The dynamics of Orthodox and Muslim religiosity in Russia, 1989–2012

In this article I focus on the changing religious consciousness and behaviour of Orthodox Christians in Russia over the period from 1989 to 2012, comparing these where appropriate with the situation among Muslims. In the first part of the article I identify three periods in the development of attitudes to religion between 1989 and 2011: from 1989 to the mid-1990s; from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s; and from the mid-2000s to 2011. In the second part I survey attitudes to religion among the Russian population from 2011 from a range of perspectives. In the third part I look in more detail at the religious practice of Russians from 2011, using the concept of votserkovlennost’ (‘enchurchedness’) as developed by the sociologist Valentina Chesnokova. My data are derived from public opinion surveys, particularly surveys conducted in 2006, 2011 and 2012.     

A threshold theory account of psychometric functions with response confidence under the balance condition

The study of thresholds for discriminability has been of long‐standing interest in psychophysics. While threshold theories embrace the concept of discrete‐state thresholds, signal detection theory discounts such a concept. In this paper we concern ourselves with the concept of thresholds from the discrete‐state modelling viewpoint. In doing so, we find it necessary to clarify some fundamental issues germane to the psychometric function (PF), which is customarily constructed using psychophysical methods with a binary‐response format. We challenge this response format and argue that response confidence also plays an important role in the construction of PFs, and thus should have some impact on threshold estimation. We motivate the discussion by adopting a three‐state threshold theory for response confidence proposed by Krantz (1969, Psychol. Rev., 76, 308–324), which is a modification of Luce's (1963, Psychol. Rev., 70, 61–79) low‐threshold theory. In particular, we discuss the case in which the practice of averaging over order (or position) is enforced in data collection. Finally, we illustrate the fit of the Luce–Krantz model to data from a line‐discrimination task with response confidence.     

Age-related similarities and differences in monitoring spatial cognition

Spatial cognitive performance is impaired in later adulthood but it is unclear whether the metacognitive processes involved in monitoring spatial cognitive performance are also compromised. Inaccurate monitoring could affect whether people choose to engage in tasks that require spatial thinking and also the strategies they use in spatial domains such as navigation. The current experiment examined potential age differences in monitoring spatial cognitive performance in a variety of spatial domains including visual–spatial working memory, spatial orientation, spatial visualization, navigation, and place learning. Younger and older adults completed a 2D mental rotation test, 3D mental rotation test, paper folding test, spatial memory span test, two virtual navigation tasks, and a cognitive mapping test. Participants also made metacognitive judgments of performance (confidence judgments, judgments of learning, or navigation time estimates) on each trial for all spatial tasks. Preference for allocentric or egocentric navigation strategies was also measured. Overall, performance was poorer and confidence in performance was lower for older adults than younger adults. In most spatial domains, the absolute and relative accuracy of metacognitive judgments was equivalent for both age groups. However, age differences in monitoring accuracy (specifically relative accuracy) emerged in spatial tasks involving navigation. Confidence in navigating for a target location also mediated age differences in allocentric navigation strategy use. These findings suggest that with the possible exception of navigation monitoring, spatial cognition may be spared from age-related decline even though spatial cognition itself is impaired in older age.     

认知诊断模型的比较及其应用研究：饱和模型、简化模型还是混合方法？

GDINA是一个饱和认知诊断模型（Cognitive Diagnosis Models, CDM）,Wald检验被用于在题目水平上检验GDINA是否可以被简化模型（如DINA, DINO, ACDM和RRUM）替代,并为测验的每一个题目选择一个最恰当的CDM（简称混合CDM）。选择合适的CDM是进行诊断评估的一个关键步骤,通过Monte Carlo 模拟实验,比较了不同的测验情境下,GDINA、简化CDM和混合CDM在测验整体拟合指标、模式判准率和项目参数估计的返真性等效果,研究发现混合模型的整体表现是最好的,其次是GDINA,最后是简化CDM。     

Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors*

Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors – the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.     

Poor peer work does not boost student confidence

Students' low confidence, particularly in numerical topics, is thought to be a barrier to keeping them engaged with education. We studied the effects on confidence of exposure to a peer's work of varying quality (very good or bad) and neatness (messy or neat). Previous research underpinned our hypothesis that a peer's bad-quality work—which students rarely see—might boost student confidence more than very good work. We also predicted that a peer's very good work—which students are often shown—might be less discouraging if it were messy, suggesting it required effort and struggle. However, in experiments with university students and low-educated adults, these hypotheses were not supported, and all participants decreased in confidence after seeing any peer work. The failure to find support for these hypotheses can inform future research into social comparison effects on self-confidence in numerical topics. These results also have practical implications for teachers and managers who are expected to provide examples of peer work.     

Bootstrap confidence intervals for principal covariates regression

Principal covariate regression (PCOVR) is a method for regressing a set of criterion variables with respect to a set of predictor variables when the latter are many in number and/or collinear. This is done by extracting a limited number of components that simultaneously synthesize the predictor variables and predict the criterion ones. So far, no procedure has been offered for estimating statistical uncertainties of the obtained PCOVR parameter estimates. The present paper shows how this goal can be achieved, conditionally on the model specification, by means of the bootstrap approach. Four strategies for estimating bootstrap confidence intervals are derived and their statistical behaviour in terms of coverage is assessed by means of a simulation experiment. Such strategies are distinguished by the use of the varimax and quartimin procedures and by the use of Procrustes rotations of bootstrap solutions towards the sample solution. In general, the four strategies showed appropriate statistical behaviour, with coverage tending to the desired level for increasing sample sizes. The main exception involved strategies based on the quartimin procedure in cases characterized by complex underlying structures of the components. The appropriateness of the statistical behaviour was higher when the proper number of components were extracted.     

Preference as a function of active interresponse times: a test of the active time model

In this article, we describe a test of the active time model for concurrent variable interval (VI) choice. The active time model (ATM) suggests that the time since the most recent response is one of the variables controlling choice in concurrent VI VI schedules of reinforcement. In our experiment, pigeons were trained in a multiple concurrent similar to that employed by Belke (1992), with VI 20-s and VI 40-s schedules in one component, and VI 40-s and VI 80-s schedules in the other component. However, rather than use a free-operant design, we used a discrete-trial procedure that restricted interresponse times to a range of 0.5-9.0 s. After 45 sessions of training, unreinforced probe periods were mixed with reinforced training periods. These probes paired the two stimuli associated with the VI 40-s schedules. Further, the probes were defined such that during their occurrence, interresponse times were either "short" (0.5-3.0 s) or "long" (7.5-9.0 s). All pigeons showed a preference for the stimulus associated with the relatively rich VI 40-s schedule--a result mirroring that of Belke. We also observed, though, that this preference was more extreme during long probes than during short probes--a result predicted by ATM.     

Career Preparation: A Longitudinal, Process-Oriented Examination

Preparing for an adult career through careful planning, choosing a career, and gaining confidence to achieve career goals is a primary task during adolescence and early adulthood. The current study bridged identity process literature and career construction theory (Savickas, 2005) by examining the commitment component of career adaptability, career preparation (i.e., career planning, career decision-making, and career confidence), from an identity process perspective (Luyckx, Goossens, & Soenens, 2006). Research has suggested that career preparation dimensions are interrelated during adolescence and early adulthood; however, what remains to be known is how each dimension changes over time and the interrelationships among the dimensions during the transition from high school. Drawing parallels between career preparation and identity development dimensions, the current study addressed these questions by examining the patterns of change in each career preparation dimension and parallel process models that tested associations among the slopes and intercepts of the career preparation dimensions. Results showed that the career preparation dimensions were not developing similarly over time, although each dimension was associated cross-sectionally and longitudinally with the other dimensions. Results also suggested that career planning and decision-making preceded career confidence. The results of the current study supported career construction theory and showed similarities between the processes of career preparation and identity development.