Regression away from the mean: Theory and examples

Using a standard repeated measures model with arbitrary true score distribution and normal error variables, we present some fundamental closed-form results which explicitly indicate the conditions under which regression effects towards (RTM) and away from the mean are expected. Specifically, we show that for skewed and bimodal distributions many or even most cases will show a regression effect that is in expectation away from the mean, or that is not just towards but actually beyond the mean. We illustrate our results in quantitative detail with typical examples from experimental and biometric applications, which exhibit a clear regression away from the mean (‘egression from the mean’) signature. We aim not to repeal cautionary advice against potential RTM effects, but to present a balanced view of regression effects, based on a clear identification of the conditions governing the form that regression effects take in repeated measures designs.     

"When did I learn and when shall I act?": The developmental relationship between episodic future thinking and memory

This study investigated the development of the ability to reflect on one’s personal past and future. A total of 64 4- to 6-year-olds received tasks of delayed self-recognition, source memory, delay of gratification, and a newly developed task of future-oriented action timing. Although children’s performance on delayed self-recognition, source memory, and action timing improved with age, their performance on delay of gratification did not. Children’s errors in source memory and action timing were solely and strongly associated with each other in older children (5–6 years) even after controlling for age and verbal ability. Results are discussed in terms of mental time travel underlying episodic memory and future thinking that includes both the projection of oneself into the past and future and the appreciation of events’ temporal relations.     

Prior Divergence: Do Researchers and Participants Share the Same Prior Probability Distributions?

Do participants bring their own priors to an experiment? If so, do they share the same priors as the researchers who design the experiment? In this article, we examine the extent to which self‐generated priors conform to experimenters’ expectations by explicitly asking participants to indicate their own priors in estimating the probability of a variety of events. We find in Study 1 that despite being instructed to follow a uniform distribution, participants appear to have used their own priors, which deviated from the given instructions. Using subjects’ own priors allows us to account better for their responses rather than merely to test the accuracy of their estimates. Implications for the study of judgment and decision making are discussed.     

Future anhedonia and time discounting

The temporal location of an event influences the way people mentally represent that event. We suggest (a) that such representational differences can produce an affective forecasting error that we call future anhedonia, which is the belief that hedonic states will be less intense in the future than in the present, and (b) that future anhedonia plays a role in time discounting (i.e., the tendency to place a smaller present value on present events than on future events). Experiments 1a and 1b demonstrated that people are prone to future anhedonia, Experiments 2a and 2b ruled out artifactual alternatives, and Experiments 3a and 3b demonstrated that future anhedonia plays a role in time discounting. These studies suggest that one reason why people prefer to enjoy benefits in the present and pay costs in the future is that they do not realize how they will feel when those costs and benefits are actually experienced.     

Academic procrastination: The pattern and correlates of behavioural postponement

Using a series of computer-based assignments, we examined whether students’ submission patterns revealed a hyperbolic pattern of temporal discounting, such that few assignments are submitted far ahead of the deadline and submission of assignments accelerates at an increasing rate as the deadline becomes imminent. We further examined whether variables related to self-regulation – namely, self-reported procrastination, implementation intentions, say-do correspondence, and perceived academic control – correlated with behavioural postponement. Results revealed strong behavioural evidence of temporal discounting, especially among those who identified themselves as procrastinators. Among the self-regulation measures, only say-do correspondence consistently correlated with procrastination.     

Active (not passive) spatial imagery primes temporal judgements

In order to identify the cognitive processes associated with target tracking, a dual-task experiment was carried out in which participants undertook a dynamic multiple-object tracking task first alone and then again, concurrently with one of several secondary tasks, in order to investigate the cognitive processes involved. The research suggests that after designated targets within the visual field have attracted preattentive indexes that point to their locations in space, conscious processes, vulnerable to secondary visual and spatial task interference, form deliberate strategies beneficial to the tracking task, before tracking commences. Target tracking itself is realized by central executive processes, which are sensitive to any other cognitive demands. The findings are discussed in the context of integrating dynamic spatial cognition within a working memory framework.     

Temporal perception in joint action: This is MY action

Here we investigated the temporal perception of self- and other-generated actions during sequential joint actions. Participants judged the perceived time of two events, the first triggered by the participant and the second by another agent, during a cooperative or competitive interaction, or by an unspecified mechanical cause. Results showed that participants perceived self-generated events as shifted earlier in time (anticipation temporal judgment bias) and non-self-generated events as shifted later in time (repulsion temporal judgment bias). This latter effect was observed independently from the kind of cause (i.e., agentive or mechanical) or interaction (i.e., cooperative or competitive). We suggest that this might represent a mental process which allows discriminating events that cannot plausibly be linked to one’s own action. When an event immediately follows a self-generated one, temporal judgment biases operate as self-serving biases in order to separate self-generated events from events of another physical causality.     

Inequality in personality and temporal discounting across socioeconomic status? Assessing the evidence

Personality traits such as conscientiousness and impulsivity correlate with temporal discounting, the degree to which individuals discount the value of future relative to present rewards. These variables have, in turn, been hypothesized to relate to income inequality in the United States. A key but untested assumption of this hypothesis is that the association among these variables is distinct across socioeconomic classes. The purpose of the present research is to test that assumption. N = 1100 adults with annual income ranging from at or below the poverty line ($0–$20,000) to upper-middle class ($200,000+) completed personality measures and a measure of temporal discounting. The results of our preregistered analyses indicated a positive association of income with trait planfulness, and a negative association with trait impulsivity and one parameter of temporal discounting that captures a bias to prefer sooner rewards to a greater degree if they are delivered that day. Our results can inform psychological theories of inequality and a broader conversation about effective public policy.     

Increased activation in superior temporal gyri as a function of increment in phonetic features

A common assumption is that phonetic sounds initiate unique processing in the superior temporal gyri and sulci (STG/STS). The anatomical areas subserving these processes are also implicated in the processing of non-phonetic stimuli such as music instrument sounds. The differential processing of phonetic and non-phonetic sounds was investigated in this study by applying a “sound-morphing” paradigm, where the presence of phonetic features were parametrically varied, creating a step-wise transition from a non-phonetic sound into a phonetic sound. The stimuli were presented in an event-related fMRI design. The fMRI-BOLD data were analysed using parametric contrasts. The results showed a higher sensitivity for sounds containing phonetic features compared to non-phonetic sounds in the middle part of STG, and in the anterior part of the planum temporale (PT) bilaterally. Although the same areas were involved in the processing of non-phonetic sounds, a difference in activation was evident in the STG, with an increase in activation related to increment of phonetic features in the sounds. The results indicate a stimulus-driven, bottom-up process that utilizes general auditory resources in the secondary auditory cortex, depending on specific phonetic features in the sounds.     

Infant long-term memory for associations formed during mere exposure

We previously found that young infants spontaneously associate stimuli that they merely see together. Using a sensory preconditioning paradigm with 6- and 9-month-olds, we asked how long such associations remain latent before being forgotten and what exposure conditions affect their persistence. Groups were preexposed to two puppets for 1 h/day for 2 days, 1 h on 1 day, or 1 h on 1 day in two sessions; 1-27 days later, target actions were modeled on one puppet, and infants were tested with the other puppet 1 day later. The longest delay after which infants imitated the actions on the other puppet defined how long they remembered the association. The data revealed that the preexposure regimen determined retention. Regardless of exposure time, both ages remembered the association longer after two sessions, and younger infants remembered longer than older infants - for 4 weeks - after two 30-min sessions on 1 day.