How do investors make predictions? Insights from analogical reasoning research

Previous work on investor decision making has focused almost exclusively on information specific to the company being judged. Consequently, every decision is viewed as a novel event, disconnected from the investor's existing knowledge. In this study, the analogical reasoning literature provides the theoretical support for arguing that investors frequently utilize existing knowledge as a basis for generating predictions about a company's future. The specific proposal is that investors transfer their existing knowledge via two different forms of analogical reasoning. The first, relational reasoning, is based primarily on structural correspondence between a novel company and an existing schema. The second, literal similarity reasoning, is based primarily on surface correspondence of a novel company and a previously encountered company. Our theoretical framework is tested in a study in which experienced investors predict the outcome of a novel company's strategy after reading about the experiences of other companies who implemented a similar strategy. The results are consistent with the occurrence of both relational and literal similarity reasoning, with relational reasoning emerging as the dominant approach to generating investors' predictions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

反馈时间、反馈类型和掩蔽类型对概率类别学习的影响

通过操纵反馈时间(即时,延迟)、反馈类型(简单,丰富)和掩蔽类型(塔罗牌,空白矩形),考察概率类别学习的学习机制。结果发现:(1)被试的学习成绩在即时反馈条件下显著优于在延迟反馈条件下;(2)在即时反馈条件下,仅给予简单反馈,被试虽能出色地完成天气预报任务,但是不能正确地判断卡片预测晴天的概率,倾向内隐学习;(3)在其他条件下,被试能正确地判断卡片预测晴天的概率以及各卡片在天气预报任务中预测天气的重要程度,表明被试能外显地意识到这些线索的作用。综上,概率类别学习采用的是双系统学习机制,既依赖内隐学习,又依赖外显学习。     

Time-limited effects of emotional arousal on item and source memory

Two experiments investigated the time-limited effects of emotional arousal on consolidation of item and source memory. In Experiment 1, participants memorized words (items) and the corresponding speakers (sources) and then took an immediate free recall test. Then they watched a neutral, positive, or negative video 5, 35, or 50?min after learning, and 24 hours later they took surprise memory tests. Experiment 2 was similar to Experiment 1 except that (a) a reality monitoring task was used; (b) elicitation delays of 5, 30, and 45?min were used; and (c) delayed memory tests were given 60?min after learning. Both experiments showed that, regardless of elicitation delay, emotional arousal did not enhance item recall memory. Second, both experiments showed that negative arousal enhanced delayed item recognition memory only at the medium elicitation delay, but not in the shorter or longer delays. Positive arousal enhanced performance only in Experiment 1. Third, regardless of elicitation delay, emotional arousal had little effect on source memory. These findings have implications for theories of emotion and memory, suggesting that emotion effects are contingent upon the nature of the memory task and elicitation delay.     

数量对时间知觉的影响-来自抽象数量和实际数量的证据

本研究采用抽象数量和实际数量叠加的方式呈现刺激,进一步探讨数量对时间知觉的影响。两个实验都运用时间的系列比较任务,以抽象数量和实际数量这两种数量的一致和不一致为条件,将阿拉伯数字和其字体大小叠加及阿拉伯数字和其呈现个数叠加的方式系列呈现在屏幕中央,要求被试比较判断刺激呈现的时间长短。结果显示被试均依靠实际数量的大小判断时间长短,而似乎忽略了抽象数量的存在。这一结果表明实际数量对时间知觉的影响要比抽象数量大,支持并扩展了数量理论。     

Time counts: Bidirectional interaction between time and numbers in human adults

Number is known for influencing time processing, but to what extent time influences number in human adults is unclear. We investigated possible bidirectional interactions (number on time and time on number) using a novel Stroop-like task; participants compared numbers or temporal durations in congruent (larger number presented for longer duration) or incongruent conditions (smaller number presented for longer duration). Time and number tasks were presented in different blocks (Experiment 1) or within the same block of trials with task instructions provided at the offset of the stimuli (Experiment 2). Analyses of response times (RTs) and their distribution revealed that number affected time from early RTs, and time affected number at late RTs – an asymmetry observed only when time and number tasks were presented in separate blocks. Thus, carefully chosen tasks and appropriate data analysis can reveal bidirectionality between time and number, consistent with shared magnitude or decision mechanisms.     

A Review and Meta‐Analysis Examining Conceptual and Operational Definitions of Problematic Internet Use

This study examined different conceptual and operational definitions of problematic Internet use (PIU). 3 perspectives of PIU are described along with a meta‐analytic review (K = 112) conducted to explore the implications stemming from how PIU is measured. The results offer evidence to support the construct validity of measures developed from the impulse control disorder and relationship resource deficits traditions but raise questions about substance dependence measures of PIU. Additionally, there were small but noteworthy differences in the associations between PIU and key antecedents and outcomes that could be attributed to PIU measurement tradition. Suggestions for developing a more robust body of scholarship on PIU are offered.     

Early Change Trajectories in Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Binge-Eating Disorder

Rapid response is considered the most well-established outcome predictor across treatments of binge-eating disorder (BED), including cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). This study sought to identify latent trajectories of early change in CBT and compare them to common rapid response classifications. In a multicenter randomized trial, 86 adults with BED (DSM-IV) or subsyndromal BED provided weekly self-reports of binge eating over the first 4 weeks of CBT, which were analyzed to predict binge eating, depression, and body mass index at posttreatment, 6-, and 18-month follow-up. Using latent growth mixture modeling, three patterns of early change—including moderate and low decreasing—as well as low stable binge eating were identified, which significantly predicted binge-eating remission at 6-month follow-up. Other classifications of rapid response based on Receiver Operating Characteristics curve analyses or on the literature (≥ 10% reduction in binge eating at week 1, ≥ 70% reduction in binge eating at week 4) only predicted posttreatment remission or overall depression, respectively. Latent change trajectories, but not other rapid response classifications, predicted binge-eating frequency over time. A fine-grained analysis of change over the first 4 weeks of CBT for BED revealed different trajectories of early change in binge eating that led to an improved prediction of binge-eating outcome, compared to that of common rapid response classifications. Thorough monitoring of early change trajectories during treatment may have clinical utility.     

Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.     

Intentional binding coincides with explicit sense of agency

Sense of agency, a feeling of generating actions and events by oneself, stems from action–outcome congruence. An implicit marker of sense of agency is intentional binding, which is compression of subjective temporal interval between action and outcome. We investigated relationships between intentional binding and explicit sense of agency. Participants pressed a key triggering auditory (Experiment 1) or visual outcome (Experiment 2) that occurred after variable delays. In each trial, participants rated their agency over the outcome and estimated the keypress–outcome temporal interval. Results showed that delays decreased agency ratings and intentional binding. There was inter-individual correlation between sensitivities to outcome delay (i.e., regression slope) of agency rating and intentional binding in the auditory but not visual domain. Importantly, we found intra-individual correlations between agency rating and intentional binding on a trial-by-trial basis in both outcome modalities. These results suggest that intentional binding coincides with explicit sense of agency.     

A standard conceptual framework for the study of subjective time

Research on the mental representation of time (‘subjective time’) has provided broad insights into the nature of time perception and temporal processing. As the field comprises different scientific disciplines, such as psychology, philosophy, and neuroscience, studies differ with regard to the basic terms and concepts used. For this reason, research on subjective time lacks a coherent conceptual system. We argue that research in the field of subjective time should aim at establishing such a system, i.e., a more standardized terminology, in order to strengthen its theoretical basis and to support an efficient communication of results. Based on key empirical findings and concepts that are commonly (but inconsistently) used in the literature, we argue for a conceptual framework for the study of subjective time that differentiates between three types of mental representations of time: basic temporal processing, time perception in terms of passage, and time perception in terms of duration.