×2(年龄,材料,性别)三因素混合实验设计,按照学习成绩好、中、差分层随机选取小二、初二、大二学生被试各18名,其中男女各半,利用不同难度的材料,对被试提取自信度准确性的发展进行了考察。被试的判断等级与被试的记忆成绩之间的两点距随年龄而变化。而这种变化在不同难度间有不同的表现。(1)提取自信度准确性从小二到初二发展迅速,表现出显著差异;初二到大二阶段年龄差异不显著。材料难度对不同年级的被试提取自信度判断准确性的影响不同。材料难度越小,提取自信度准确性发展得越早。(2)提取自信度准确性发展的性别差异不显著。     

Extracting a maximum of useful information from statistical research data

The practice of statistical inference in psychological research is critically reviewed. Particular emphasis is put on the fast pace of change from the sole reliance on null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) to the inclusion of effect size estimates, confidence intervals, and an interest in the Bayesian approach. We conclude that these developments are helpful for psychologists seeking to extract a maximum of useful information from statistical research data, and that seven decades of criticism against NHST is finally having an effect.     

“先扬后抑”vs.“先抑后扬”:反馈顺序对决策信心建构的影响

本研究采用2×3被试内设计,通过操纵不同性质信息的反馈比例和反馈顺序,重点考察了反馈顺序对决策信心动态建构的影响。结果表明:(1)在不同反馈比例条件下,当个体接收到的正性反馈多于负性反馈时,个体的决策信心上升,反之则下降;当个体接收到的正性反馈等于负性反馈时,个体的决策信心下降,表现出"负性偏向";(2)"先扬后抑"与"先抑后扬"的信息反馈顺序对决策信心的动态建构产生了不同影响,表现出类似于"近因效应"的现象,"惊讶假设(surprise hypothesis)"可为此提供解释。本研究表明,在决策信心的动态建构过程中,信息的反馈顺序发挥着重要作用。