Causal Inference from Descriptions of Experimental and Non-Experimental Research: Public Understanding of Correlation-Versus-Causation

The human tendency to conflate correlation with causation has been lamented by various scientists (Kida, 2006; Stanovich, 2009), and vivid examples of it can be found in both the media and peer-reviewed literature. However, there is little systematic data on the extent to which individuals conflate correlation with causation. In three experiments, we presented people with one of four research vignettes generated from the combination of two independent variables: whether the vignette described an experimental or non-experimental design, and whether it revealed a positive or negative association. Upon reading their vignette, participants selected inferences that could be drawn from the findings. Participants drew causal inferences from non-experimental vignettes as often as they did from experimental vignettes, and more frequently for causal statements and directions of association that fit with intuitive notions than for those that did not. We discuss our findings in relation to other biases in human thinking.     

Reducing the Linear Perception of Nonlinearity: Use of a Physical Representation

Research shows that while judging accumulations of quantities over time (e.g., money in a bank account or CO₂ in Earth's atmosphere), people assume that the shape of the accumulation is similar to the shape of the inflow (i.e., people rely on a correlation heuristic). Relying on the correlation heuristic is particularly worrisome for Earth's climate, as judging the CO₂ accumulation according to its emissions (inflow) would underestimate the actual (nonlinear) increase. This misperception undermines the seriousness of climate problem and results in wait‐and‐see behavior. We report two experiments where the effectiveness of a physical representation is compared with graphical and text representations in reducing people's underestimation of nonlinear accumulation in different contexts and problems. A physical representation presents an accumulation using a picture that works as a metaphor. In the first experiment, participants drew the shape of an accumulation over time relying on physical or graphical representations in one of two contexts: carbon dioxide and marbles. Although the participants underestimated the accumulation in both contexts, underestimations were reduced in the physical representation compared with the graphical representation. In the second experiment, we extended the evaluation of physical representations against both text and graphical representations in two different climate problems (with linearly increasing or decreasing inflow). Again, underestimations of the accumulation were reduced in the physical representation compared with the other two representations, regardless of the nature of the problem. We discuss implications of using the physical representation for improving people's estimates of nonlinear CO₂ accumulation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

血液透析患者体重和血流量与透析充分性的因果关系分析

通过测定维持性血液透析患者的体重和在线血流量、采用在线尿素清除率监测（on-line clearance monitoring,OCM）法测Kt／V值及单室尿素动力模型DaugirdasⅡ公式计算Kt／V值的两种方法,探讨患者体重和血流量与透析充分性之间的因果关系。结论为两种方法测得的血液透析患者的体重和血流量均与Kt...     

Perceived association between diagnostic and non-diagnostic cues of women’s sexual interest: General Recognition Theory predictors of risk for sexual coercion

Young men’s errors in sexual perception have been linked to sexual coercion. The current investigation sought to explicate the perceptual and decisional sources of these social perception errors, as well as their link to risk for sexual violence. General Recognition Theory (GRT; [Ashby, F. G., & Townsend, J. T. (1986). Varieties of perceptual independence. Psychological Review, 93, 154-179]) was used to estimate participants’ ability to discriminate between affective cues and clothing style cues and to measure illusory correlations between men’s perception of women’s clothing style and sexual interest. High-risk men were less sensitive to the distinction between women’s friendly and sexual interest cues relative to other men. In addition, they were more likely to perceive an illusory correlation between women’s diagnostic sexual interest cues (e.g., facial affect) and non-diagnostic cues (e.g., provocative clothing), which increases the probability that high-risk men will misperceive friendly women as intending to communicate sexual interest. The results provide information about the degree of risk conferred by individual differences in perceptual processing of women’s interest cues, and also illustrate how translational scientists might adapt GRT to examine research questions about individual differences in social perception.     

中学组织气氛与教师工作满意度的相关分析

本研究在国内外相关研究的基础上,通过自编中学组织气氛量表调查分析中学组织气氛与其教师工作满意度的关系。结果表明学校组织气氛各因子与其教师工作满意度除人际关系因子外的各因子相关显著;回归分析进一步发现,学校组织气氛与教师工作满意度的工作性质、领导管理、薪水、进修晋升和物质条件等因子回归显著。     

回忆准备就绪程度的判断准确性与记忆成绩的相关

本研究采用3×3×2三因素混合实验设计(年龄、材料、性别),以|P-A|÷A做指标,对回忆准备就绪程度的判断准确性与记忆成绩之间的相关进行了研究。发现回忆准备就绪程度的判断准确性与记忆成绩的相关为-0.6199,达到了0.01显著性水平。同时,年级越低,监测准确性与记忆成绩之间的相关越高。回忆准备就绪程度判断的准确性在三项材料上存在差异,说明不同难度的材料对记忆监测与记忆成绩之间的相关有影响。回忆准备就绪程度判断的准确性与记忆成绩的相关存在性别差异,男生的相关值比女生要高。     

遗传与环境的相关及交互作用分析--兼评行为遗传学研究方法的新进展

遗传与环境的“相关”与“交互作用”这两个既有联系又相区别的概念的提出,使人们对传统的行为遗传学研究有了新的认识。该文在此分析的基础上,提出利用精巧的实验设计及分子遗传分析对两者进行考察的新方法,并对已有行为遗传学研究方法存在的局限与发展前景予以简要评述。     

心理表征的可视化途径：基于噪音的反向相关图像分类技术

社会心理学对图像的心理表征研究一直难以将心理活动的内容准确刻画出来。近10年来出现了一种新心理物理学方法——“反向相关图像分类技术”, 该技术假定观察者的反应与视觉噪音存在相关关系, 且反应是依照观察者的社会判断标准进行而非随机做出; 通过对其做出反应的相应噪音模式的足够次数的权重计算与视觉代码显现, 从而将观察者内在的评估特点可视化。该技术已在特质研究、种族和群际偏见等领域取得了一些成果, 但是未来仍需解决实验次数过多, 分离混杂的噪音以及被试的表现等问题, 才能获得更为真实的心理表征。     

内隐学习的主观测量标准

近40年来,验证知识的内隐性一直是内隐学习研究的焦点。传统三大范式常以自由言语报告或是迫选测验作为验证知识内隐性的外显指标,然而各种迹象表明,言语报告和迫选测验存在一定的局限性。由此,Dienes等人提出了内隐学习的主观测量。文章将从言语报告和追选测验的局限性着手,阐述主观测量诞生的必要性及其在衡量知识意识性上的效度。     

SYNCRETISM OR CORRELATION: TEILHARD AND TILLICH'S CONTRASTING METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO SCIENCE AND THEOLOGY

Abstract. I revisit Paul Tillich's theological methodology and contrast his practice of correlation with the syncretistic methodological practices of Pierre Teilhard de Chardin. I argue that the method of correlation, as referred to in Robert John Russell's 2001 Zygon article, fails to uphold Tillich's self‐limitation of his own methodology with regard to Tillich's insistence upon the theological circle. I assert that the theological circle, as taken from Tillich's Systematic Theology I, is a central facet within his methodology and that this often‐ignored concept needs to be resuscitated if one is to remain authentically Tillichian in one's approach to the science‐and‐theology dialogue.