On emotional innumeracy: Predicted and actual affective responses to grand-scale tragedies

The present research demonstrates that people overestimate the intensity of their emotional responses to grand-scale tragedies. Participants predicted that they would feel significantly worse if thousands of people were killed in a disaster than if only a few people were killed, and yet they exhibited an “emotional flatline,” feeling equally sad regardless of the number of people killed. This unforeseeable emotional flatline was demonstrated in response to deaths stemming from human violence and natural disasters, both close to home and far away (including hurricanes in the United States, a forest fire in Spain, and the Iraq War). Participants’ actual emotional responses were calibrated with fatalities only when abstract death tolls were translated into concrete images. We argue that affective forecasts and emotional experiences may arise from separate systems, leading to reliable forecasting errors, as well as influencing subsequent judgments.     

Ordering our world: The quest for traces of temporal organization in autobiographical memory

An experiment examined the idea, derived from the Self Memory System model (Conway & Pleydell-Pearce, 2000), that autobiographical events are sometimes tagged in memory with labels reflecting the life era in which an event occurred. The presence of such labels should affect the ease of judgments of the order in which life events occurred. Accordingly, 39 participants judged the order of two autobiographical events. Latency data consistently showed that between-era judgments were faster than within-era judgments, when the eras were defined in terms of either: (a) college versus high school, (b) academic quarter within year, or (c) academic year within school. The accuracy data similarly supported the presence of a between-era judgment effect for the college versus high school dichotomy.     

Hindsight bias redefined: It’s about time

Four experiments introduced a new conceptual and methodological approach to hindsight bias, traditionally defined as the tendency to exaggerate the a priori predictability of outcomes after they become known. By examining likelihood estimates rooted to specific time points during an unfolding event sequence (videos and short text stories), judged both in foresight and hindsight, we conceptualized hindsight bias as a contrast between two “inevitability curves,” which plotted likelihood against time. Taking timing into account, we defined three new indicators of accuracy: linear accuracy (how well hindsight judgments capture the linear trend of foresight judgments over time), rate accuracy (how well hindsight judgments reflect the slope of foresight judgments over time), and temporal accuracy (how well hindsight judgments specify the overall timing of the full envelope of foresight judgments). Results demonstrated that hindsight judgments showed linear and rate accuracy, but were biased only in terms of lack of temporal accuracy. The oft-used catchphrase “knew it all along effect” was found to be a misnomer, in that participants were well aware in hindsight that their earlier foresight judgments reflected uncertainty. The current research therefore points to one way in which retrospective judgments can be considered biased, yet simultaneously suggests that considerable accuracy exists when people render such judgments.     

Let me take the wheel: Illusory control and sense of agency

Illusory control refers to an effect in games of chance where features associated with skilful situations increase expectancies of success. Past work has operationalized illusory control in terms of subjective ratings or behaviour, with limited consideration of the relationship between these definitions, or the broader construct of agency. This study used a novel card-guessing task in 78 participants to investigate the relationship between subjective and behavioural illusory control. We compared trials in which participants (a) had no opportunity to exercise illusory control, (b) could exercise illusory control for free, or (c) could pay to exercise illusory control. Contingency Judgment and Intentional Binding tasks assessed explicit and implicit sense of agency, respectively. On the card-guessing task, confidence was higher when participants exerted control than in the baseline condition. In a complementary model, participants were more likely to exercise control when their confidence was high, and this effect was accentuated in the pay condition relative to the free condition. Decisions to pay were positively correlated with control ratings on the Contingency Judgment task, but were not significantly related to Intentional Binding. These results establish an association between subjective and behavioural illusory control and locate the construct within the cognitive literature on agency.     

Decision by sampling

We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an attribute's subjective value is constructed from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons to a sample of attribute values drawn from memory and is its rank within the sample. We assume that the sample reflects both the immediate distribution of attribute values from the current decision's context and also the background, real-world distribution of attribute values. DbS accounts for concave utility functions; losses looming larger than gains; hyperbolic temporal discounting; and the overestimation of small probabilities and the underestimation of large probabilities.     

Reactivity of Tic Observation Procedures to Situation and Setting

Tic frequency was assessed and compared across home and clinic as well as three experimentally-manipulated situations in order to assess the phenomenon of tic reactivity. Forty-three youngsters with chronic tic disorder recruited from two geographically-distinct sites were videotaped over three weekly laboratory visits under each of the following conditions: (1) alone/camera present, (2) other present/camera present, and (3) alone/camera hidden. Contrary to expectation, more tics were observed during overt as compared to covert observation, while the presence of another person had no overall impact on tic expression. Mean tic counts obtained from clinic observation did not significantly differ from those obtained at home collected either one day before or after. Tic frequency counts were remarkably stable over the three weekly assessments both at home and clinic. Study findings are consistent with past observations that tic expression can be influenced by environmental factors and suggest the stability of tic frequency may exhibit greater temporal and setting stability than previously thought. The clinical and research implications of these results are discussed.     

A cheap telemetric system for analyzing gait.

This study presents a technique for gait analysis, developed for the assessment of footfall timing and speed. The system in question consists of a transmitter, a receiver, a conductive walkway and a PC with the appropriate software.The technique was first tested for accuracy and repeatability with known signals, and was validated with a group of 20 healthy male adults (mean age = 34 years, S.D. = 5.5). The results thus obtained were similar to those reported in the literature for corresponding groups. Then, measurements on 10 children suffering from cerebral palsy (spastic hemiplegia) were performed. Gait analysis was carried out just before surgery and one year post-operatively. The results confirm the validity of the technique for measurements on orthopedic patients and its efficiency for functional evaluation of gait improvement after surgery.     

Cogex: A semantically and contextually enriched logic prover for question answering

This paper presents the architecture and functionality of a logic prover designed for question answering. The approach transforms questions and answer passages into logic representations based on syntactic, semantic and contextual information. World knowledge supplements the linguistic, ontological, and temporal axioms supplied to the prover which renders a deep understanding of the relationship between the question and answer text. The trace of the proofs provides a basis for generating human comprehensible answer justifications. The results show that the prover boosts the performance of the Question Answering system on TREC 2004 questions by 12%.     

注意在短时距估计中的作用

注意一直是时间知觉研究的一个重要问题。本文综述了研究已经取得一些较为一致的结果：在双任务程序中对时间任务的注意越多,时距估计越准确;在单一任务中对目标刺激的时间属性注意越多,对该刺激的持续时距估计越准确;在时间导向任务中,个体可以有效地、主动把注意导向未来的某段时距,那么将对出现在那个时刻的刺激做出更好的反应。最后,讨论了现有研究中存在的、以及今后研究中需要着重考虑的问题。