认知诊断模型的标准误与置信区间估计：并行自助法

认知诊断模型的标准误(Standard Error, SE; 或方差—协方差矩阵)与置信区间(Confidence Interval, CI)在模型参数估计不确定性的度量、项目功能差异检验、项目水平上的模型比较、Q矩阵检验以及探索属性层级关系等领域有重要的理论与实践价值。本研究提出了两种新的SE和CI计算方法：并行参数化自助法和并行非参数化自助法。模拟研究发现：模型完全正确设定时, 在高质量及中等质量项目条件下, 这两种方法在计算模型参数的SE和CI时均有好的表现; 模型参数存在冗余时, 在高质量及中等质量项目条件下, 对于大部分允许存在的模型参数而言, 其SE和CI有好的表现。通过实证数据展示了新方法的价值及计算效率提升效果。     

测验同质性系数及其区间估计

在决定将多维测验分数合并成测验总分时, 应当考虑测验同质性。如果同质性太低, 合成总分没有什么意义。同质性高低可以用同质性系数来衡量。用来计算同质性系数的模型是近年来受到关注的双因子模型(既有全局因子又有局部因子), 测验的同质性系数定义为测验分数方差中全局因子分数方差所占的比例。本文用Delta法推导出计算同质性系数的标准误公式, 进而计算其置信区间。提供了简单的计算同质性系数及其置信区间的程序。用一个例子说明如何估计同质性系数及其置信区间, 通过模拟比较了用Delta法和用Bootstrap法计算的置信区间, 发现两者差异很小。     

α系数的区间估计方法比较

多数情况下,α系数可以用来评价测验信度。诸多研究建议,在报告测验信度的时候应当包括其置信区间。通过蒙特卡洛模拟研究,比较了7种α系数区间估计方法,包括Fisher法、Bonett-02法、Bonett-10法、精确Koning-Franses法、渐近ID法、渐近Koning-Franses法和ADF法。结果发现Bonett-10法和精确Koning-Franses法较好,它们的结果相差很小。这两种方法都比较简单,只需要样本的α值、测验题数、被试人数及F临界值,通过简单的运算便可得到α系数的置信区间。     

国外关于自信的研究综述

近些年来自信研究已受到越来越多的心理学家的关注。文章对国外30多年来自信的理论和实证研究进行了系统综述,从概念和结构上阐述了国外自信研究的历史和现状,并从自信的差异研究、两极与反面研究以及影响因素3方面总结了具体研究领域的最新进展。在此基础上,指出了自信研究领域存在的问题和将来的研究方向。     

Career Preparation: A Longitudinal, Process-Oriented Examination

Preparing for an adult career through careful planning, choosing a career, and gaining confidence to achieve career goals is a primary task during adolescence and early adulthood. The current study bridged identity process literature and career construction theory (Savickas, 2005) by examining the commitment component of career adaptability, career preparation (i.e., career planning, career decision-making, and career confidence), from an identity process perspective (Luyckx, Goossens, & Soenens, 2006). Research has suggested that career preparation dimensions are interrelated during adolescence and early adulthood; however, what remains to be known is how each dimension changes over time and the interrelationships among the dimensions during the transition from high school. Drawing parallels between career preparation and identity development dimensions, the current study addressed these questions by examining the patterns of change in each career preparation dimension and parallel process models that tested associations among the slopes and intercepts of the career preparation dimensions. Results showed that the career preparation dimensions were not developing similarly over time, although each dimension was associated cross-sectionally and longitudinally with the other dimensions. Results also suggested that career planning and decision-making preceded career confidence. The results of the current study supported career construction theory and showed similarities between the processes of career preparation and identity development.     

Child witnesses' metamemory realism

This study investigated the degree of realism in the confidence judgments of 11 to 12-year-olds (41 girls and 40 boys) of their answers to questions relating to a short film clip showing a kidnapping event. Four different confidence scales were used: a numeric scale, a picture scale, a line scale and a written scale. The results demonstrated that the children showed a high level of overconfidence in their memories. However, no significant differences between the four confidence scales were found. Weak gender differences were found in that the girls were slightly, but significantly, better calibrated than the boys. In addition, although both boys and girls overestimated the total number of memory questions they had answered correctly, the boys gave higher estimates compared with the girls. In brief, the results indicate that, at least in the context investigated, 11-12 year-old children's confidence in and estimations of their own event memory show poor realism (overconfidence and overestimation). A comparison with previous research on adults indicates that 11 to 12-year-old children show noticeably poorer realism.     

On the analysis of studies of choice

In a review of 103 sets of data from 23 different studies of choice, Baum (1979) concluded that whereas undermatching was most commonly observed for responses, the time measure generally conformed to the matching relation. A reexamination of the evidence presented by Baum concludes that undermatching is the most commonly observed finding for both measures. Use of the coefficient of determination by both Baum (1979) and de Villiers (1977) for assessing when matching occurs is criticized on statistical grounds. An alternative to the loss-in-predictability criterion used by Baum (1979) is proposed. This alternative statistic has a simple operational meaning and is related to the usual F-ratio test. It can therefore be used as a formal test of the hypothesis that matching occurs. Baum (1979) also suggests that slope values of between .90 and 1.11 can be considered good approximations to matching. It is argued that the establishment of a fixed interval as a criterion for determining when matching occurs, is inappropriate. A confidence interval based on the data from any given experiment is suggested as a more useful method of assessment.     

决策信心在信息化从众中的作用

研究采用JAS范式,通过操纵群体信息的性质（支持和反对）以及一致性程度,考察了决策信心在信息化从众过程中的作用。结果表明：（1）个体仅在接收到反对信息时会发生决策的偏转,表现出从众;（2）群体参照信息能够显著影响个体的信心：支持性的群体信息使个体的信心显著增高,而反对性的群体信息使信心显著降低,且表现出一种“负性偏向”（即个体对来自群体的负性信息更加敏感）;（3）在反对条件下,个体信心降低的程度能够很好地预测其决策偏转的概率,即信息化从众行为。这说明,决策信心可能在信息化从众中起着核心的中介作用——反对性的群体信息使得决策信心下降,而决策信心的下降导致了决策的偏转,从而表现出从众行为。     

决策信心的认知机制与神经基础

决策信心是指在进行判断或决策时, 个体对其决策最优性或正确性的信心程度。决策信心的单过程理论认为决策与信心评估是并行的同一加工过程; 而决策后理论认为决策和信心评估是串行的两个加工过程。决策信心存在两种典型的偏差效应：过分自信和信心不足。决策信心的神经机制研究指出, 信心评估可能是决策过程中最基本并且普遍存在的一个成分; 对决策信心评估敏感的脑区包括扣带回、背外侧前额叶和顶上小叶等。未来研究应该在决策信心产生的机制、信心与决策如何交互的心理及神经机制等领域展开大量研究。