Aggregation of opinions based on correlated cues and advisors

We study the process by which decision makers (DMs) aggregate probabilistic opinions from multiple, correlated sources with a special emphasis on the determinants of the DM's confidence, which is a predictor of the DM's willingness to accept the implications of the aggregation process. Our model assumes that (a) DM combines the advisors' opinions by weighting them according to the amount of information underlying them, and (b) the DM's confidence increases as a function of a variety of factors that reduce the variance of the aggregate. We report results of three studies that manipulate the predictive validity of the cues and their inter‐correlations. Most of the models' predictions are supported but, contrary to the model's prediction, the DMs' confidence is not sensitive to the inter‐cue correlation. The best predictors of the DMs' confidence are the perceived predictability of the event, the level of agreement among the advisors, and the advisors' self‐reports of confidence. This pattern of results is explained by the ‘system neglect’ hypothesis. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing Children's Homework Performance: Development of Multi-Dimensional, Multi-Informant Rating Scales

Efforts to develop interventions to improve homework performance have been impeded by limitations in the measurement of homework performance. This study was conducted to develop rating scales for assessing homework performance among students in elementary and middle school. Items on the scales were intended to assess student strengths as well as deficits in homework performance. The sample included 163 students attending two school districts in the Northeast. Parents completed the 36-item Homework Performance Questionnaire — Parent Scale (HPQ-PS). Teachers completed the 22-item teacher scale (HPQ-TS) for each student for whom the HPQ-PS had been completed. A common factor analysis with principal axis extraction and promax rotation was used to analyze the findings. The results of the factor analysis of the HPQ-PS revealed three salient and meaningful factors: student task orientation/efficiency, student competence, and teacher support. The factor analysis of the HPQ-TS uncovered two salient and substantive factors: student responsibility and student competence. The findings of this study suggest that the HPQ is a promising set of measures for assessing student homework functioning and contextual factors that may influence performance. Directions for future research are presented.     

Own-other differences in the realism of some metacognitive judgments

The present study investigated differences in judgments of one's own and others' knowledge (the own-other difference). Consistent with the below-average effect (e.g., Kruger, 1999), our main results showed that the participants gave lower knowledge ratings of their own extent of knowledge than of another person's extent of knowledge (Experiment 1). Furthermore, lower and more realistic judgments were found when the participants judged their own as compared with when judging another person's overall accuracy (frequency judgments) of answering knowledge questions correctly (Experiment 1 and 2). On the basis of these results it is argued that judgmental anchoring may be important also in the context of indirect comparisons, and that previous conclusions of cross-cultural psychology regarding the above-average effect may be oversimplified.     

Psychosocial correlates of parenting stress, lack of support and lack of confidence/security

The purpose of the current study was to identify important correlates of parenting stress, frequently conceptualized as a mediator of suboptimal family function, and of social support and confidence/security, often regarded as buffers. Potential correlates of these concepts were assessed in questionnaires at delivery and at one year, in a sample of 16,000 families in Sweden. Predictors (1) of parenting stress were parental dissatisfaction and poor child sleeping patterns; (2) of lack of support included lack of confidence/security, parents born abroad, single motherhood, and maternal health problems; and (3) of lack of confidence/security were lack of support and serious life events. Mothers lacking social support or confidence/security exhibited significantly higher stress. Although parenting stress is a complex phenomenon certain risk factors can be emphasized, such as sleep problems which appear more important than child health problems. These risk factors can be used both in efforts to prevent stress and in studies of stress effects.     

学生提取自信度判断准确性的发展

采用3×3×2(年龄,材料,性别)三因素混合实验设计,按照学习成绩好、中、差分层随机选取小二、初二、大二学生被试各18名,其中男女各半,利用不同难度的材料,对被试提取自信度准确性的发展进行了考察。被试的判断等级与被试的记忆成绩之间的两点距随年龄而变化。而这种变化在不同难度间有不同的表现。(1)提取自信度准确性从小二到初二发展迅速,表现出显著差异;初二到大二阶段年龄差异不显著。材料难度对不同年级的被试提取自信度判断准确性的影响不同。材料难度越小,提取自信度准确性发展得越早。(2)提取自信度准确性发展的性别差异不显著。     

Extracting a maximum of useful information from statistical research data

The practice of statistical inference in psychological research is critically reviewed. Particular emphasis is put on the fast pace of change from the sole reliance on null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) to the inclusion of effect size estimates, confidence intervals, and an interest in the Bayesian approach. We conclude that these developments are helpful for psychologists seeking to extract a maximum of useful information from statistical research data, and that seven decades of criticism against NHST is finally having an effect.     

Same destination,different paths: When and how does observing others' choices and reasoning alter confidence in our own choices?

Seeing others make the same decision we do does not always increase choice confidence or tell the whole story of social influence when consumers expect to have to publically discuss their choice and reasoning. Instead, consumers' confidence in their publically stated choices can be diminished if observed others make the same choice but justify the choice using different reasoning. This effect occurs because confidence in one's own reasoning is thrown into doubt, rather than due to a desire to affiliate with the observed other. These effects are eliminated in both private choice contexts and in rejection versus selection tasks.     

Political Violence in Northern Ireland

This study examined political violence, focusing on paramilitary activity in Northern Ireland, particularly that of the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA). The study argued that the parameters of such behavior are similar in some important respects for all conflict-oriented groups, whether national armed forces or paramilitary organizations. The motivation, personal characteristics, and proximate situational influences involved in the violence in Northern Ireland are considered. The analysis draws on concepts and research from social psychology and attempts to construct a tentative psychological framework to facilitate an understanding of political violence in general.     

The research agenda: the vital need for empirical research in child psychotherapy

In this paper I shall describe how work discussion groups offered to staff on-site as part of a mental health in schools outreach project can have a significant impact on the thinking, attitudes and culture within a school. Through the use of some detailed examples of these work discussion groups in action, I hope to illustrate the way these groups can enable staff to enhance their observational skills, develop a deeper understanding of the factors that impact on learning, behaviour and teaching, and reduce staff stress. Finally, I hope to highlight the ways in which such groups not only extend staff skills in engaging with pupils at risk of emotional breakdown and school exclusion, but can also promote a learning environment for all, in which development and growth is promoted at a personal, professional and whole-school level.     

不同列队呈现方式下反馈对目击证人辨认自信心的影响

采用辨认后反馈范式研究不同队列呈现方式下反馈对目击证人辨认自信心的影响。结果发现：（1）所有辨认者中,反馈组被试自信心显著高于控制组被试的自信心;反馈方式与辨认选择的交互作用显著,辨认选择与列队呈现方式的交互作用显著;（2）积极辨认者中,反馈组被试的自信心显著高于控制组被试的自信心;正确辨认被试的自信心显著高于错误辨认被试的自信心。结果表明：目击辨认中存在辨认后反馈效应;积极辨认者中辨认自信心可以作为辨认准确性的一个参考指标。