Remarks on Grandi’s Comments

This note is a reply to some of Giovanni Grandi’s comments on my paper “Berkeley’s Contingent Necessities.”

Hindsight bias redefined: It’s about time

Four experiments introduced a new conceptual and methodological approach to hindsight bias, traditionally defined as the tendency to exaggerate the a priori predictability of outcomes after they become known. By examining likelihood estimates rooted to specific time points during an unfolding event sequence (videos and short text stories), judged both in foresight and hindsight, we conceptualized hindsight bias as a contrast between two “inevitability curves,” which plotted likelihood against time. Taking timing into account, we defined three new indicators of accuracy: linear accuracy (how well hindsight judgments capture the linear trend of foresight judgments over time), rate accuracy (how well hindsight judgments reflect the slope of foresight judgments over time), and temporal accuracy (how well hindsight judgments specify the overall timing of the full envelope of foresight judgments). Results demonstrated that hindsight judgments showed linear and rate accuracy, but were biased only in terms of lack of temporal accuracy. The oft-used catchphrase “knew it all along effect” was found to be a misnomer, in that participants were well aware in hindsight that their earlier foresight judgments reflected uncertainty. The current research therefore points to one way in which retrospective judgments can be considered biased, yet simultaneously suggests that considerable accuracy exists when people render such judgments.     

Criterion-related bias with the guide to the assessment of test-session behavior for the WISC-III and WIAT: Possible race/ethnicity, gender, and SES effects

Using the Guide to the Assessment of Test-Session Behavior for the WISC-III and WIAT (GATSB), Anglo examiners recorded test observations for 969 children between the ages of 6 and 16 years. The children came from the standardization and validity-study samples of GATSB ratings completed with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale-Third Edition (WISC-III) (Wechsler, 1991). The sample differed by race (Anglo, black, Latino), socioeconomic status (SES) (high, middle, low), and gender. GATSB ratings and WISC-III Verbal, Performance, and Full Scale IQs were compared. Correlations between the GATSB and WISC-III were generally moderate (average R = -.27). Children who exhibited higher levels of avoidance, inattentiveness, and uncooperative behaviors while being tested tended to exhibit lower WISC-III scores. This pattern held true for Anglos, blacks, and Latinos; for girls and boys; and for those from high-, middle-, and low-SES homes. Evidence was generally absent that Anglo examiners display bias in black-Anglo, gender, or SES comparisons. However, consistent differences were noted between Latino and Anglo children. Examiners tended to rate Latinos as displaying better test behaviors than Anglos when children's IQs were below average, but comparable when IQs were average and above. Thus, the GATSB generally displayed similar intrasession validities for children who differ by race/ethnicity, gender, and SES.     

Clarifications on the application and interpretation of the test for excess significance and its extensions

This commentary discusses challenges in the application of the test for excess significance (Ioannidis & Trikalinos, 2007) including the definition of the body of evidence, the plausible effect size for power calculations and the threshold of statistical significance. Interpretation should be cautious, given that it is not possible to separate different mechanisms of bias (classic publication bias, selective analysis, and fabrication) that lead to an excess of significance and in some fields significance-related biases may follow a complex pattern (e.g. Proteus phenomenon and occasional preference for “negative” results). Likelihood ratio estimates can be used to generate the post-test probability of bias, and correcting effect estimates for bias is possible in theory, but may not necessarily be reliable.     

A Single-Session Online Cognitive Bias Modification of Interpretations Modified for Adults With Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms

Anxiety and depression are common, co-occurring, and costly mental health disorders. Cognitive bias modification aims to modify biases to reduce associated symptoms. Few studies have targeted multiple biases associated with both anxiety and depression, and those that have lacked a control condition. This study piloted a single-session online cognitive bias modification (known as CBM-IA) designed to target two biases associated with anxiety and depression—interpretation bias and attribution style—in adults with varying levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms. Participants (18–26 years) with at least mild levels of anxiety/stress and depressive symptoms on the DASS-21 were randomly allocated to an intervention (n = 23) or a control (n = 22) condition. The training consisted of a single-session online CBM-IA to encourage positive interpretations and a positive attribution style.Interpretation bias, attribution style, anxious and depressive mood states, and anxiety, stress and depressive symptoms improved at posttraining and at follow-up, irrespective of condition. Changes in interpretation bias from pre- to posttraining were significantly associated with changes in anxious mood state. CBM-IA, as implemented in this single-session pilot study, did not significantly reduce targeted biases and symptoms compared to a control condition. This adds to the mixed evidence on the efficacy of single-session CBM-I for altering biases and symptoms.     

Theology and Mathematics—Key Themes and Central Historical Figures

This article provides a survey of the history of the dialogue between the disciplines of mathematics and theology. It identifies three principal historical periods—the ancient, the scientific revolution, and modern. It identifies five key themes—the ontological status of mathematics; mathematics as a bridge to a noumenal world; God's relationship to the physical universe and how mathematics is part of this; truth—its nature, how we know it, certitude; and the role of mathematics in culture. The author develops these themes by exploring the thinking of several major historical figures.     

I. Kant after Virtue 1

Maclntyre's refurbishing of Aristotelian ethics aims to restore both intelligibility and rationality to moral discourse. In After Virtue he concentrates on showing how intelligible action requires that lives be led within institutional and cultural traditions. But he does not offer a developed account of practical reason which could provide grounds for seeking some rather than other intelligible continuations of lives and traditions. Despite Maclntyre's criticisms of Kant's ethics, a Kantian account of practical reasoning may complement his account of intelligibility. An appropriate interpretation of Kantian ethics is outlined, which escapes Maclntyre's criticisms, allows both for the universal character of basic moral principles and for the historical variability of intelligible action, and which makes moral worth or virtue the centre of the moral life. The refurbishing of Aristotelian ethics may be achieved by a Kantian completion.     

Coping and physical health outcomes: an overview

The aim of the present study was to investigate longitudinally the sensitivity of optimistic beliefs (positive outcome expectancies, efficacy expectancies, and optimistic bias) to disease-related stress (measured by disease duration, depressive symptoms, physical symptoms, physical impairment, and life-events) in Type 1 diabetes (n = 90) and multiple sclerosis (n = 90). First, we examined whether chronically ill patients were less optimistic than a healthy control group (n = 60), which showed that patients reported lower levels of optimistic bias but similar levels of the two other optimistic beliefs. Next, we analyzed the stability of the three types of optimistic beliefs across time (one year) for both disease groups, which demonstrated that optimistic bias in MS patients decreased. Finally, the impact of disease-related stressors on optimistic beliefs during a one-year period was determined, showing that all three optimistic beliefs decreased when patients reported depressive symptoms. Together, these findings show that positive outcome expectancies and efficacy expectancies were unaffected by being ill and fairly stable unless patients reported depressive symptoms while optimistic bias appeared to decrease as a result of being ill. Results are discussed in terms of the role of control and depression in optimistic bias.     

Understanding suicidal behaviour in young people referred to specialist CAMHS: a qualitative psychoanalytic clinical research project

A qualitative psychoanalytic clinical research project using a post-Kleinian contemporary approach was undertaken by a team of seven qualified and experienced child psychotherapists working in community Tier 3 Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS). A number of referred young people who deliberately harmed themselves or attempted suicide, who fulfilled the inclusion criteria and consented to participate, were offered an extended individual and family assessment. Grounded Theory analysis of the qualitative data led to the formulation of the Truth Danger Theory. Typical situations in which suicidal behaviour occurred were identified, including intergenerational confusion, neglect, physical and/or sexual abuse within the family, Oedipal conflict, maternal depression and families in which there was a chronically ill sibling. We found that there was a marked disparity between the young person's experience of relationships in the family and the family's own account of their situation, a fractured reality. This can be reflected in an incongruence in the young person's presentation, which may be misleading when assessing risk. The young person feels him/herself to be in a dead end from which there seems to be no escape. Self-harm, for some, contains this impossible dilemma (albeit pathologically) but when it does not, suicide may seem the only option. The Truth Danger Theory provides explanations and predictions for suicidal behaviour and has implications for clinical practice.