Bayesian change-point analysis reveals developmental change in a classic theory of mind task

Although learning and development reflect changes situated in an individual brain, most discussions of behavioral change are based on the evidence of group averages. Our reliance on group-averaged data creates a dilemma. On the one hand, we need to use traditional inferential statistics. On the other hand, group averages are highly ambiguous when we need to understand change in the individual; the average pattern of change may characterize all, some, or none of the individuals in the group. Here we present a new method for statistically characterizing developmental change in each individual child we study. Using false-belief tasks, fifty-two children in two cohorts were repeatedly tested for varying lengths of time between 3 and 5 years of age. Using a novel Bayesian change point analysis, we determined both the presence and—just as importantly—the absence of change in individual longitudinal cumulative records. Whenever the analysis supports a change conclusion, it identifies in that child’s record the most likely point at which change occurred. Results show striking variability in patterns of change and stability across individual children. We then group the individuals by their various patterns of change or no change. The resulting patterns provide scarce support for sudden changes in competence and shed new light on the concepts of “passing” and “failing” in developmental studies.     

A non-linear utility theory with multiple objectives

The aim of this paper is to make optimum several objectives at the same time which would enable a measurement of utility for several possible alternatives. The problem is solved if a strong or weak dominance exists between the alternatives, otherwise a set of incomparable alternatives would be present. Therefore, indifference curve analysis offers the outcome but as these indifference loci are difficult to determine only the characteristics of this analysis are maintained viz. decreasing marginal utility, non-linearity and even non-convexity. Indifference and reference point theory with the Minkowski min–max-metric only respond to these characteristics. Also the problem of generating alternatives during the process is taken into consideration. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

卫生立法——一个基本的着眼点

公平是法的灵魂。卫生立法的根本着眼点,是为了在现有卫生资源条件下,通过立法的手段更好地满足人民群众卫生保健的需要,在医疗保健服务的多方的利益关系中,找到一个合理结合度。     

肿瘤疫苗治疗肿瘤的前景

肿瘤疫苗的发展已经历了一个多世纪,20世纪50年代,人们开始了自体肿瘤疫苗的研究.使肿瘤疫苗(主动性免疫治疗)成为继手术、放疗、化疗之后的肿瘤治疗方法.肿瘤疫苗作为主动特异性免疫治疗,在临床中起到越来越重要的作用,人们开始尝试利用多种方法制备肿瘤疫苗并利用其促进机体免疫应答,从整体细胞,分子水平调控机体对肿瘤的免疫.目前肿瘤疫苗的研制已取得很大进展,给人类战胜肿瘤提供很大希望.     

Asking ‘why’ still increases intrusions: A response to Ayduk and Kross (2008)

In their response piece, Ayduk and Kross (Ayduk, O., & Kross, E. (2008). Asking ‘why’ from a distance facilitates emotional processing: a reanalysis of Wimalaweera and Moulds (2008). Behaviour Research and Therapy) raised a number of interesting and important points regarding the findings reported in our recently published paper (Wimalaweera, S., & Moulds, M.L. (2008). Processing memories of anger-eliciting events: the effect of asking ‘why’ from a distance. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 46, 402-409.). Their additional analyses of our dataset resulted in a thought-provoking response to our paper. We are grateful for their interest in and consideration of our findings, and for the opportunity to respond to their concerns. We concur with many of the points that they raised. Nonetheless, a number of their procedures and interpretations warrant comment and clarification. Most critically, we correct what appears to be a fundamental misunderstanding of our argument that encouraging distanced-why recall facilitates rather than results in avoidance. In so doing, we address their repeated criticism that the avoidance subscale of the Impact of Event Scale was omitted from the original analyses. Second, we address the rationale for the lack of consistency in the inclusion of all of the experimental conditions in the additional analyses, particularly in light of the theoretical relevance of the immersed-what condition to elucidating the processes that facilitate emotional processing. We call for a consistent analytic strategy, emphasize the need for replication with larger samples, and urge caution in the extrapolation of experimental findings to clinical recommendations.     

Genetic and environmental transactions underlying educational attainment

This report used a population-representative longitudinal twin study with two birth cohorts to explore the association between intelligence and education by understanding how genetic and environmental influences on intelligence moderate genetic and environmental influences on school grades and educational attainment. Nonshared environmental influences on grades were strong when IQ was low, but decreased across the range of IQ. Shared environmental influences common to age 24 educational attainment and age 17 IQ were strong when IQ was low, but genetic influences common to IQ and education were strong when IQ was high. These results suggest that the causal mechanisms linking educational variables with intelligence differ for people with different levels of intelligence.     

Motor Behavior Concepts in the Study of Balance: A Scoping Review

Abstract

Previous research suggests that using Fitts’ law; attentional focus or challenge point framework (CPF) is beneficial in balance control studies. A scoping review was conducted to examine studies that utilized these motor behavior concepts during balance control tasks. An extensive literature search was performed up to January 2018. Two independent reviewers conducted a study selection process followed by data extraction of the search results. Forty-six studies were identified, with 2 studies related to CPF, 12 studies related to Fitts’ law and 32 studies related to focus of attention. The CPF appears to be a useful method for designing a progressive therapeutic program. Fitts’ law can be used as a tool for controlling the difficulty of motor tasks. Focus of attention studies indicate that adopting an external focus of attention improves task performance. Overall, studies included in this review report benefit when using the selected motor behavior concepts. However, the majority (>80%) of studies included in the review involved healthy populations, with only three clinical trials. In order to ascertain the benefits of the selected motor behavior concepts in clinical settings, future research should focus on using these concepts for clinical trials to examine balance control among people with balance impairments.     

A Survey on Development and Applications of the Multi‐criteria Decision Making Method MULTIMOORA

This paper focuses on the MULTIMOORA method. Specifically, it discusses its development as well as extensions alongside with an overview of their applications. Indeed, the MULTIMOORA is a relatively new multi‐criteria decision making method consisting of the three parts. Therefore, it is specific with peculiarities of both complete and partial aggregation techniques. The MULTIMOORA method consists of the three parts, namely the Ratio System, the Reference Point, and the Full Multiplicative Form. The paper discussed the extensions of MULTIMOORA into the fuzzy environment and group decision making. The carried out survey identified the two major areas of application of MOORA and MULTIMOORA, namely engineering decision support for technological development and economic researches. The economic researches can further be classified into those related to micro‐level or macro‐level analyses. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equilibrium Selection,Similarity Judgments,and the “Nothing to Gain/Nothing to Lose” Effect

Rubinstein and Leland have both demonstrated that many observed violations of expected and discounted utility can be explained if people employ similarity judgments to make choices. In this paper, I show that this decision process also explains which equilibria will be selected in single‐shot games with multiple equilibria and implies that play in games will be associated with anomalies in risky choice. Data supporting these predictions are presented. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Developing equivalent Chinese and English scale‐point labels for rating scales used in survey research

Rating scales are the most frequently‐used response tool in surveys, and the scale levels are commonly described with words [verbal scale‐point labels (VSPL)]. In this study, Chinese VSPL were identified which employ five‐point scales that are psychometrically equivalent to English VSPL. In several bilingual studies, a total of 61 Chinese and 44 English items addressing intensity, frequency, and agreement rating modalities were tested. For each VSPL, three aspects were measured: position between minimum and maximum, familiarity, and appeal. The correspondence between pertinent Chinese and English words was also assessed. Based on these findings, we recommend specific VSPL that are best‐suited for achieving equivalence between Chinese and English in rating scales.