A signal detection framework for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts

In this paper I formulate an approach for evaluating probabilistic forecasts in terms of signal detection theory. Signal detection theory provides a powerful perspective for this type of problem, and a rich empirical background including methodological tools as well as an extensive body of research in many domains. I propose procedures which emphasize the maximization of expected utility for the decision maker who uses the forecasts. Further, I suggest approaches to obtaining indices of calibration and resolution within this framework. I also present arguments that the proposed indices will exhibit the same basic properties as do decompositions of Brier's (1950, Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1–3) mean probability score. However, the properties may be reflected in different ways, and hence, the present methods may lead to different conclusions about forecasting ability. Finally, I argue that the use of an expected utility loss function makes this approach more appropriate for practical applications as well as for theoretical research than other procedures with more arbitrary loss functions.     

The effects of feedback consistency and feedback favorability on self-perceived task competence and perceived feedback accuracy

The present study, employing a 2 × 2 true-experimental design and regression analyses assessed the main and interactive effects of feedback consistency (consistent vs inconsistent), and feedback favorability (acceptable vs superior), for feedback given at two time periods on measures of perceived feedback accuracy and self-perceived task competence. Among the study's findings were that (a) the perceived accuracy of feedback at the second period was a function of the favorability of feedback received at the first time period, (b) the self-perceived task competence levels of subjects were jointly determined by the favorability of feedback received at both time periods, and (c) the perceived accuracy of feedback was a function of its consistency. Organizational implications of the study's results are offered.     

Mid-career change in academia: The decision to become an administrator

This study explored the reasons why professors would leave their teaching/ research occupations to begin new careers as administrators. Valence-Instrumentality-Expectancy theory of occupational preference and choice was used as a framework to examine mid-career change among professors and department chairmen at a major university. Data showed that professors' intentions to change careers and become administrators could be explained by the theory. Analyses of job characteristics demonstrated that professors who want a mid-career change are primarily attracted by the power and formal authority vested in the administrative position, while professors who prefer to remain in their career paths do so because of the autonomy it offers.     

The web of work for technical and managerial employees

This study examines aspects of the job and off-job lives of technical and managerial employees. A framework for studying parallel dimensions in these two life spheres is developed. Variables include alienation—powerlessness and meaninglessness—and activities—variety, control, social interaction, and purpose. Findings show strong interaction between alienation from work and that experienced from life off the job. Limited relationships between activity dimensions were found. Overall, results suggest that employees' feelings of alienation carry over strongly between the two life spheres but that only limited carry-over occurs between job activities and those away from work. Findings give no support to the compensatory view of relationships between employees' job and off-job lives.     

Relationships between perceptions of organizational size and the organizational choice process

Expectancy theory concepts were used to predict (a) the attractiveness of, (b) the amount of effort directed toward entering, and (c) the eventual choice of a job in relatively big and small work organizations. It was found, among a group of graduating seniors from a technical college, that antecedent perceptions regarding organizational size (expectancy, valence, instrumentality) were significantly related to the relative attractiveness of different-sized organizations and the number of job interviews taken with relatively big and small companies. In addition, economically tied extrinsic outcomes were seen as more readily attainable in big organizations, whereas certain intrinsic outcomes were perceived to be more easily obtained in small organizations.     

Clustering of skills and occupations: A generic skills approach to occupational training

A report on the process and procedures of determining generic occupational skills and clusters of occupations for optimal occupational training needs is presented. Four hundred and ninety workers and their supervisors representing 37 different occupations were interviewed using a structured questionnaire consisting of items on mathematics, communication, reasoning, and interpersonal and manipulative skills. Respondents were asked to indicate whether a specific skill was a prerequisite to enter a job and also whether that specific skill was required on the job. Six, three, and two hierarchical skill factors and nine occupational clusters were identified. Training and curricular implications were explored.     

Job attachment,satisfaction, and turnover among public sector employees

This study sought (1) to compare the relative predictive powers of job attachment and job satisfaction with respect to turnover among a sample of public employees; and (2) to examine individual and job-related influences on both attitudes. It was found that attachment was a more effective predictor of turnover than overall satisfaction (or any facet of satisfaction), even when the alternative attitude was partialled out. In addition, it was found that individual employee characteristics were more strongly related to attachment than were job characteristics, while the opposite was found for satisfaction. The findings are discussed in the light of previous evidence, and implications are drawn for research in vocational behavior.     

Psychological cost-benefit as an intervening construct in career choice models

A causal model for career choice was outlined, encompassing psychological cost-benefit-profit as a central intervening construct. The model was applied to the career choice (education vs work) after high school graduation and tested on longitudinal data from 173 students. The main problem concerned the relationship among the components in the causal career choice model, using multiple correlation and path analysis as tools. The results showed clear sex differences. For boys, the model was a rather powerful predictor of career choice (R = 0.70), and Psychological profit with regard to continued education had a clear direct effect as well as an indirect effect on career choice. For girls, the predictive validity was low (R = 0.35) and Psychological profit affected career choice only indirectly via Educational aspiration.     

The stability of status orientations among young,white, rural women from three southern states

This paper reports the results of a panel study of young, white, rural women from Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas (N = 138). The study was primarily concerned with how social origin variables affected early educational and occupational orientations and how early states of these orientations affected the orientations themselves at a later point in time. The results indicated that mother's education had a greater effect than father's education, but in either case the effect is mediated by intervening influences such as early aspirations and expectations. These young women held very traditional status orientations (with 60% projecting the occupations of beautician, nurse, stenographer, or school teacher), and their orientations were quite stable between their sophomore and senior years in high school. Since there has been so little work reported on the status attainment process for women, and rural women in particular, this study does offer a limited insight into this phenomenon.