The Predictive Validity of Parent and Teacher Reports of ADHD Symptoms

The objectives were to evaluate the ability of the Inattention and Hyperactivity–Impulsivity factors of the ADHD Rating Scale-IV to differentiate children with ADHD from a control group and to discriminate children with different subtypes of ADHD. Also, we sought to determine optimal cutoff scores on the teacher and parent versions of this scale for making diagnostic decisions about ADHD. In a sample of 92 boys and girls 6 to 14 years of age referred to a regional ADHD program, we assessed ADHD diagnostic status using categorical and dimensional approaches as well as parent- and teacher-report measures. Logistic regression analyses showed that the Inattention and Hyperactivity–Impulsivity factors of the ADHD Rating Scale-IV were effective in discriminating children with ADHD from a control group and differentiating children with ADHD, Combined Type from ADHD, Inattentive Type. Although both teacher and parent ratings were significantly predictive of diagnostic status, teacher ratings made a stronger contribution to the prediction of subtype membership. Using symptom utility estimates, optimal cutoff scores on the Inattention and Hyperactivity–Impulsivity scales for predicting subtypes of ADHD were determined.     

Diagnostic morbidity and its relationship to severity of ideation for a nonpsychiatric sample of chronic and severe suicide ideators

This study examined the relationships of frequency and type of psychiatric diagnosis to suicidality within a sample of chronically and severely ideating college-aged students (N=78). The most common diagnoses were the depressive disorders, comprising 43% of all diagnoses, followed by anxiety disorders, comprising 17% of all diagnoses. Retrospective reports of childhood diagnoses were also quite common, comprising 38% of all diagnoses. Number of psychiatric diagnoses was significantly correlated with severity of suicidal ideation (r=.27,p<.02). Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that retrospective childhood diagnoses of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and separation anxiety disorder significantly predicted 19% of the variance in severity of suicidal ideation after controlling for current diagnoses of major depression and PTSD. When entry of childhood and current diagnoses were reversed, PTSD significantly predicted 4% of the variance in severity of suicidal ideation, while major depression was rendered nonsignificant. Severe suicide ideation, therefore, may be a product of early psychological problems as well as the number of such problems.     

Predicting Quality of Life After Lumbar Spondylodesis

Quality of life after spondylodesis was predicted by pretreatment psychological variables and findings in a standardized physical examination. Four quality-of-life criteria were used: functional capacity, vocational rehabilitation, satisfaction with the outcome of the operation, and pain intensity recorded in a pain diary. Those of six presurgery variables that proved to be associated with the outcome 9 months postsurgery, by means of a multiple stepwise regression procedure, were selected for discriminant analyses. The sample consisted of 50 consecutive patients who underwent either ventral (n = 10) or posterolateral (n = 40) spondylodesis with or without posterior instrumentation. Their average age was 44.9 years (SD = 12.9) with an average duration of pain of 8.6 years (SD = 8.8). Nearly half of the patients had had previous spine surgery. Follow-up data indicate that about half of the patients show a beneficial outcome in terms of quality-of-life measures. Discriminant analyses suggest that poor presurgical functional capacity and an unclear finding in the physical examination before surgery contribute to our knowledge about patients who are likely to show continuous pain and poor functional capacity after surgery.     

A case study of expert judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts

In this case study of economists' forecasts concerning economic downturn, we examine key issues concerning the psychology of prediction and the controversy surrounding the value of expertise in forecasting. We examine when experts' knowledge promotes forecast accuracy and whether biases found in psychological studies (including underutilization of relevant base rates and tendencies to extreme prediction) occur in these economic forecasts. Experts' forecasts were compared to forecasts derived from base-rate models that relied on the historical frequencies of economic downturns. The performance patterns of the experts and models crossed over the forecast horizon. Experts outperformed models in shorter-term forecasting, whereas models outperformed experts in longer-term forecasting. These results highlight the abilities and limits of experts and models in prediction and the sources of their inaccuracy.     

儿童运动行距预测能力的发展及影响因素

采用计算机软件控制实验,以三种不同运动速度、四种不同运动行距组合呈现的光点运动为刺激物,每次光点在暴露运动一段行程后进入遮蔽,要求儿童判断光点到达目标位置时按键反应。主要结果表明：（１）儿童运动行距预测能力的发展表现为５─８岁和１２─１９岁两个加速期及８─１２岁一个过渡期的发展模式。但在过渡期内,儿童的预测误差偏向有显著变化;（２）客体运动速度对儿童运动行距预测操作精度有显著影响,慢速下精度较高;（３）客体运动行距、被试性别并不影响儿童的行距预测操作;（４）５岁、１２岁与１９岁儿童多倾向于超前反应。     

Gender and its contribution to the prediction of cognitive abilities at 5 years

Gender-related differences in the prediction of five year-olds' cognitive abilities from measures of distal environment, proximal environment and infant test scores were examined in a random sample of 93 boys and 90 girls. Distal environmental data included maternal IQ, maternal and paternal education. Proximal environmental data included two variables derived from the Home Screening Questionnaire: the Home Questions and the Toy Checklist. The Bayley MDI was administered at age 13 months, whereas WPPSI-R was used as cognitive outcome measure at age 5 years. The relationship between paternal education and child IQ, and between proximal environmental variables and child IQ was significantly stronger for boys than for girls. The associations between proximal environment and IQ in boys, were accounted for by the distal environmental variables. Bayley MDI correlated significantly higher with girls' IQ compared to boys' IQ. Findings are discussed in terms of parental gender-differentiated socialization processes.     

预期错误与急性应激对不同强度恐惧记忆提取消退的影响

在条件性恐惧记忆再巩固模型下, 预期错误被证明是引发记忆不稳定的必要条件, 但其在不同强度恐惧记忆下的作用尚不明确。对于高强度可能导致的提取无效, 缺乏相应的探索以寻找解决办法, 而应激(stress)在其中发挥的作用值得探索。本研究考察人类被试中, 预期错误在不同强度恐惧记忆下的作用, 以及提取之后施加外源性应激对于消退进程的影响。结果发现, 对于较弱的恐惧记忆, 单个预期错误提取后消退可显著抑制恐惧自发恢复; 而对于较强恐惧记忆, 单个预期错误不能提取恐惧记忆进入再巩固, 已消退的记忆还会复发; 且在该种情况下, 如果在提取后施加外源性急性应激, 会进一步增大恐惧恢复。     

黑暗人格特质与知识共享敌意的关系：员工关系和人际信任的链式中介作用

为了考察黑暗人格、员工关系、人际信任与知识共享敌意之间的关系,研究基于“特质-心理状态-行为”模型,采用问卷对307名企业员工进行调查研究。结果表明：（1）黑暗人格能显著负向预测情感性关系,显著正向预测工具性关系和知识共享敌意;（2）情感性关系显著正向预测人际信任,人际信任显著负向预测知识共享敌意;工具性关系显著正向预测知识共享敌意;（3）情感性关系和人际信任在黑暗人格与知识共享敌意之间起链式中介作用;工具性关系在黑暗人格与知识共享敌意之间起中介作用。     

童年期抑郁情绪发展的异质性与可预测性:2年追踪研究

以儿童抑郁量表为研究工具,对小学3到4年级771名儿童进行了2年的追踪研究。采用潜类别增长模型和终端结局潜发展模型,分别考察了童年期儿童抑郁情绪发展的亚群组类型,以及儿童抑郁情绪的发展特征对观察期结束时抑郁情绪的预测作用。结果表明：（1）童年期儿童的抑郁情绪发展呈现出三种不同的亚类型,即抑郁高风险组、抑郁低风险组和抑郁自愈组,各类型组人数比例分别为9.6%、53.4%和36.8%;（2）童年期儿童抑郁情绪的初始水平及其发展变化率均可以显著预测观察期结束时的抑郁情绪状况。童年期儿童抑郁情绪的早期监测工作有着重要的实践意义。     

Driver trust in and training for advanced driver assistance systems in Real-World driving

Two-hundred and twenty-three participants completed an online survey regarding their experiences with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) on their personal vehicles, with focus on 1) drivers’ trust in 13 ADAS technologies, and 2) perceived effectiveness of currently used methods of training. Eighteen drivers participated in focus groups designed to probe more deeply into survey responses. Results of the survey showed that participant ratings of trust increased significantly with longer vehicle ownership, but participants who experienced unexpected ADAS technology behavior rated their trust over time significantly lower on ADAS technologies with the exception of rear collision avoidance. The majority (75.8%) of participants reported receiving some ADAS instruction at their vehicle dealership, but only 16.6% indicated it was formal. Participants who received formalized training reported it to be significantly more effective than those who received informal overviews of their systems. Use of trial and error and the owner’s manual were the most frequently reported methods of learning outside of dealership training. Responses indicated that the lack of content tailored to trim-specific vehicle features in owner’s manuals was a barrier to effective use.