Examining Nonnormal Latent Variable Distributions for Non-Ignorable Missing Data

Missing not at random (MNAR) modeling for non-ignorable missing responses usually assumes that the latent variable distribution is a bivariate normal distribution. Such an assumption is rarely verified and often employed as a standard in practice. Recent studies for “complete” item responses (i.e., no missing data) have shown that ignoring the nonnormal distribution of a unidimensional latent variable, especially skewed or bimodal, can yield biased estimates and misleading conclusion. However, dealing with the bivariate nonnormal latent variable distribution with present MNAR data has not been looked into. This article proposes to extend unidimensional empirical histogram and Davidian curve methods to simultaneously deal with nonnormal latent variable distribution and MNAR data. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the consequence of ignoring bivariate nonnormal distribution on parameter estimates, followed by an empirical analysis of “don’t know” item responses. The results presented in this article show that examining the assumption of bivariate nonnormal latent variable distribution should be considered as a routine for MNAR data to minimize the impact of nonnormality on parameter estimates.     

Eye Movements in Strategic Choice

In risky and other multiattribute choices, the process of choosing is well described by random walk or drift diffusion models in which evidence is accumulated over time to threshold. In strategic choices, level‐k and cognitive hierarchy models have been offered as accounts of the choice process, in which people simulate the choice processes of their opponents or partners. We recorded the eye movements in 2 × 2 symmetric games including dominance‐solvable games like prisoner's dilemma and asymmetric coordination games like stag hunt and hawk–dove. The evidence was most consistent with the accumulation of payoff differences over time: we found longer duration choices with more fixations when payoffs differences were more finely balanced, an emerging bias to gaze more at the payoffs for the action ultimately chosen, and that a simple count of transitions between payoffs—whether or not the comparison is strategically informative—was strongly associated with the final choice. The accumulator models do account for these strategic choice process measures, but the level‐k and cognitive hierarchy models do not. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

《中国青少年心理健康素质调查表》的区分效度研究

采用《中国青少年心理健康素质调查表》调查了天津市425名正常和115名有心理问题大学生的心理健康素质,结果表明：正常组大学生的人际素质、个性素质、自我、应对风格和适应等分量表得分都高于有心理问题组大学生且具有显著差异,而动力系统、认知风格、归因风格分量表得分差异不显著。比较分析研究结果说明《中国青少年心理健康素质调查表》在区分正常和有心理问题大学生的心理健康素质方面可靠、有效。     

The distribution matters: two types of sample-size tasks

Different studies on how well people take sample size into account have found a wide range of solution rates. In a recent review, Sedlmeier and Gigerenzer (1997) suggested that a substantial part of the variation in results can be explained by the fact that experimenters have used two different types of sample-size tasks, one involving frequency distributions and the other sampling distributions. This suggestion rested on an analysis of studies that, with one exception, did not systematically manipulate type of distribution. In the research reported in this paper, well-known sample-size tasks were used to examine the hypothesis that frequency distribution versions of sample-size tasks yield higher solution rates than corresponding sampling distribution versions. In Study 1, a substantial difference between solution rates for the two types of task was found. Study 2 replicated this finding and ruled out an alternative explanation for it, namely, that the solution rate for sampling distribution tasks was lower because the information they contained was harder to extract than that in frequency distribution tasks. Finally, in Study 3 an attempt was made to reduce the gap between the solution rates for the two types of tasks by giving participants as many hints as possible for solving a sampling distribution task. Even with hints, the gap in performance remained. A new computational model of statistical reasoning specifies cognitive processes that might explain why people are better at solving frequency than sampling distribution tasks. Copyright© 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Explications causales normatives dans la distribution de sanctions professionnelles injustes

This research explores the degree of acceptability of the reasons given by a team leader to explain the unfair sanctions he/she distributes to his/her subordinates. Fifteen male high level managers leading team leaders, and 61 employees (30 women and 31 men) responded to a questionnaire in which they had to assess the desirability of the reasons given by a team leader for which he/she unfairly punished his subordinates: it might be either getting angry with them despite their good work (negative sanction) or, on the contrary, refraining intervention when they made mistakes (positive sanction). The results indicate a disaccountability of both the receiver and the distributor of the sanction, with, instead, the highlighting of contextual determinants, especially in case of negative sanction. There is also an influence of the direction of the sanction (positive vs. negative) on the stable/unstable component of the instance chosen as explanatory. These results are discussed on a theoretical level and perspectives of applications are proposed.     

论荀子的性情观

在近年出土的战国楚简中,“性”和“情”及其表达的思想特别引人注目,这不能不使我们重新思考传统文献特别是《荀子》中“性”“情”思想的含义。荀子论性,一面认同性乃自然成就,一如白纸;一面又认为它既有恶的倾向,又有善的倾向。荀子论情,是把它放在后天的位置上,并赋予广泛的内容,使之具有善恶一体、两端相对的特征。荀子论性情关系,一个在先,一个在后,经由心的统摄而联为一体,没有性,情无所出,没有情,性无由见。荀子的所谓性恶论,更准确地说应该是情恶论,这一层应该引起特别的注意。     

目标焦点监控下目标信息的建构与整合

探讨文本阅读过程目标焦点监控下读者对目标信息的建构与整合。采用移动窗口技术,要求被试阅读24篇含有主人公目标的记叙文,设计了子目标未实现、子目标曲折实现或子目标直接实现三种条件,对不同条件下目标启动句阅读时间进行分析。实验1对子目标曲折实现与子目标未实现两种条件下目标启动句阅读时间进行比较,结果表明,曲折实现条件下目标启动句阅读时间长于未实现条件下目标启动句的阅读时间,说明在没有共振的情况下,目标启动句也可以激活先前的目标信息引发目标整合。实验2比较在子目标曲折实现与子目标直接实现条件对目标启动句阅读时间,以探讨在目标焦点条件下是否对相关信息进行追随性建构,结果表明,曲折实现条件下目标启动句阅读时间与直接实现条件下目标启动句的阅读时间差异不显著,说明在目标焦点监控下可以发生阅读信息的追随性建构。本实验结果初步证明,阅读不同文本信息可能会引发不同的信息加工活动,建构主义理论与记忆基础文本加工理论都只是说明了文本阅读信息加工的一个侧面。     

师范生心理素质评价体系的研究

用经过信度和效度检验的量表研究师范生的心理素质,表明师范生心理素质内涵丰富,包含人多内容,不同成分有着不同的贡献率,其中具有相对突出的重要成分是心理健康水平,人格特征,认知方式、元认知、智力和教育实践和知识。     

Bayesian estimation of a multilevel IRT model using gibbs sampling

In this article, a two-level regression model is imposed on the ability parameters in an item response theory (IRT) model. The advantage of using latent rather than observed scores as dependent variables of a multilevel model is that it offers the possibility of separating the influence of item difficulty and ability level and modeling response variation and measurement error. Another advantage is that, contrary to observed scores, latent scores are test-independent, which offers the possibility of using results from different tests in one analysis where the parameters of the IRT model and the multilevel model can be concurrently estimated. The two-parameter normal ogive model is used for the IRT measurement model. It will be shown that the parameters of the two-parameter normal ogive model and the multilevel model can be estimated in a Bayesian framework using Gibbs sampling. Examples using simulated and real data are given.     

A Bayesian predictive analysis of test scores

In the classical test theory, a high-reliability test always leads to a precise measurement. However, when it comes to the prediction of test scores, it is not necessarily so. Based on a Bayesian statistical approach, we predicted the distributions of test scores for a new subject, a new test, and a new subject taking a new test. Under some reasonable conditions, the predicted means, variances, and covariances of predicted scores were obtained and investigated. We found that high test reliability did not necessarily lead to small variances or covariances. For a new subject, higher test reliability led to larger predicted variances and covariances, because high test reliability enabled a more accurate prediction of test score variances. Regarding a new subject taking a new test, in this study, higher test reliability led to a large variance when the sample size was smaller than half the number of tests. The classical test theory is reanalyzed from the viewpoint of predictions and some suggestions are made.