Addressing the “Replication Crisis”: Using Original Studies to Design Replication Studies with Appropriate Statistical Power

Psychology is undergoing a replication crisis. The discussion surrounding this crisis has centered on mistrust of previous findings. Researchers planning replication studies often use the original study sample effect size as the basis for sample size planning. However, this strategy ignores uncertainty and publication bias in estimated effect sizes, resulting in overly optimistic calculations. A psychologist who intends to obtain power of .80 in the replication study, and performs calculations accordingly, may have an actual power lower than .80. We performed simulations to reveal the magnitude of the difference between actual and intended power based on common sample size planning strategies and assessed the performance of methods that aim to correct for effect size uncertainty and/or bias. Our results imply that even if original studies reflect actual phenomena and were conducted in the absence of questionable research practices, popular approaches to designing replication studies may result in a low success rate, especially if the original study is underpowered. Methods correcting for bias and/or uncertainty generally had higher actual power, but were not a panacea for an underpowered original study. Thus, it becomes imperative that 1) original studies are adequately powered and 2) replication studies are designed with methods that are more likely to yield the intended level of power.     

Career exploration via cooperative education and lifespan occupational choice

Career exploration by Antioch College students who graduated between 1946 and 1955 (N=73) was studied to determine relationships between the occupational categories of cooperative education jobs taken in college (obtained from a campus archive) and subsequent work histories (obtained from surveying the graduates at about 70 years). Five hypotheses were tested. Results supported four of the hypotheses, with partial support for the fifth. Co-op jobs taken by the sample represented each of 23 occupational classifications, and most graduates took post-graduate jobs in occupational functions and contexts they had explored as co-op students. High levels of individuality in use of the co-op program and in career paths were found. Four co-op-to-career patterns were described, based on the degree to which functions and contexts were explored during college and career; a case study was included to exemplify each pattern. Gender differences were revealed in the patterns, but not the group data. Job context was particularly important in defining these patterns. Implications for research and practice were discussed tentatively, however given the lack of a control group, characteristics of the study sample, and particularities of the historical era studied, the ability to generalize beyond the study sample is limited.     

工作中心度的作用及其与领导行为的关系研究

本研究在理论分析的基础上,探讨了工作中心度对职业生涯规划的作用,并进一步分析了以工作中心度为因变变量(contingent variable)的领导行为的有效性。通过问卷调查法对233位企业员工进行测量。结果发现:工作中心度高的员工对于他们的职业生涯会有更好的规划;应根据员工不同程度的工作中心度采取不同的领导行为,后者有利于员工更好地规划自己的职业生涯。     

Judgments of mean speed and predictions of route choice

How are driving speeds integrated when speeds vary along a route? In a first study, we examined heuristic processes used in judgments of mean speed when the mean speeds on parts of the trip varied. The judgments deviated systematically from objective mean speeds because the distances driven at different speeds were given more weight than travel time spent on the different distances. The second study showed that when there was a 10–15 min pause during a travel the effect on the mean speed decrease was underestimated for driving speeds of 90 km/h and higher. In the third study, the objective mean speeds and the subjective biased mean speed judgments were used to predict choices between routes with different speed limits. The results showed that subjective judgments predicted decisions to maximize mean speed significantly better than objective mean speeds. Finally, some applied and basic research implications of the results were discussed.     

Hierarchy and scope of planning in subject–verb agreement production

Two subject–verb agreement error elicitation studies tested the hierarchical feature-passing account of agreement computation in production and three timing-based alternatives: linear distance to the head noun, semantic integration, and a combined effect of both (a scope of planning account). In Experiment 1, participants completed subject noun phrase (NP) stimuli consisting of a head NP followed by two prepositional phrase (PP) modifiers, where the first PP modified the first NP, and the second PP modified one of the two preceding NPs. Semantic integration between the head noun and the local noun within each PP was held constant across structures. The mismatch error pattern showed an effect of linear distance to the head noun and no influence of hierarchical distance. In Experiment 2, participants completed NP PP PP stimuli in which both PPs modified the head noun, and both the order of the two PPs and the local nouns’ degree of semantic integration with the head noun were varied. The pattern of mismatch errors reflected a combination of semantic integration and linear distance to the head noun. These studies indicate that agreement processes are strongly constrained by grammatical-level scope of planning, with local nouns planned closer to the head having a greater chance of interfering with agreement computation.     

判断与决策中的规划谬误

规划谬误是指人们在估计未来任务的完成时间时, 倾向于过度乐观, 低估任务完成时间的一种现象。规划谬误的心理机制主要包括规划谬误理论和记忆偏差理论。规划谬误的影响因素主要有认知因素、动机因素、个体的经验水平、目标任务的性质等。规划谬误的应对策略主要有与过去的经验相联系、从第三人称视角进行估计、任务分解及时间分配。未来的研究主要从规划谬误与策略性误解、乐观偏差、过分自信的关系, 规划谬误的产生根源、规划谬误的跨文化研究、规划谬误的研究范围及应用领域等方面进一步探讨。     

年幼儿童的尺寸匹配误差现象

近十年来,尺寸匹配误差作为年幼儿童生活中的一种常见的尺寸误用现象逐渐受到了一些研究者的关注。现有研究主要集中在尺寸匹配误差的特点、出现频率和产生原因等方面。抑制控制的失败、神经通路的协调失败、“计划-控制”模型和“感觉-行动”模型、功能性推理偏好以及身体意识发展的不成熟等观点能够对某些类型的尺寸匹配误差现象做出解释。未来的研究应从进一步深入探讨尺寸匹配误差与假装的区别、完善研究方法以及跨文化研究的开展几方面进行。     

口语句子产生中词汇选择的计划单元：来自大中小学生的比较研究

采用图-词干扰范式,要求被试口语产生包含三个名词的句子,通过检验句中不同位置的名词上的语义干扰效应, 探讨大中小学生言语产生中词汇选择的计划单元。结果发现,大学生和初中生都只在第一个名词上发现了言语产生潜伏期的语义干扰效应,表明其词汇选择的计划单元只限于第一个名词,支持了严格递进假设;小学生在三个名词上都没有发现潜伏期的语义干扰效应,表明小学生没有稳定地选择好第一个名词即开始发音。由此可见,词汇选择的计划单元大小是可变的,存在年龄上的个体差异,主要表现在小学生和初中生之间。     

Differential Effects of Strategic Planning on Community Change in Two Urban Neighborhood Coalitions

Community coalitions represent a promising approach for addressing the interrelated and multiply- determined issues affecting urban neighborhoods of concentrated poverty. The literature suggests a number of community processes that may affect coalition efforts to change and improve communities. This study uses an interrupted time-series design to examine the effects of a strategic planning intervention on community change in two urban neighborhoods in the Kansas City metropolitan area. Results showed that strategic planning was associated with increased rates of community change in the two urban neighborhood coalitions. Under appropriate conditions, such as the presence of consistent leadership, strategic planning may be a particularly effective mechanism for stimulating community change and addressing locally-determined goals in urban neighborhoods.