Motivated reasoning in the prediction of sports outcomes and the belief in the “hot hand”

The present paper explores the role of motivation to observe a certain outcome in people’s predictions, causal attributions, and beliefs about a streak of binary outcomes (basketball scoring shots). In two studies we found that positive streaks (points scored by the participants’ favourite team) lead participants to predict the streak’s continuation (belief in the hot hand), but negative streaks lead to predictions of its end (gambler’s fallacy). More importantly, these wishful predictions are supported by strategic attributions and beliefs about how and why a streak might unfold. Results suggest that the effect of motivation on predictions is mediated by a serial path via causal attributions to the teams at play and belief in the hot hand.     

自恋人格调节信任博弈的结果评价

自恋人格个体表现出亲社会行为的减少和对他人的反馈敏感。信任是人类社会互动行为的基础,自恋人格特质可能影响他们的信任决策。为了探究自恋水平如何影响信任博弈中结果评价的大脑活动,本研究采用事件相关电位技术记录了38名被试完成单次信任博弈时的脑电波。行为结果发现相对高自恋者的信任选择率显著低于相对低自恋者的信任选择率。脑电结果表明,相对高自恋者信任损失反馈减互惠获利反馈所得的FRN差异波(d FRN)显著地大于相对低自恋者,并且相对高自恋者结果评价诱发的P300波幅显著地大于相对低自恋者。本研究提供了自恋人格个体信任博弈中结果评价的初步神经电生理学证据。     

Know thy agency in predictive coding: Meta-monitoring over forward modeling

Though the computation of agency is thought to be based on prediction error, it is important for us to grasp our own reliability of that detected error. Here, the current study shows that we have a meta-monitoring ability over our own forward model, where the accuracy of motor prediction and therefore of the felt agency are implicitly evaluated. Healthy participants (N = 105) conducted a simple motor control task and SELF or OTHER visual feedback was given. The relationship between the accuracy and confidence in a mismatch detection task and in a self-other attribution task was examined. The results suggest an accuracy-confidence correlation in both tasks, indicating our meta-monitoring ability over such decisions. Furthermore, a statistically identified group with low accuracy and low confidence was characterized as higher schizotypal people. Finally, what we can know about our own forward model and how we can know it is discussed.     

Child-Directed Interaction: Prediction of Change in Impaired Mother–Child Functioning

The first phase of parent–child interaction therapy (PCIT), called child-directed interaction, teaches parents to use positive and differential social attention to improve the parent–child relationship. This study examined predictors of change in mother and child functioning during the child-directed interaction for 100 mother–child dyads. The children were 3–6-years-old and diagnosed with oppositional defiant disorder. After establishing that significant improvements occurred in mother report of child disruptive behavior, parenting stress, and parenting practices, these three variables were combined to form a latent impaired mother–child functioning construct. Structural equation models were examined using maternal demographic and psychosocial variables as predictors of impaired mother–child functioning before and after the child-directed interaction. Mothers’ self-reported daily hassles and depressive symptomatology predicted 74% of variance in impaired mother–child functioning before treatment. Mothers’ report of social support predicted impaired mother–child functioning after the child-directed interaction, with 57% of the variance accounted for in this longitudinal model. These findings suggest the importance of improving maternal social support during the initial phase of PCIT.

Integration of syntactic and semantic information in predictive processing: cross-linguistic evidence from German and English

Two visual-world eyetracking experiments were conducted to investigate whether, how, and when syntactic and semantic constraints are integrated and used to predict properties of subsequent input. Experiment 1 contrasted auditory German constructions such as, The hare-nominative eats ... (the cabbage-acc) versus The hare-accusative eats ... (the fox-nom), presented with a picture containing a hare, fox, cabbage, and distractor. We found that the probabilities of the eye movements to the cabbage and fox before the onset of NP2 were modulated by the case-marking of NP1, indicating that the case-marking (syntactic) information and verbs' semantic constraints are integrated rapidly enough to predict the most plausible NP2 in the scene. Using English versions of the same stimuli in active/passive voice (Experiment 2), we replicated the same effect, but at a slightly earlier position in the sentence. We discuss the discrepancies in the two Germanic languages in terms of the ease of integrating information across, or within, constituents.     

The Primary and Secondary Factors That Promote Destructive Personalities

The ability of behavioral scientists to assist society deal competently with destructive behavior relies upon a recognition of its causes. Despite the pervasiveness of violence in American society, the roots of destructiveness are still poorly understood. Five primary and five secondary factors found in the developmental histories of people who have become involved in serious destruction are identified and discussed. The confluence of these factors in the steps toward destructive acts are traced.     

Get the Message: Targeting Beliefs to Develop Risk Reduction Intervention Messages for African American Adolescents

Risk reduction interventions that promote condom use, a vital component of most HIV prevention interventions, have been successful in increasing condom use among African American adolescents. Understanding theoretical components that lead to behavior change and selecting relevant risk reduction messages remain important considerations for targeting new interventions and tailoring existing interventions. The present study sought to (1) identify the most important theoretical determinants of condom use intention in African American adolescent males and females, separately, using the integrative model of behavior prediction, and (2) identify underlying beliefs within the determinants that were good candidates for message development in similar interventions. Using 446 African American adolescents, multi‐group SEM indicated that the gender‐specific IM exhibited a better fit than the overall model. Specifically, the IM had a stronger capacity for predicting condom use intention and condom use behavior for adolescent boys. Using a specific criteria for message selection, specific condom use beliefs were discussed as potential candidate messages for both African American males and females.     

上司人际公平如何影响员工工作结果:有中介的调节效应

本文探讨了上司的人际公平怎样影响员工工作满意度和人际层面组织公民行为,以及这种影响何时更强或更弱。通过对237名在职人员调查,结果发现:(1)员工的上司信任在人际公平与工作满意度、人际层面组织公民行为之间具有部分和完全中介作用;(2)上司权力对人际公平效应具有调节作用:当上司权力较高时,人际公平显著影响员工对他的信任,进而影响工作满意度和人际层面组织公民行为;而当其权力较低时,人际公平的影响不明显。     

Towards computational models of intention detection and intention prediction

Intention recognition is one of the core components of mindreading, an important process in social cognition. Human beings, from age of 18 months, have been shown to be able to extrapolate intentions from observed actions, even when the performer failed at achieving the goal. Existing accounts of intention recognition emphasize the use of an intent (plan) library, which is matched against observed actions for recognition. These therefore cannot account for recognition of failed sequences of actions, nor novel actions. In this paper, we begin to tackle these open questions by examining computational models for components of human intention recognition, which emphasize the ability of humans to detect and identify intentions in a sequence of observed actions, based solely on the rationality of movement (its efficiency). We provide a high-level overview of intention recognition as a whole, and then elaborate on two components of the model, which we believe to be at its core, namely, those of intention detection and intention prediction. By intention detection we mean the ability to discern whether a sequence of actions has any underlying intention at all, or whether it was performed in an arbitrary manner with no goal in mind. By intention prediction we mean the ability to extend an incomplete sequence of actions to its most likely intended goal. We evaluate the model, and these two components, in context of existing literature, and in a number of experiments with more than 140 human subjects. For intention detection, our model was able to attribute high levels of intention to those traces perceived by humans as intentional, and vice versa. For intention prediction as well, our model performed in a way that closely matched that of humans. The work highlights the intimate relationship between the ability to generate plans, and the ability to recognize intentions.