时变效应模型及在密集追踪数据分析中的应用

密集追踪数据通常蕴含了心理过程的详细变化信息,反映了某些心理的复杂变化过程。时变效应模型用函数替代恒定的系数,可描述密集追踪数据中随时间推移心理的动态变化过程和时变效应,是分析复杂心理过程的有效方法。在介绍时变效应模型的原理后,通过模拟研究考察模型的表现,结果显示:(1)样本量增加可降低函数估计的误差;(2)惩罚样条法的节点数选择与函数的复杂度有关,函数越复杂,所需节点越多;(3)样本量与节点数对函数估计误差的交互效应不显著。进一步应探讨测量次数、数据分布形态、数据缺失等如何影响模型的表现。     

Multi‐set factor analysis by means of Parafac2

We consider multi‐set data consisting of observations, k = 1,…, K (e.g., subject scores), on J variables in K different samples. We introduce a factor model for the J × J covariance matrices , k = 1,…, K, where the common part is modelled by Parafac2 and the unique variances , k = 1,…, K, are diagonal. The Parafac2 model implies a common loadings matrix that is rescaled for each k, and a common factor correlation matrix. We estimate the unique variances by minimum rank factor analysis on for each k. The factors can be chosen orthogonal or oblique. We present a novel algorithm to estimate the Parafac2 part and demonstrate its performance in a simulation study. Also, we fit our model to a data set in the literature. Our model is easy to estimate and interpret. The unique variances, the factor correlation matrix and the communalities are guaranteed to be proper, and a percentage of explained common variance can be computed for each k. Also, the Parafac2 part is rotationally unique under mild conditions.     

Satisfaction et confort au travail. L’apport de la démarche implicative

A large body of research has investigated the psycho-organizational variables predicting satisfaction at work, but few studies have so far examined variables in the field of environmental psychology. Our study aims first to identify the impact of variables evaluating comfort at work (satisfaction with the work environment, attachment to the workplace) by comparing them with organizational variables known to be related to job satisfaction, and then to rank the relationships between these variables in a pseudo- implication sequence, based on statistical implicative analysis. The study involved 105 bank employees and confirms our theoretical model, showing that job satisfaction can be explained implicatively by the three other variables [(Comfort/Functionality => Control/privacy) => Workplace attachment] => job satisfaction.     

计划缺失设计——通过有意缺失让研究更高效

缺失值是社会科学研究中非常普遍的现象。全息极大似然估计和多重插补是目前处理缺失值最有效的方法。计划缺失设计利用特殊的实验设计有意产生缺失值, 再用现代的缺失值处理方法来完成统计分析, 获得无偏的统计结果。计划缺失设计可用于横断面调查减少(或增加)问卷长度和纵向调查减少测量次数, 也可用于提高测量有效性。常用的计划缺失设计有三式设计和两种方法测量。     

A Monte Carlo evaluation of masked visual analysis in response‐guided versus fixed‐criteria multiple‐baseline designs

We developed masked visual analysis (MVA) as a structured complement to traditional visual analysis. The purpose of the present investigation was to compare the effects of computer‐simulated MVA of a four‐case multiple‐baseline (MB) design in which the phase lengths are determined by an ongoing visual analysis (i.e., response‐guided) versus those in which the phase lengths are established a priori (i.e., fixed criteria). We observed an acceptably low probability (less than .05) of false detection of treatment effects. The probability of correctly detecting a true effect frequently exceeded .80 and was higher when: (a) the masked visual analyst extended phases based on an ongoing visual analysis, (b) the effects were larger, (c) the effects were more immediate and abrupt, and (d) the effects of random and extraneous error factors were simpler. Our findings indicate that MVA is a valuable combined methodological and data‐analysis tool for single‐case intervention researchers.     

Online measurement of mental representations of complex spatial decision problems: Comparison of CNET and hard laddering

This paper introduces the online Causal Network Elicitation Technique (CNET), as a technique for measuring components of mental representations of choice tasks and compares it with the more common technique of online ‘hard’ laddering (HL). While CNET works in basically two phases, one in open question format and one as guided linking of attributes and benefits, HL works completely structured with revealed attributes and benefits. Mental representations of two activity travel tasks were collected with both techniques among members of a nationwide Dutch household panel. The results confirm the hypothesis that the revealed format of variables in HL has an effect on the indication of variables as the elicited mental representations are almost twice as big for HL than for CNET. Furthermore, it turned out that CNET is more sensitive in measuring shifts among attributes in the mental representations for situational changes of the activity-travel task.     

Relationship between collectivism and corruption in American and Chinese books: A historical perspective

Previous research on the relationship between collectivism and corruption has not investigated their co‐variation over time. In this study, we use Google Ngram Viewer to track the frequency of words related to collectivism and corruption in American books (1800–2000) and in Chinese Books (1970–2008). The results demonstrate that a positive association between the usage of these terms during the periods in both Chinese and American books, with changes in words related to collectivism preceding changes in words related to corruption in American books. The theoretical and practical implications are also discussed.     

Secularity and Irreligion in Cross‐National Context: A Nonlinear Approach

As part of the conversation about the characteristics and scope of secularization in contemporary society, the implications of low levels of self‐defined atheism and explicit rejection of religion in nations with low levels of religious beliefs are not yet sufficiently explored. In response, this study uses aggregated data from the World Values Survey, the European Values Study, and Cross‐National Socio‐Economic and Religion Data from the Association of Religion Data Archives to investigate the relationships between nonbelief, atheism, and lack of confidence in churches or religious organizations. Regression findings show a concave curvilinear relationship between secularity (measured as the percentage of the population that does not believe in God) and irreligion (measured as (1) the percentage of self‐defined atheists in a country and (2) the percentage of individuals in a country who have no confidence at all in religious organizations). In other words, this study suggests that nonbelief is associated with an increase in self‐defined atheism and the lack of confidence in religious organizations, but that this effect wanes the more secular a society is. The findings further highlight the complexity of nonreligiosity and imply that a linear association cannot be assumed between measures of secularization, secularity, and irreligion.     

A New Multilevel CART Algorithm for Multilevel Data with Binary Outcomes

The multilevel logistic regression model (M-logit) is the standard model for modeling multilevel data with binary outcomes. However, many assumptions and restrictions should be considered when applying this model for unbiased estimation. To overcome these limitations, we proposed a multilevel CART (M-CART) algorithm which combines the M-logit and single level CART (S-CART) within the framework of the expectation-maximization. Simulation results showed that the proposed M-CART provided substantial improvements on classification accuracy, sensitivity, and specific over the M-logit, S-CART, and single level logistic regression model when modeling multilevel data with binary outcomes. This benefit of using M-CART was consistently found across different conditions of sample size, intra-class correlation, and when relationships between predictors and outcomes were nonlinear and nonadditive.     

The Impact of Item Misspecification and Dichotomization on Class and Parameter Recovery in LCA of Count Data

Mixture analysis of count data has become increasingly popular among researchers of substance use, behavioral analysis, and program evaluation. However, this increase in popularity seems to have occurred along with adoption of some conventions in model specification based on arbitrary heuristics that may impact the validity of results. Findings from a systematic review of recent drug and alcohol publications suggested count variables are often dichotomized or misspecified as continuous normal indicators in mixture analysis. Prior research suggests that misspecifying skewed distributions of continuous indicators in mixture analysis introduces bias, though the consequences of this practice when applied to count indicators has not been studied. The present work describes results from a simulation study examining bias in mixture recovery when count indicators are dichotomized (median split; presence vs. absence), ordinalized, or the distribution is misspecified (continuous normal; incorrect count distribution). All distributional misspecifications and methods of categorizing resulted in greater bias in parameter estimates and recovery of class membership relative to specifying the true distribution, though dichotomization appeared to improve class enumeration accuracy relative to all other specifications. Overall, results demonstrate the importance of accurately modeling count indicators in mixture analysis, as misspecification and categorizing data can distort study outcomes.