Hindsight bias redefined: It’s about time

Four experiments introduced a new conceptual and methodological approach to hindsight bias, traditionally defined as the tendency to exaggerate the a priori predictability of outcomes after they become known. By examining likelihood estimates rooted to specific time points during an unfolding event sequence (videos and short text stories), judged both in foresight and hindsight, we conceptualized hindsight bias as a contrast between two “inevitability curves,” which plotted likelihood against time. Taking timing into account, we defined three new indicators of accuracy: linear accuracy (how well hindsight judgments capture the linear trend of foresight judgments over time), rate accuracy (how well hindsight judgments reflect the slope of foresight judgments over time), and temporal accuracy (how well hindsight judgments specify the overall timing of the full envelope of foresight judgments). Results demonstrated that hindsight judgments showed linear and rate accuracy, but were biased only in terms of lack of temporal accuracy. The oft-used catchphrase “knew it all along effect” was found to be a misnomer, in that participants were well aware in hindsight that their earlier foresight judgments reflected uncertainty. The current research therefore points to one way in which retrospective judgments can be considered biased, yet simultaneously suggests that considerable accuracy exists when people render such judgments.     

Conceptualization and measurement of temporal focus: The subjective experience of the past,present, and future

Temporal focus is the attention individuals devote to thinking about the past, present, and future, and the concept is important because it affects how people incorporate perceptions about past experiences, current situations, and future expectations into their attitudes, cognitions, and behavior. However, temporal focus has not been clearly defined nor situated in a nomological network of constructs. In addition, existing measures of temporal focus suffer from various shortcomings. In this paper, we advance the concept of temporal focus by critically examining its conceptualization, developing a new measure of temporal focus (Temporal Focus Scale; TFS), and evaluating the validity (i.e., construct, convergent, discriminant, nomological, and predictive validity) of the TFS across four studies. We conclude that understanding how individuals focus their attention toward the past, present, and future clarifies their responses to explicit and implicit temporal information, which suggests that a variety of research streams would benefit from incorporating the concept of temporal focus.     

Self processing in the brain: A paradigmatic fMRI case study with a professional singer

Understanding the mechanisms involved in perception and conception of oneself is a fundamental psychological topic with high relevance for psychiatric and neurological issues, and it is one of the great challenges in neuroscientific research. The paradigmatic single-case study presented here aimed to investigate different components of self- and other-processes and to elucidate corresponding neurobiological underpinnings. An eminent professional opera singer with profound performance experience has undergone functional magnetic resonance imaging and was exposed to excerpts of Mozart arias, sung by herself or another singer. The results indicate a distinction between self- and other conditions in cortical midline structures, differentially involved in self-related and self-referential processing. This lends further support to the assumption of cortical midline structures being involved in the neural processing of self-specific stimuli and also confirms the power of single case studies as a research tool.     

PTSD青少年对威胁图片注意偏向的时程特点及习惯化倾向

探讨创伤后应激障碍(post-traumatic stress disorder,PTSD)青少年(n=20)与创伤控制组(n=20)对威胁图片注意偏向的时间进程特点以及习惯化倾向.在线索提示任务中,图片的呈现时间为100ms、500ms和1250ms.研究表明:(1)在时间进程上,当图片呈现100ms时,创伤控制组对地震图存在注意警觉;当呈现时间为500ms时,两组被试对负性图和地震图存在注意回避;当呈现时间为1250ms时,PTSD组对负性图仍存在注意回避、对地震图的注意偏向消失,创伤控制组对负性图和地震图的注意偏向均消失.(2)在习惯化倾向上,当第六次呈现威胁图片时,PTSD组对负性图和地震图的注意偏向消失,而创伤控制组对负性图和地震图的注意回避仍未消失.     

事件提示和时间提示对新异干扰的影响—— 来自听视跨通道和听通道的证据

采用Oddball范式考察听视跨感觉通道和听感觉通道中“无关刺激”或“无关属性”的信号提示对新异干扰的影响。实验1和实验2分别比较了听视跨通道和听通道中时间事件提示、时间提示和事件提示三种条件。结果表明：(1)时间提示条件下新异干扰效应消失, 而事件提示条件下新异干扰效应仍存在。无关刺激意外变化引起的靶任务行为受损, 不仅与偏差刺激的小概率和新颖性有关, 而且与干扰刺激与靶子间提示信号关联有关, 这种提示关联中事件发生的提示功能比时间间隔的提示功能更为重要。(2)听通道下新异干扰与视听跨通道结果一致, 无关属性也会起到提示信号作用, 同样事件提示功能比时间提示功能更重要。     

Approaching Religious Guidelines for Chimera Policymaking

Recent developments in the use of cow egg cells to clone human somatic cells, and the grafting by researchers at several universities of human neurons into mice, bring the notion of the chimera, a mixture of several living organisms, from myth into reality. In his article “Cross‐Species Chimeras: Exploring a Possible Christian Perspective,” Neville Cobbe considers the religious arguments overlying the creation of human‐nonhuman chimeras. In my commentary I focus on the distinction between germline‐ and tissue transplant‐related chimeric techniques implicit in Cobbe's essay and argue that the former poses more serious moral difficulties than the latter if the chimeric product is brought to term. The substantive view of the imago Dei, or image of God, serves as a scaffold by which to judge the permissibility of chimera creation using stem cell and other tissue implants. While useful for judging the rights of such artificially generated beings, I argue that specific criteria such as proportion of tissue uptake, mental capacity, and adherence with the organism's telos are more appropriately considered within a composite image of the living being reflecting its unique integrality. Human co‐creativity with the Divine will inevitably prompt attempts to generate medically useful chimeras. Religious dialogue, combined with the categories of religious moral argument appearing in Cobbe's essay, will help to establish the outline of feasible policy guidelines addressing the complexities inherent in the creation of chimeras.     

对变化/分割模型的检验(I)

用两个实验对变化／分割模型进行了检验。实验１控制目标时距和该时距内的填充数字系列,操纵数字系列的分割段数;实验２控制目标时距内的填充数字系列的间距,操纵目标时距及其中填充数字系列的分割段数,要求被试用再现法和多数估计法分别复制目标时距,并进行立即估计和延迟估计。结果显示：与存储容量模型和加工时间模型相比较,变化／分割模型对时间估计的解释具有更高的预测效度     

Reproductive issues in adults with cystic fibrosis: Implications for genetic counseling

This article reviews reproductive issues faced by the growing number of individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) who reach adulthood. Approximately 97–98% of males with CF are infertile and they may have an increased risk for genitourinary anomalies. Females with CF may experience delayed puberty, irregular menstrual cycles, and decreased fertility. Women with CF who have good clinical scores, good nutritional status, and normal lung volumes with mild to moderate airway obstruction, have a better chance for successful pregnancies. The role of the genetic counselor in counseling adults with CF is discussed and resources for CF adults are provided.     

Experiences extended across time: Evaluation of moments and episodes

Intuitions relating to outcomes extended over time are examined. Utility integration is proposed as a normative rule for the evaluation of extended episodes. In Experiment 1, subjects explicitly compared aversive experiences of varying durations. By several measures, disutility was a marginally decreasing function of episode duration, even for experiences that were thought to become increasingly aversive. This pattern is a qualitative violation of the integration rule. In Experiment 2, subjects made global evaluations of a hypothetical person's aversive experiences, on the basis of a series of subjective ratings of discomfort made at periodic intervals. The results showed an extreme sensitivity to improving or deteriorating trend and a striking neglect of duration. The final moments of an extended episode appear to exert a strong influence on the overall judgment. This leads to violations of monotonicity when adding some moments of moderate pain reduces judgments of global aversiveness.     

“Throwing Baby out with the Bath water#x201D;: Some Reflections on the Evolution of Reproductive Technology}

This article discusses section 156 of the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994 which prohibits the use of eggs from aborted female foetuses for the purposes of reproduction. I argue that the pre-legislative debates focus only on the biological relationship between the aborted foetus and any ensuing child and foreclose the possibility of useful discussion about the potential merits of such technology. Kristeva's theory of abjection has been used in order to elucidate the strength of feeling about the use of eggs from the expelled foetus. I suggest that the ‘yuk’ factor stems from the potential for the blurring of the boundaries between life and death. In addition, I suggest that the stress placed on the biological link means that the foetus is ascribed special properties not given to live donors. Woman's very crucial role in reproductive technologies is therefore erased. The article argues that there are very good reasons why the debate on the subject should remain open. At present women donors have to undergo highly intrusive procedures in order to give eggs and the process is not without its health risks. The use of eggs from aborted foetuses certainly raises important consent issues but these could be addressed by placing women at the centre of the decision making process, starting with the recognition that it is women and not foetuses who have the remit and responsibility for giving consent for the use of their genetic material. Moreover, there should be an acknowledgement that women are perfectly capable of making informed decisions about donation and of considering the potential implications of participating in egg donation. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.