Globalization Shuffles Cards of the World Pack: In Which Direction is the Global Economic-Political Balance Shifting?

The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening and its periphery begins to strengthen. At the same time there is a continuing divergence between the main bulk of developing countries and the group of the poorest developing states. The article also explains why the globalization was bound to lead to the explosive rise of many developing countries and the relative weakening of the developed economies. In the forthcoming decades this trend is likely to continue (although, of course, not without certain interruptions). It is also demonstrated that this convergence constitutes a necessary condition for the next technological breakthrough. This has important implications for the hegemony debates. A rather popular theory of hegemony cycles implies that the eclipse of the global hegemony of the United States should be followed by the emergence of a new global hegemon. This generates the dichotomy of the two main current points of view—either the United States will continue the global leadership in the forthcoming decades, or it will be replaced by China in this capacity. We do not find the study of the future within this dichotomy fruitful. We believe that in a direct connection with the development of globalization processes the hegemony cycle pattern is likely to come to its end, which will lead to the World System reconfiguration and the emergence of its new structure that will allow the World System to continue its further development without a hegemon.     

Psychometric Properties of the Dyadic Parent-Child Interaction Coding System in The Netherlands

Abstract

The current study explored the psychometric properties of a parent-child interaction observation system, the Dyadic Parent-Child Interaction Coding System (DPICS) in the Netherlands. Participants included 31 Dutch mother-child dyads and 86?U.S. mother-child dyads for a community sample (2–7?years; 50% boys). Good one-week test-retest reliability was demonstrated among the Dutch sample. Similarities were found between Dutch and U.S. samples on most interaction codes, but mothers in the U.S. sample used more directive behaviors (e.g., commands) in some situations. Findings suggest that the DPICS is a reliable measure of mother-child interactions in the Dutch population. Cultural issues regarding the use of the DPICS are discussed.     

Response to restrictive policies: Reconciling system justification and psychological reactance

Here we propose a dual process model to reconcile two contradictory predictions about how people respond to restrictive policies imposed upon them by organizations and systems within which they operate. When participants’ attention was not drawn to the restrictive nature of the policy, or when it was, but their cognitive resources were restricted, we found evidence supporting a prediction based on System Justification Theory: Participants reacted favorably to restrictive policies, endorsing them and downplaying the importance of the restricted freedom. Only when we cued participants to focus their undivided attention on the restrictive nature of the policy did we find evidence supporting a prediction based on psychological reactance: Only then did participants display reactance and respond negatively to the policies.     

A Taste for Justice: Unpacking Identity Politics in a Nascent Democracy

This article examines attention to justice cues in the novel context of the nascent democracy of Tanzania. Using secondary national survey data, we illustrate Tanzanian citizens' attention to justice cues. We then test two competing hypotheses about the impact of religious identity on attention to justice cues. The first hypothesized model, based on System Justification Theory, predicts that subordinate group members (Muslims) will stay more loyal than dominant group members (Christians) to their government due to a decreased attention to justice cues. The second hypothesized model, based on the relational model of procedural justice, predicts that subordinate group members (Muslims) will dissent more than dominant group members (Christians) from their government due to an increased attention to justice cues. Multiple regression and mediational analyses indicate support for the procedural justice framework, with trust in the dominant political party mediating the relationship between process satisfaction and party identification. Implications for political and psychological theorizing about democratic processes will be discussed.     

Exploratory structural equation modeling,bifactor models,and standard confirmatory factor analysis models: Application to the BASC-2 Behavioral and Emotional Screening System Teacher Form

Several psychological assessment instruments are based on the assumption of a general construct that is composed of multiple interrelated domains. Standard confirmatory factor analysis is often not well suited for examining the factor structure of such scales. This study used data from 1885 elementary school students (mean age = 8.77 years, SD = 1.47 years) to examine the factor structure of the Behavioral Assessment System for Children, Second Edition (BASC-2) Behavioral and Emotional Screening System (BESS) Teacher Form that was designed to assess general risk for emotional/behavioral difficulty among children. The modeling sequence included the relatively new exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) approach and bifactor models in addition to more standard techniques. Findings revealed that the factor structure of the BASC-2 BESS Teacher Form is multidimensional. Both ESEM and bifactor models showed good fit to the data. Bifactor models were preferred on conceptual grounds. Findings illuminate the hypothesis-generating power of ESEM and suggest that it might not be optimal for instruments designed to assess a predominant general factor underlying the data.     

Does “Arab Spring” Mean The Beginning Of World System Reconfiguration?

In a previous article, “The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future” (Grinin and Korotayev 2011 Grinin, L. E. 2011. The coming epoch of new coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future. World Futures, 67(8): 531–563. [Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. That is why in the present article we develop this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on the eve of revolutionary events, as well as causes and consequences of the Arab Revolutions. The article also offers an analysis of similar historical World System reconfigurations starting with the sixteenth-century Reformation. The analysis is based on the theory (developed by the authors) of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. Thus, we show that the asynchrony of development of various functional subsystems of the World System is a cause of the synchrony of major political changes. In other words, within the globalization process, political transformations tend to lag far behind economic transformations. And such lags cannot constantly increase, the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way. The article also suggests an explanation why the current catch-up of the World System political component started in the Arab World.     

Cities as Collective Beings

This article introduces the concepts of System, Autonomous System, Intelligent System, Multiple System, and Collective Being. It deals with issues related to managing these different levels of systemic aggregation. The author then discusses applications related to Architecture and design with particular reference to cities.     

Book Reviews

Scruton, Roger Modern Philosophy: An Introduction and Survey
Fraser, Nancy and Bartky, Sandra Lee (eds) Revaluing French Feminisms: Critical Essays on Difference, Agency and Culture
Friedman, Marilyn What are Friends For? Feminist Perspectives on Personal Relationships and Moral Theory     

Directions in Connectionist Research: Tractable Computations Without Syntactically Structured Representations

Should connectionists abandon the quest for tractably computable cognitive transition functions while retaining syntactically structured mental representations? We argue, in opposition to Horgan, that it should not. We argue that the case against tractably computable functions, based upon the claimed isotropic and Quinean character of cognition, fails since cognition is not as isotropic and Quinean as Fodor and Horgan contend. Moreover, we illustrate how current research in both connectionism and cognitive neuroscience suggests that tractability can be preserved through division of overall computations into modular sub-processes, each of which is tractable. As to syntactically structured representations, we argue that they are unneeded for most cognitive tasks organisms confront, and that when they are needed, they may be provided by external representational media such as natural language. Moreover, we note that increasingly cognitive linguistics has become the ally of connectionism and that the research program of cognitive linguistics suggests that abilities to use natural languages may be developed without requiring syntactically structured mental representations to exist prior to natural language.