Subtask analysis of process data through a predictive model

Response process data collected from human–computer interactive items contain detailed information about respondents' behavioural patterns and cognitive processes. Such data are valuable sources for analysing respondents' problem-solving strategies. However, the irregular data format and the complex structure make standard statistical tools difficult to apply. This article develops a computationally efficient method for exploratory analysis of such process data. The new approach segments a lengthy individual process into a sequence of short subprocesses to achieve complexity reduction, easy clustering and meaningful interpretation. Each subprocess is considered a subtask. The segmentation is based on sequential action predictability using a parsimonious predictive model combined with the Shannon entropy. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the new method. We use a case study of PIAAC 2012 to demonstrate how exploratory analysis for process data can be carried out with the new approach.     

The desirability of beliefs: preschoolers' appreciation of fact beliefs and subsequent emotions

In this study, we investigated the extent to which preschool children's own knowledge about reality biases their understanding that others' beliefs about reality govern others' emotions and not reality itself. Therefore, an increasing tension was created between the beliefs of the protagonist and the participant, by providing varying degrees of evidence about the validity of the protagonist's belief. Children of between 4 and 5 years of age were asked to predict the protagonist's emotion, given the protagonist's desire and the protagonist's belief. The results show that, to a certain extent, preschool children take others' beliefs into account when predicting others' emotions. When the outcome is clear, children probably feel tied to reality, and in the case of false beliefs, their knowledge about reality biases their emotion predictions, as was also evident in ‘false belief’ research (Wimmer H, Perner I. 1983. Beliefs about beliefs: representation and constraining function of wrong beliefs in young children's understanding of deception. Cognition 13: 103–128). However, when it is uncertain what the actual outcome will be, then it is not the likelihood of others' beliefs but the desirability of the outcome that biases children's predictions of others' emotions. In other words, when the actual outcome is yet unclear, 4‐ and 5‐year‐olds show a tendency for wishful thinking in their predictions of others' emotions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Early cognitive development and parental education

Relations between cognitive development in infancy and early childhood, and parental education were examined. Previous research has found little association between measures of the parenting environment, including parental education and socio‐economic status (SES), and cognitive development in infants and children under 2 years of age. However, the earlier studies may not have reliably measured individual differences in cognitive abilities, thus, there is uncertainty as to what age elements in the parental environment affect cognitive development. Seventy‐six infants were tested on a range of cognitive tasks at 3‐month intervals between the ages of 9 and 18 months. Information on parental education (a component of SES) was collected. Seventy‐one of the children returned at 27 months and completed the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, Mental Scale, which was used as an outcome measure for the earlier tasks. The findings present a clear indication that cognitive development in early childhood is affected by the parenting environment, at least from as early as 12 months. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Relative Contribution of Diagnostic and Psychosocial Variables to Severity of Suicidal Ideation

The present study examined the relative contribution of diagnostic and psychosocial factors to the prediction of severity of suicidal ideation in a sample of 78 college students. Using hierarchical regression analyses to control for each set of factors, psychosocial variables were found to consistently predict level of suicidal ideation. In contrast, diagnostic variables including diagnosis of substance abuse and composite scores for depression and anxiety were unrelated to level of suicidality. An examination of individual diagnoses revealed no predictable relationships with severity of suicidality in this population. The results were discussed from several methodological viewpoints.     

Desirability bias among professional investment managers: some evidence from experts

Desirability bias is the tendency to overpredict desirable outcomes and underpredict unwanted outcomes. Previous research suggests that this bias is quite pervasive among non-experts but there is very scant evidence of its intensity among experts. For at least twenty years, financial academics and, to a lesser extent, practicing investment managers have claimed that the financial markets are among the most efficient and bias free in existence. Therefore, this paper examines the degree of desirability bias among expert and practicing US and Taiwanese investment managers. The empirical results suggest that desirability bias does appear to be a characteristic of these experts. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is motion extrapolation employed in multiple object tracking? Tracking as a low-level, non-predictive function

In a series of five experiments, we investigated whether visual tracking mechanisms utilize prediction when recovering multiple reappearing objects. When all objects abruptly disappeared and reappeared mid-trajectory, it was found that (a) subjects tracked better when objects reappeared at their loci of disappearance than when they reappeared in their extrapolated trajectories, (b) disappearance episodes ranging from 150 to 900 ms had virtually no differential effect on performance, (c) tracking deteriorated monotonically as a function of displacement magnitude during disappearance, and (d) tracking did not depend on whether objects moved in predictable paths. Even objects that reappeared backward in their trajectories were tracked dramatically better than objects that reappeared in their extrapolated trajectories. When all objects disappeared and reappeared in ways that implicated the presence of an occluder (i.e., with occlusion and disocclusion cues along fixed contours), tracking again was not predictive, and performance deteriorated with increased displacement. When objects reappeared predictably in 75% of trials, they were still tracked better when they reappeared at their points of disappearance. Theoretical implications of a non-predictive multiple object tracking mechanism are discussed.     

Trust, Dependency, and Control in the Contemporary Organization

Trust is an essential element in productive and effective intraorganizational communication and interaction. The present study examined several consequences of trust in terms of influence strategies used and the frequency with which people interact with each other. The study also examined the extent to which the technology of work affects management's dependency on their employees. It was found that distrust of subordinates by managers (n = 275) was associated with the use of strong tactics of influence, little dependency on employees, and the use of personal-related characteristics to explain distrust. It was also found that distrust of managers by subordinates (n = 267) was associated with the use of strong methods of influence, less interaction, less attempts to influence, and the use of personal-related characteristics to explain lack of trust. These findings have clear implications for understanding the relation among worker trust, dependency, and social influence. The data suggest that both employees and employers could benefit from considering the importance of a trusting relationship in the workplace.     

维度的结合与分离对归类不确定性预测的影响

探讨在归类不确定的情境下目标与预测特征两个维度的结合或分离对被试特征预测的影响。共包括 3个实验 :实验 1在Murphy和Ross的研究的基础上进一步提高非靶类型中目标及预测特征的基本概率 ,考察被试的特征预测是否会受非靶类型信息的影响。实验 2探讨非靶类型的目标与预测特征结合与否是否会影响被试预测特征时对非靶类型信息的使用。实验 3探讨提高靶类型中目标与预测特征结合的比例是否影响被试对特征的预测。结果表明 :当非靶类型中目标与关键特征处于分离的状态时 ,被试在进行特征预测时没有利用非靶类型的信息 ,符合单类说的假设 ;而当非靶类型中目标与关键特征结合时 ,被试在进行特征预测时则会利用非靶类型的信息 ,符合Bayesian规则 ;靶类型中的目标与关键特征结合的比例提高 ,被试对特征预测的概率也随之提高。据此 ,本研究将目标与预测特征结合比例这个变量加入Bayesian规则的计算公式 ,对该预测模型进行了修正     

Stability and prediction of parenting stress

The study focused on stability and prediction of parenting stress experiences over a 6‐year period. Mothers (N=93) who had received a clinical intervention for feeding or sleeping problems during infancy (Time 1; T 1) were followed‐up when the children were 5–10 years old (Time 2; T 2). An age‐ and sex‐of‐child matched normal group was used for comparison of stress levels at T 2. Parenting stress was measured by the Swedish Parenthood Stress Questionnaire, which consists of a general parenting stress scale and sub‐scales tapping different aspects of parenting stress experiences. T 1 predictors were clinical assessments of child problem load, maternal unresponsiveness, and family psychosocial problems. T 2 predictors were mother‐reported concurrent child problem load and psychosocial problems. The individual stability in stress experiences was moderate. Effect sizes indicated that mothers with early clinical contacts had reduced their stress to levels close to those in the normal sample. Parenting stress at T 2 could be predicted from early and from concurrent child and family problems. The results point to the relevance of early clinical assessments and to the importance of a sub‐area approach in parenting stress research, as there were differences between stress sub‐areas regarding both prediction and stability. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.