Seeing is believing: Priors,trust, and base rate neglect

Kahneman and Tversky (1973) described an effect they called ‘insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes’, later dubbed base rate neglect, which describes people’s tendency to underweight prior information in favor of new data. As probability theory requires that prior probabilities be taken into account, via Bayes’ theorem, the fact that most people fail to do so has been taken as evidence of human irrationality and, by others, of a mismatch between our cognitive processes and the questions being asked (Cosmides & Tooby, 1996). In contrast to both views, we suggest that simplistic Bayesian updating using base rates is not necessarily rational. To that end, we present experiments in which base rate neglect is often the right strategy, and show that people’s base rate usage varies systematically as a function of the extent to which the data that make up a base rate are perceived as trustworthy.     

儿童忽视与同伴接受：消极社会行为的中介作用

运用问卷调查法和同伴提名法,考察小学4、5年级共503名儿童的消极社会行为（攻击行为、退缩行为、受欺负行为）、同伴接受和儿童忽视间的关系。结果发现,儿童忽视与退缩行为、受欺负行为之间存在显著正相关,与攻击行为之间相关不显著;儿童忽视与同伴接受有显著负相关。忽视通过消极社会行为的两组中介变量作用于儿童的同伴接受。     

Context affects the interpretation of low but not high numerical probabilities: A hypothesis testing account of subjective probability

Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted either positively, suggesting the occurrence of the target event, or negatively, suggesting its non-occurrence. High numerical probabilities, however, are typically interpreted positively. We argue that the greater directional ambiguity of low numerical probabilities may make them more susceptible than high probabilities to contextual influences. Results from five experiments supported this premise, with perceived base rate affecting the interpretation of an event’s numerical posterior probability more when it was low than high. The effect is consistent with a confirmatory hypothesis testing process, with the relevant perceived base rate suggesting the directional hypothesis which people then test in a confirmatory manner.     

Risk Factors for the Occurrence of Child Abuse and Neglect

SUMMARY

A large, nationally representative database of child abuse and neglect cases was analyzed to identify demographic risk factors for the occurrence of different types of abuse and neglect. The analyses used the data collected in the second National Incidence Study of Child Abuse and Neglect (the NIS-2) concerning children who were harmed by abuse or neglect. Multiple-factor logistic models were developed to identify risk factors for the occurrence of abuse or neglect in six categories of maltreatment: physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional maltreatment, physical neglect, educational neglect, and multiple maltreatment. A key finding was that children in families with incomes under $15,000 per year were at far greater risk in every category of maltreatment. Also, older children were generally at greater risk in every category, and risk was related to family structure, family size, child's sex and race/ethnicity, and metropolitan status of the county. However, these relationships applied to only certain types of abuse or neglect or took different forms in different maltreatment categories. Interactions among risk factors were the rule rather than the exception. Findings emphasize the need for better coordination between human services and income support services to families. The results imply that risk assessment would be appreciably advanced by going beyond simple matrix approaches that independently consider different factors by developing assessment models that include interactions between different risk factors.     

The Severity of Childhood Abuse and Neglect in Relationship to Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Among Female Sex Workers in the Netherlands

In this article, the relationship between childhood abuse and neglect and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in adulthood is examined in a sample of 123 female indoor sex workers in the Netherlands. It was hypothesized that the severity of childhood abuse and neglect is associated with the severity of PTSD. In this study, a substantial number of sex workers had experienced abuse, neglect, or both during childhood. Furthermore, a substantial number suffered from PTSD. Results show significant differences between sex workers suffering from PTSD and sex workers not suffering from PTSD, in the extent to which they have experienced abuse or neglect. Logistic regression analysis shows emotional abuse contributes significantly to the prediction of PTSD. Our findings suggest that the high rate of PTSD among sex workers might be partially related to childhood experiences, indicating that a number of sex workers might be traumatized before entering sex work.     

Mirror reading of words and numbers: Practice and transfer effects

It remains unknown whether mirror reading represents a genuine text processing skill or is based on recognition of visual patterns. The present study attempts to determine whether (1) systematic practice with a particular mirrored typography also improves reading performance for other mirrored typographies, and whether (2) this transfer extends from lexical to numerical material and vice versa. The results show that short-term intensive practice with mirror-reversed words significantly improves reading performance not only for the trained typography but also for other mirrored typographies and mirror-reversed Arabic digits. Practice with mirror-reversed Arabic digits showed a mixed pattern of transfer effects with regard to other digit transformations and there were no transfer effects to lexical material. Hence, for lexical material, at least, improvement after training seems to be based on generalized skill with transfer effects beyond lexical material, rather than on mere improvement of visual recognition of the material used in training.     

Child physical abuse and neglect in Kenya,Zambia and the Netherlands: A cross‐cultural comparison of prevalence,psychopathological sequelae and mediation by PTSS

This study compared the prevalence of self‐reported childhood physical abuse and neglect and the associated psychopathological sequelae among Kenyan, Zambian, and Dutch university students. In addition, we sought to find out the differentiated role of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) in mediating the associations between childhood maltreatment experiences and psychopathology symptoms. The sample consisted of 862 university students from Kenya (n = 375), Zambia (n = 182), and The Netherlands (n = 305) who completed the Personal and Relationships Profile (PRP). Results showed that physical abuse was highly prevalent in Kenya (59%) and Zambia (40%), and that neglect was even more prevalent than physical abuse in Zambia and The Netherlands at 59%, 54%, and 42% for the Kenyan, Zambian, and Dutch samples respectively. Neglect was associated with psychopathological symptoms in all three samples, whereas physical abuse was associated with psychopathological sequelae in the Kenyan and Zambian samples only. PTSS mediated the association between neglect and psychopathology symptoms in the Dutch sample and between physical abuse and psychopathology symptoms in the Dutch and Kenyan samples. We conclude that physical abuse and neglect are associated with psychopathology symptoms independently of country and cultural context. However, the pathways through which physical abuse and neglect may lead to psychopathological sequelae may be dependent on perceptions of specific parental behavior in different sociocultural contexts.     

Exploring the personal and social context of female youth sex offenders

This study explored the personal and social context of young female sex offenders, probing their risk profiles for prospective treatment interventions. A convenience sample of eight young South African female sexual offenders participated in the study (black = 88%, Indian = 12%, age range = 14–20 years). They completed semi-structured interviews on their perceptions of the influences to commit a sexual offence. The data were thematically analysed. Emergent themes on factors associated with sexual offending included: peer influence, poor child monitoring, parental neglect, unproductive sexual health education, as well as insight into the participants’ maladaptive beliefs and distorted thinking.     

Radial bisection of words and lines in right‐brain‐damaged patients with spatial neglect

The bisection of lines positioned radially (with the two ends of the line close and far, with respect to the participant's body) has been less investigated than that of lines placed horizontally (with their two ends left and right, with respect to the body's midsagittal plane). In horizontal bisection, patients with left neglect typically show a rightward bias for both lines and words, greater with longer stimuli. As for radial bisection, available data indicate that neurologically unimpaired participants make a distal error, while results from right‐brain‐damaged patients with left spatial neglect are contradictory. We investigated the bisection of radially oriented words, with the prediction that, during bisection, linguistic material would be recoded to its canonical left‐to‐right format in reading, with the performance of neglect patients being similar to that for horizontal words. Thirteen right‐brain‐damaged patients (seven with left spatial neglect) and fourteen healthy controls were asked to manually bisect 40 radial and 40 horizontal words (5–10 letters), and 80 lines, 40 radial and 40 horizontal, of comparable length. Right‐brain‐damaged patients with spatial neglect exhibited a proximal bias in the bisection of short radial words, with the proximal part corresponding to the final right part of horizontally oriented words. This proximal error was not found in patients without neglect and healthy controls. For bisection, short radial words may be recoded to the canonical orthographic horizontal format, unveiling the impact of left neglect on radially oriented stimuli.