Towards a new approach to predict business performance using machine learning

Financial ratio plays a crucial role in business performance prediction, but the ability of the decision maker to use this method in adjusting management strategy has been extensively ignored. In this paper we attempt to build a fuzzy chance constrained least squares twin support vector machine (FCC-LSTSVM) to predict the business performance through the financial ratios. Specifically, machine learning techniques are utilized to build the models and 796 listed companies in China are selected as the data set. We find that different efficiencies are performed for different models with the same industry and different effectiveness are shown for different predicting time periods with the same method. In addition, the predicting achievements of business performance depend on the types of industries. This paper has extent significance both in theoretical development and managerial practices.     

Social learning under the labeling effect: Exploring travellers’ behavior in social dilemmas

This paper presents results of a laboratory experiment, in which subjects made choices between public and private transportation when managing Personal Carbon Allowances (PCAs). The objectives of this study were twofold. Firstly, it was aimed at investigating the labeling effect under the social dilemma context. Secondly, it showed insights into the decision-making process when feedback about others’ choices was provided. A combination of the labeling effect and feedback helped individuals change their commuting pattern and increase the number of trips by public transportation under the PCAs regime. Feedback on others’ choices resulted in social learning and incentivized choice of public transportation more frequently in social dilemma situations.     

Learning and development in neural networks--the importance of prior experience

Infants can discriminate between familiar and unfamiliar grammatical patterns expressed in a vocabulary that is distinct from that used earlier during familiarization (Cognition 70(2) (1999) 109; Science 283 (1999) 77). Various models have captured the data, although each required that discrimination be distinct, in terms of the computational process, from familiarization. This article describes a simple recurrent network (SRN), equipped only with the assumption that it should predict what comes next, which models the data without distinguishing between familiarization and discrimination. To accomplish this, the SRN requires pre-training on a range of sequences instantiating different structures and different vocabulary items to those used subsequently during familiarization and test. Pre-training enables the network to avoid replacing structure acquired during familiarization with structure experienced at test. An equivalent enabling condition may underpin infants' resistance to catastrophic interference between the different structures and vocabulary items to which they are exposed.     

Treating a Chronically Depressed Adolescent Female Using the Cognitive Behavioral Analysis System of Psychotherapy: A Case Study

A case is presented of an adolescent female with double depression who was treated using the Cognitive Behavioral Analysis System of Psychotherapy (CBASP). CBASP is designed to teach a social problem-solving procedure called Situational Analysis (SA). Generalized treatment effects were measured through monitoring of diagnostic status, two administrations of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-Adolescent, weekly administrations of the Child Depression Inventory, and acquisition performance ratings on the SA task. The results showed that CBASP appeared to be an effective treatment. The double depressive disorder remitted, and the patient learned to identify behavioral consequences as well as target and attain her interpersonal goals. CBASP can be effective for adolescents, although modifications of the adult form of the therapy may be necessary.     

A multisource exploration of the friendship patterns of children with and without learning disabilities

Friendship patterns of 117 children with learning disabilities (LD) and 115 children without LD in Grades 4–8 were examined. In comparison with children without LD, boys with LD had fewer mutual friends, children with LD had more friends with learning problems and more younger friends, and children with LD in Grades 4–6 had less stable relationships. With regard to friendship quality, children with LD reported higher levels of conflict, lower levels of validation, and more problems with relationship repair than did children without LD. The findings were discussed in terms of factors that have been found to enhance friendship such as proximity and similarity, and the social skills difficulties that have been associated with learning disabilities.     

Rats use a sense of direction to alternate on T-mazes located in adjacent rooms

Lister hooded rats were trained on a forced-sample T-maze alternation task in an environment lacking spatial landmarks. An early study of spontaneous alternation on the T-maze had shown that rats use a "spatial sense" to select alternate maze arms across mazes. As this phenomenon may provide a useful tool for studying the neural substrates of a directional sense, we wished to confirm this finding on a different version of the T-maze task, with well-trained animals. We found that rats successfully selected the appropriate maze arm when the choice phase of the task was presented on a second maze, oriented in the same direction, and located in an adjacent room. However, choice performance fell to chance level when the second maze was oriented 90° relative to the first. This result suggests that the rats do not simply alternate turns across the two environments, but rather that they rely on a sense of direction that is carried across environments. Electronic Publication     

One Frog, Two Frog, Red Frog, Blue Frog: Factors Affecting Children's Syntactic Choices in Production and Comprehension

Two experiments are reported which examine children's ability to use referential context when making syntactic choices in language production and comprehension. In a recent on-line study of auditory comprehension, Trueswell, Sekerina, Hill, and Logrip (1999) examined children's and adults' abilities to resolve temporary syntactic ambiguities involving prepositional phrases (e.g., “Put the frog on the napkin into ¨”). Although adults and older children used the referential context to guide their initial analysis (pursuing a destination interpretation in a one-frog context and a modifier interpretation in a two-frog context), 4 to 5-year olds' initial and ultimate analysis was one of destination, regardless of context. The present studies examined whether these differences were attributable to the comprehension process itself or to other sources, such as possible differences in how children perceive the scene and referential situation. In both experiments, children were given a language generation task designed to elicit and test children's ability to refer to a member of a set through restrictive modification. This task was immediately followed by the “put” comprehension task. The findings showed that, in response to a question about a member of a set (e.g., “Which frog went to Mrs. Squid's house?”), 4- to 5-year-olds frequently produced a definite NP with a restrictive prepositional modifier (e.g., “The one on the napkin”). These same children, however, continued to misanalyze put instructions, showing a strong avoidance of restrictive modification during comprehension. Experiment 2 showed that an increase in the salience of the platforms that distinguished the two referents increased overall performance, but still showed the strong asymmetry between production and comprehension. Eye movements were also recorded in Experiment 2, revealing on-line parsing patterns similar to Trueswell et al.: an initial preference for a destination analysis and a failure to revise early referential commitments. These experiments indicate that child–adult differences in parsing preferences arise, in part, from developmental changes in the comprehension process itself and not from a general insensitivity to referential properties of the scene. The findings are consistent with a probabilistic model for uncovering the structure of the input during comprehension, in which more reliable linguistic and discourse-related cues are learned first, followed by a gradually developing ability to take into account other more uncertain (or more difficult to learn) cues to structure.     

The Client Is the Most Important Common Factor: Clients' Self-Healing Capacities and Psychotherapy

I first briefly review the dodo bird verdict and suggest that we should be responding to it by looking for a new way to conceptualize how therapy works. Then I describe the dominant medical or treatment model of psychotherapy and how it puts the client in the position of a dependent variable who is operated on by supposedly potent therapeutic techniques. Next I argue that the data do not fit with this model. An alternative model is that the client is the most important common factor and that it is clients' self-healing capacities which make therapy work. I then argue that therapy has two phases—the involvement phase and the learning phase—and that the involvement phase is the most important. I next review the five learning opportunities provided by therapy. Finally, I argue that a relational model of therapy focused on consultation, collaboration, and dialogue is better than a treatment model.     

The variability of practice hypothesis in motor learning: does it apply to Alzheimer's disease?

Based on Schmidt's (1975) variability of practice hypothesis, this study examined acquisition and transfer of a gross motor skill, namely tossing, in 58 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and 58 healthy older adults under constant, blocked, and random practice conditions. While healthy older adults were able to learn the tossing task equally well under the three practice conditions, only AD patients receiving constant practice showed significant improvements. Tests of intermediate transfer yielded the expected random practice advantage in healthy controls but not AD patients. None of the practice conditions facilitated intermediate transfer in AD patients; however, constant practice did benefit these impaired individuals on tests of near transfer. These results indicate that the variability of practice hypothesis does not extend to AD patients. As motor learning and transfer were clearly a function of constant practice, future attempts to retrain basic activities of daily living in AD patients should emphasize consistency in training.